12月30日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，沥青期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 3034.00元/吨，涨幅1.34%。 供给端，中辉期货指出，2026年1月份国内沥青总排产量为200万吨，环比下降15.8万吨，降幅7.3%，同 比下降27.6万吨，降幅12.1%，存利好支撑。 需求端，建信期货分析称，未来十天中东部将有一次雨雪天气过程，元旦后中东部大部气温将转为偏 低。北方地区道路项目基本停工，刚需降至季节性低点，以投机需求为主。资金限制下，南方需求增量 有限。总体偏弱。 库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，12月29日当周华东去库明显，山东累库整体社会库存小幅下 降；厂家库存方面，受区内主力炼厂间歇停产及需求较好影响，华东地区库存去库明显。 展望后市，新湖期货表示，近期华东华南地区发货量尚可，低价流通资源减少；山东地区各炼厂平稳交 付合同，供应节奏保持稳定，需求端，北方近期天气条件尚可，带动小范围施工需求释放，但多数沥青 入库为主；华东地区部分呢库存发货表现亮眼。本周厂库小幅下降社会库小幅增加。短期盘面价格跟随 原油价格变动。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the short - term price of asphalt futures will continue the pattern of weakening in a volatile manner, with the international oil price under pressure and acting as the main driving force for asphalt futures, and the price center fluctuating with crude oil [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) fluctuated downward from October 9th to 10th, with an interval decline of 2.12% and an interval amplitude of 2.44% [9]. - Relevant data on Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt basis, Shandong - South China heavy - traffic asphalt price difference, and Shandong - Northeast heavy - traffic asphalt price difference are presented, but specific data trends are not described in detail [13][17][21]. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong refineries is - 471.49 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei refineries is - 413.44 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction) [27]. - **Price Difference**: On October 10th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the SC*6.6 main contract was 279.46 yuan/ton, up 21.48 yuan/ton from September 30th. On October 9th, the price difference between the closing price of the BU main contract and the WTI closing price was 184.34 yuan/ton, up 2.36 yuan/ton from September 30th [31][34]. - **Production**: The operating rate of China's heavy - traffic asphalt was 40.1%, a week - on - week increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The weekly output was 70.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.49% and a year - on - year increase of 44.24%. The weekly operating rate of Shandong asphalt was 51.7%, a week - on - week increase of 15.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The weekly output was 26.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.74% and a year - on - year increase of 61.98% [38][40][43][46]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The operating rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [50]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%. The weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 75.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.90%. In Shandong, the in - plant inventory of 54 sample enterprises was 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.8%. The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises was 38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64% [53][56]. - **Weather Forecast**: Specific weather forecasts for the next three days in China are provided, with heavy rainfall in many regions [60]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The supply shows a significant recovery. After the holiday, as major refineries resume production, the national asphalt operating rate is expected to continue to rise, and the market supply will be loose [68]. - **Demand**: The demand is differentiated. The demand in the northern market is currently supported by road project rush - work but is expected to weaken with the temperature drop. The demand in the southern market is stable due to project start - up and payment issues [68]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory shows a short - term destocking trend, while the in - plant inventory increases [68]. - **Cost**: Weak economic data and seasonal off - season suppress the demand for US crude oil and gasoline, increasing the pressure on oil inventory accumulation and putting downward pressure on international oil prices [69]. - **Technical Aspect**: The main contract of asphalt futures (BU2511) shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner and breaks through the oscillation range formed since late August [69].