交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.3624%，环比减少3.78个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.305万吨，环比减少3.22%,样本企业 产量为49万吨，环比减少11.39%,样本企业装置检修量预估为96.1万吨，环比增加1.05%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.4%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为7.4823%，环比增加0.38个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路 改性沥青开工率为20%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为25%，环比持平。高于历史平均水平； 总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为188.99元/吨，环比持平，周度山东地炼延迟焦化利润为627.0286元/吨，环 比减少4.39%，沥青加工利润持平，沥青与延迟焦化利润差减少；原油走 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the economic recession expectations in Europe and the United States are strengthening. The supply pressure is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries reduce production. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support. The asphalt processing loss is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. - The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The social and factory inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing. - The MA20 of the futures price is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3423 - 3467 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic asphalt total planned production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all at relatively low levels [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9]. - **Basis**: On September 17, the Shandong spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. The factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production reduction will reduce supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents the price trends of different asphalt contracts, including the price changes, basis trends, and spreads between different contracts. It also shows the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as their price ratios [17][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Historical Data**: The historical data of asphalt prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators from 2020 - 2025 are presented through various charts, which helps to analyze the market trends and patterns [20][23][26][29][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between asphalt and coking are analyzed through charts, showing their historical trends [38][41]. - **Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt are presented, including the output of small - sample enterprises and the overall monthly output [44][49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of different types, such as social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory, are analyzed, showing their changes over time [10][64][68]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil are presented, which are important raw materials for asphalt production [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The asphalt capacity utilization rate and the estimated maintenance loss are analyzed, showing the changes in production capacity and maintenance conditions [59][61]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is analyzed from multiple aspects, including the production of petroleum coke, the apparent consumption of asphalt, the investment in highway construction, the sales of asphalt - related machinery, and the opening rates of different types of asphalt [80][83][86][90][95]. - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt, are presented, showing the demand situation in different application scenarios [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, including the monthly production, import, export, and inventory data from January 2024 to September 2025 [106].