1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the research report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 29.3624%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.39%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 27.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%. The asphalt processing profit remained flat, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: Fundamentals are bearish; the basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bullish; the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3105 - 3161 [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand - side**: Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations [9]. - **Cost - side**: Crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of contracts from 01 to 05 all increased, with increases ranging from 3.13% to 3.89%. The basis of contracts from 01 to 05 showed different degrees of change [16]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. Factory inventory was 572,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.30% [9][16]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 to 2026, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt crack spreads against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is beneficial for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the relative value of these commodities [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the spot market situation [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Asphalt Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [77][78][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2026 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2026 [98][99]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [106][107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the economic recession expectations in Europe and the United States are strengthening. The supply pressure is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries reduce production. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support. The asphalt processing loss is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. - The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The social and factory inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing. - The MA20 of the futures price is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3423 - 3467 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic asphalt total planned production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all at relatively low levels [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9]. - **Basis**: On September 17, the Shandong spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. The factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production reduction will reduce supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents the price trends of different asphalt contracts, including the price changes, basis trends, and spreads between different contracts. It also shows the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as their price ratios [17][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Historical Data**: The historical data of asphalt prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators from 2020 - 2025 are presented through various charts, which helps to analyze the market trends and patterns [20][23][26][29][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between asphalt and coking are analyzed through charts, showing their historical trends [38][41]. - **Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt are presented, including the output of small - sample enterprises and the overall monthly output [44][49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of different types, such as social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory, are analyzed, showing their changes over time [10][64][68]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil are presented, which are important raw materials for asphalt production [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The asphalt capacity utilization rate and the estimated maintenance loss are analyzed, showing the changes in production capacity and maintenance conditions [59][61]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is analyzed from multiple aspects, including the production of petroleum coke, the apparent consumption of asphalt, the investment in highway construction, the sales of asphalt - related machinery, and the opening rates of different types of asphalt [80][83][86][90][95]. - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt, are presented, showing the demand situation in different application scenarios [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, including the monthly production, import, export, and inventory data from January 2024 to September 2025 [106].