国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：延续窄幅震荡 | 供应 | 国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为40.1%，环比增加5.7%。分析原因主要是本周虽然华东个别炼厂间歇停产以及降产，但新疆天之泽、河南 丰利以及江苏新海复产沥青，加之山东胜星、东明石化以及齐鲁石化稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共49.6万吨，环比增加9.0%。分地区来看，山东地区增加最为明显，区内供应增加，加之下游赶工需求表现 尚可，炼厂出货积极性增加，带动出货量上升；而华东地区减少最多，主要因为主流炼厂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].

2025 年 9 月 25 日 沥青：跟随原油小幅偏强 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,392 | 0.56% | 3,415 | 0.68% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,337 | 0.51% | 3,362 | 0.75% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 152,942 | (29,145) | 216,897 | (14,925) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 51,155 | (4,666) | 90,322 | (2,055) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 55980 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Baoli International's main business, modified asphalt, is affected by local government debt risk resolution and significant changes in the real estate market supply-demand relationship [2] - The management team is focused on risk control, strengthening accounts receivable collection, and litigation recovery [2] - The company is transitioning to a light asset model in the general aviation sector, selling some owned aircraft at favorable prices [2] Group 2: Investment in Hongtai Technology - Baoli International plans to invest 1%-3% equity in Hongtai Technology, based on a positive outlook for the semiconductor testing equipment industry [5] - The investment will not exceed 5% of the latest audited net assets and aims to align with national strategic development [5] - Hongtai Technology's core products include SoC testing systems and chip-level packaging sorting systems, with a focus on domestic market needs [6] Group 3: Market Position and Collaboration - Hongtai Technology's next-generation high-end SoC testing equipment, MS8800, has passed key performance validations, with a low domestic market penetration of testing machines [6] - The collaboration with Hongtai Technology allows Baoli International to gain deeper insights into technology evolution and market demands in the semiconductor testing sector [7] - The core team of Hongtai Technology has extensive industry experience, with over 400 employees, a significant portion of whom are in R&D [8] Group 4: Future Plans and Risks - Baoli International is exploring transformation opportunities while maintaining stable development in traditional businesses [11] - The company emphasizes compliance with state-owned enterprise regulations and securities supervision in its future plans [11] - There are currently no specific follow-up capital operation plans after the investment in Hongtai Technology [9]

"一边品茶，一边远眺巍峨的秦岭，这样的时光真美好。"9月9日，西安市民裴欣欣感叹。 如此安逸的场景不是在装扮精致的茶馆，而是在西安外环（南段）高速公路子午服务区。 陕西多处高速公路服务区实施提升改造、拓展业务边界，不仅实现新业态蓬勃发展，更切实满足了 群众的美好出行需求，赢得游客"点赞"。 服务区的焕新只是一个缩影。"十四五"期间，陕西交通领域省属企业围绕增强核心功能和核心竞争 力，持续强化改革引领，推动产业转型，为全省综合交通运输体系建设不断注入新活力。 着眼多元 丰富业态 在房车庭院内边烧烤边仰望星空、带孩子在VR体验馆开启一场探险之旅……这些场景都能在西安 外环（南段）高速公路子午服务区实现。 "服务区引入了37种业态，集吃、住、玩于一体，目前已成为周边游客节假日休憩的重要场所。"陕 西交控集团子午服务区经理陈璐说。 近年来，陕西交控集团明确服务区改造目标——主题鲜明、内涵丰富、设计现代、服务多元，陆续 完成以子午服务区、高桥服务区为代表的10处主题特色服务区打造，目前还有多处服务区正在进行改 造。 "挖掘服务区属地自然资源、区位优势，因地制宜实施改造，不仅为服务区发展注入新动能，还通 过就业帮扶、消费 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the economic recession expectations in Europe and the United States are strengthening. The supply pressure is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries reduce production. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support. The asphalt processing loss is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. - The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The social and factory inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing. - The MA20 of the futures price is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3423 - 3467 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic asphalt total planned production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all at relatively low levels [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9]. - **Basis**: On September 17, the Shandong spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. The factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production reduction will reduce supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents the price trends of different asphalt contracts, including the price changes, basis trends, and spreads between different contracts. It also shows the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as their price ratios [17][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Historical Data**: The historical data of asphalt prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators from 2020 - 2025 are presented through various charts, which helps to analyze the market trends and patterns [20][23][26][29][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between asphalt and coking are analyzed through charts, showing their historical trends [38][41]. - **Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt are presented, including the output of small - sample enterprises and the overall monthly output [44][49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of different types, such as social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory, are analyzed, showing their changes over time [10][64][68]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil are presented, which are important raw materials for asphalt production [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The asphalt capacity utilization rate and the estimated maintenance loss are analyzed, showing the changes in production capacity and maintenance conditions [59][61]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is analyzed from multiple aspects, including the production of petroleum coke, the apparent consumption of asphalt, the investment in highway construction, the sales of asphalt - related machinery, and the opening rates of different types of asphalt [80][83][86][90][95]. - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt, are presented, showing the demand situation in different application scenarios [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, including the monthly production, import, export, and inventory data from January 2024 to September 2025 [106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.501%，环比减少0.90个百分点，全 国样本企业出货26.35万吨，环比减少0.11%,样本企业产量为50.9万吨，环比减少2.86%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为68.5万吨，环比增加0.44%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.1%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The asphalt market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. The short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral, and attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The "Short BU, Long SC" strategy should be continued [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% week - on - week increase. The resumption of production at Hebei Xinhai and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries, led to this increase. