Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic asphalt futures market is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main contract priced at 3034.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.34% increase [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, it is noted that the total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is projected to be 2 million tons, which is a decrease of 158,000 tons month-on-month, representing a 7.3% decline, and a year-on-year decrease of 276,000 tons, equating to a 12.1% drop, providing supportive factors for the market [2] - On the demand side, it is analyzed that there will be a rain and snow weather event in the eastern and central regions over the next ten days, leading to lower temperatures after New Year's Day. Road projects in northern regions are largely halted, reducing demand to seasonal lows, with speculative demand being the primary driver. Due to funding constraints, the increase in demand from southern regions is limited, indicating an overall weak demand outlook [2] - Regarding inventory, it is reported that there was a significant reduction in inventory in East China during the week of December 29, with a slight decrease in overall social inventory in Shandong. The reduction in manufacturer inventory is attributed to intermittent production halts at major refineries in the region and relatively good demand [2] - Looking ahead, it is stated that the shipping volume in East and South China remains acceptable, with low-priced circulating resources decreasing. Refineries in Shandong are maintaining stable contract deliveries, and the supply rhythm is steady. Recent weather conditions in the north have facilitated a small release of construction demand, although most asphalt is being stored. Some inventory shipments in East China are performing well, with a slight decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory this week. Short-term price movements are expected to follow changes in crude oil prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the short - term price of asphalt futures will continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner, with the international oil price under pressure and acting as the main driving force for asphalt futures, and the price center fluctuating with crude oil [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) fluctuated downward from October 9th to 10th, with an interval decline of 2.12% and an interval amplitude of 2.44% [9]. - Relevant data on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference are presented, but specific data trends are not described in detail [13][17][21]. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong refineries is - 471.49 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei refineries is - 413.44 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction) [27]. - **Price Difference**: On October 10th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 279.46 yuan/ton, up 21.48 yuan/ton from September 30th. On October 9th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 184.34 yuan/ton, up 2.36 yuan/ton from September 30th [31][34]. - **Production**: The operating rate of China's heavy - traffic asphalt was 40.1%, a week - on - week increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The weekly output was 70.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.49% and a year - on - year increase of 44.24%. The weekly operating rate of Shandong asphalt was 51.7%, a week - on - week increase of 15.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The weekly output was 26.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.74% and a year - on - year increase of 61.98% [38][40][43][46]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [50]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%. The weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 75.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.90%. In Shandong, the in - plant inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64% [53][56]. - **Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days in China are provided, with heavy rainfall in many regions [60]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The supply shows a significant recovery. After the holiday, as major refineries resume production, the national asphalt operating rate is expected to continue to rise, and the market supply will be loose [68]. - **Demand**: The demand is differentiated. The demand in the northern market is currently supported by road project rush - work but is expected to weaken with the temperature drop. The demand in the southern market is stable due to project start - up and payment issues [68]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory shows a short - term destocking trend, while the in - plant inventory increases [68]. - **Cost**: Weak economic data and seasonal off - season suppress the demand for US crude oil and gasoline, increasing the pressure on oil inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on international oil prices [69]. - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner and breaks through the oscillation range formed since late August [69].