交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058%，环比减少0.91个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工 率为2%，环比减少7.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为5%， 环比减少10.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为34.57元/吨，环比减少25.00%，周度山东地 炼延迟焦化利润为176.2071元/吨，环 ...

| | | 投资询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】31号 C 国贸期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沥青数据日报 | | | | | | 是浙官 | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 数据来源:钢联 | 卢钊毅 | | | 2026/1/27 | | 글 | | 华东 东北 | 华北 | 华南 | 西北 | 山东 | | 现点 | 现值 | 3200 3440 | 3200 | 3220 | 3430 | 3140 | | 货 区 域 | 前值 | 3190 3440 | 3200 | 3190 | 3430 | 3090 | | 涨幅 | | 10 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 50 | | 期 号 | | BU2602 BU2603 | | | | | | 现值 | | 3262 | 3279 | | | | | स्त हो | 前值 | 3222 | 3236 | | | | | 涨幅 | | 1.24% | 1.33% | | | | I ...

本期（20260114-0120），国内69家样本改性沥青企业产能利用率为6.3%，环比减少0.5%，同比增加 3.5%。改性沥青对沥青周度消费量为3.7万吨，环比降幅8.1%。 机构观点汇总： 新湖期货：市场传山东某炼厂回购前期合同，部分市场参与者认为，当前炼厂存在原料紧缺的情况。近 期贸易商二季度原料报价偏高，市场预计后续难再采购到高经济性的原料，成本有所增加。目前，现货 市场基本保持稳定，北方需求基本停滞，以缓慢入库为主，南方地区发货稳定，市场低价资源减少。年 前需求难有起色，盘面价格跟随原油价格变动，关注原料情况。 建信期货：供应端，胜星石化16日开始计划转产沥青，但齐鲁石化（600002）15日开始转产渣油，下周 沥青装置开工负荷率预计基本持平。需求端，未来十天冷空气势力增强，黄淮至江南有明显雨雪过程。 华东、华中等地道路施工项目可能逐步进入收尾或停工阶段。北方地区冬储合同将持续到货，预计需求 端整体波动有限。伴随终端需求季节性回落，且缺乏新增利好因素支撑，沥青市场情绪或扔偏谨慎，投 机需求预计增量有限。总体来看沥青原料利多逐步消化后，供需再度回到均衡水平，预计价格震荡运 行，关注油价表现。 本周（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guochuang High-tech has experienced fluctuations in stock price and trading volume, with a current market value of 2.648 billion yuan and a year-to-date stock price decline of 12.69% [1] - As of November 28, the number of shareholders for Guochuang High-tech decreased by 6.46% to 27,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.91% to 31,721 shares [2] - The company reported a revenue of 615 million yuan for the period from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 26.33 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.99% [2] Group 2 - Guochuang High-tech has cumulatively distributed 255 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3] - The company's main business involves the development, production, and sales of modified asphalt products, with revenue composition including 75.75% from heavy traffic asphalt and 18.81% from modified asphalt [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall market is affected by factors such as high - cost crude oil, insufficient demand for high - price goods, and the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 0.18 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume increased by 14.29% month - on - month. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may be reduced next week [8] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt (except for road - modified asphalt) have low and declining or flat opening rates [8] - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the short - term support [9] - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession [11][12] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's asphalt market overview, including the prices, basis, inventory, production, and profit of different contracts and varieties, as well as their changes compared with the previous values [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42] - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47] - **Production**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Shows the historical monthly production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [55][56] - **Operating Rate**: Displays the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61] - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68] - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: Displays the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71] - **Import - Export Situation**: Shows the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][76][77] - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [85][86][87] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][91][92][93] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: Displays the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: Shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: Displays the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][101][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt [104]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Guochuang High-tech has shown a positive trend recently, with a notable increase in both stock price and trading volume, indicating potential investor interest and market confidence in the company [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 17, Guochuang High-tech's stock price rose by 2.19% to 3.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 48.87 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.75%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 2.987 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 1.51%, but it has increased by 4.15% over the last five trading days, 10.88% over the last 20 days, and 4.82% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guochuang High-tech reported a revenue of 615 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -26.33 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 42.99% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 255 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Business Overview - Guochuang High-tech, established on March 25, 2002, and listed on March 23, 2010, is located in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The company specializes in the development, production, and sales of modified asphalt products and real estate intermediary services [1]. - The revenue composition of Guochuang High-tech includes: 75.75% from heavy-duty asphalt, 18.81% from modified asphalt, 2.63% from road engineering construction and maintenance, 1.72% from modified asphalt processing, 0.77% from other products, and 0.34% from emulsified asphalt [1].

Report Date - October 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is facing shipment pressure [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,250 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.22%, and 3,246 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.12%. Its trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots, and the open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,184 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.84%, and 3,180 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.13%. Its trading volume was 43,274 lots, a decrease of 9,101 lots, and the open interest was 82,394 lots, a decrease of 2,167 lots [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 42,370 lots, with no change [2] - **Spread**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 0, down 10 [2] - The East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,451 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,572 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,444 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: - The refinery operating rate was 42.77% on October 13, up 4.47% from October 9 [2] - The refinery inventory rate was 28.70% on October 13, up 2.23% from October 9 [2] Market News - From October 9 - 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 35.8%, a 1.3% increase from the previous week. Some refineries in Henan, Shandong and Shandong stopped production or switched to residue production, while some refineries in East China and Jiangsu had intermittent production [17] - From October 7 - 14, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a 2.9% increase from the previous week. The shipments in East China and Northeast China increased significantly [17] - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a 4.7% decrease from before the holiday and a 2.5% decrease year - on - year. The demand in the north decreased due to cold weather, and continuous rainfall in Central China also suppressed demand [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Hanxi - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019174 - Futures Trading Qualification Number: F3082452 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, asphalt continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. It followed the rise of crude oil, but the shipping resistance significantly increased, and the factory inventory accumulation rate increased month - on - month. In the short term, the valuation of asphalt may be weaker than that of crude oil. Attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was 3,621 - 3,631 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding the reverse spread for the inter - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. Although some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns and production cuts, the resumption of asphalt production by Xinjiang Tianze, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai, along with the stable production of Shandong Shengxing, Dongming Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical, led to the increase in capacity utilization [4]. - **Demand**: The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.0%. Shandong had the most significant increase due to increased supply and good downstream construction demand. East China had the largest decrease because of intermittent production of major refineries and the preference of traders for low - cost resources in social warehouses [4]. - **Valuation**: The BU futures fluctuated and strengthened with crude oil, while the spot price remained stable. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt decreased, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The prices in Southwest, South China, Shandong, and East China showed a downward trend, while the price in North China increased slightly [4]. 2. Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oil varieties have different asphalt yields, and there are also impacts from import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight [7]. - **Futures - Market Price and Trading Positions**: The report presents data on the trading positions of asphalt futures, the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil, the spread between BU and SC, and the warehouse receipts of BU in different regions [9][10][11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: It shows the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions, the price differences between regions, and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report provides historical data on the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, as well as the calendar spread data [15][16][17]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [22]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From September 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 9.0% month - on - month. Shandong had the most significant increase, while East China had the largest decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [25]. - **Supply** - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.35 million tons. From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total production was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of 54 asphalt samples increased by 0.9%, and the social inventory of 104 samples decreased by 1.8% [31]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: It presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the total inventory rate of the asphalt market over the years [43][44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].