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production was - 491.7 yuan/ton, a 122.3 yuan/ton week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% week - on - week decrease. Shipments decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU followed the weak trend of crude oil, and the spot price remained stable. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3637 yuan/ton, a 9 yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3633 - 3647 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions**: Relevant data shows the trends of trading positions and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: The report presents the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of basis and monthly spreads in different regions [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 3.6% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase [22][26]. - **Supply**: - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From September 5 - 11, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 59.9 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease and a 41.9% year - on - year increase. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.8 tons, a 1.9% decrease from September 8, and the social inventory of asphalt was 165.3 tons, a 1.4% decrease from September 8 [30]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [33]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the overall market [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [7]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, while the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The basis shows that on September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory and factory inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and refinery device maintenance volume changed, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate at 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate at 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工 rate at 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate at 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工 rate at 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; and port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, price changes, and basis changes of different contracts, as well as data on downstream demand开工 rates, asphalt coking profit spreads, weekly shipments, weekly production, weekly开工 rates, and weekly inventory [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, which can be used for relative value analysis [31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, which is useful for understanding the profit differences between different production processes [39]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises, which helps to understand the sales situation of asphalt [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, which is important for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes, which helps to understand the overall supply situation of asphalt [47]. - **Merey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Merey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt, which helps to understand the production capacity of local refineries [54]. - **开工Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工rates, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of estimated maintenance losses, which is important for analyzing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59]. 3.8 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the overall inventory situation [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [69]. 3.9 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volumes, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which is important for analyzing the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72]. 3.10 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industrial applications [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [81]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), and various types of asphalt开工rates (heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), which helps to comprehensively analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84]. 3.11 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which is important for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship of asphalt [104].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the current situation of the asphalt market, including the changes in production capacity utilization, shipment volume, and price differences. The production capacity utilization has increased due to the resumption of production in some refineries, while the shipment volume has decreased in some regions due to various factors such as changes in downstream demand and project suspension [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2510 and BU2511 are 3,463 yuan/ton and 3,450 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.64% and 0.88%. The trading volume of BU2510 is 31,559 lots, with an increase of 2,446 lots, and the position is 35,992 lots, with a decrease of 3,341 lots. The trading volume of BU2511 is 150,423 lots, with an increase of 37,975 lots, and the position is 244,770 lots, with an increase of 2,860 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts are 64,860 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis (Shandong - 10) is 77 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan compared to the previous day. The 10 - 11 inter - period price difference is 13 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8 yuan. The Shandong - South China price difference is 20 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The East China - South China price difference is 120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price is 3,540 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price is 3,640 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate is 39.59%, with a decrease of 0.63%, and the refinery inventory rate is 27.11%, with an increase of 0.66% [1]. Market Information - **Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 4 - 10, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% increase from the previous period. This was due to the resumption of asphalt production at Hebei Xinghai's large - scale plant and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt led to a decrease in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [13]. - **Modified Asphalt Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 0.2% decrease year - on - year. The supply of modified asphalt increased significantly, reaching a new high for the year and approaching the same - period level [13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [7].