交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为32.838%，环比减少2.40个百分点，全 国样本企业出货23.73万吨，环比减少4.50%,样本企业产量为54.8万吨，环比减少6.80%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为64.8万吨，环比增加11.15%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为30.7%，环比减少0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开 ...

2025 年 8 月 22 日 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,496 | 0.09% | 3,500 | 0.11% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,465 | 0.32% | 3,468 | 0.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 7,439 | (834) | 20,537 | (3,225) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 123,366 | (22,655) | 211,461 | (6,077) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows signs of weakness, with a downward trend in prices and a recent decrease in shipments. However, there has been a slight increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt and modified asphalt enterprises. The market is influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, regional demand, and refinery production schedules [1][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures prices**: On August 13, 2025, BU2509 closed at 3,534 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the night - session closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; BU2510 closed at 3,503 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, and the night - session closed at 3,471 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 12,434 lots, a decrease of 4,801 lots, and the open interest was 41,183 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 123,189 lots, an increase of 2,907 lots, and the open interest was 224,999 lots, an increase of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt were 73,750 lots, with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,730 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Refinery indicators**: As of August 7, the refinery operating rate was 34.33%, a decrease of 0.07%, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, a decrease of 0.20% [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market Information - **Shipment volume**: From August 6 - 12, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and East China regions [16]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: From August 7 - 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.9%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period. From August 6 - 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.1%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period and an increase of 3.8% year - on - year [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - **Futures**: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - **Spot**: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - **Spread**: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - **Inventory**: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market brought by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [5]. - The shipment of asphalt is slow, and the valuation continues to be weak. The supply has decreased, and the downstream demands asphalt at low prices. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and the prices in some provinces are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 28.8%, a 4.0% decrease from the previous week. The domestic asphalt processing profit has slightly increased, with a weekly average of - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply in Shandong and East China has decreased, but there is an expected slight increase in Shandong next week [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream customers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. Rain in Shandong has hindered terminal demand, while some terminal projects in East China are under concentrated construction, increasing the demand for 70 and modified asphalt [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, with an expanded range. Four regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and one region remained stable [5]. - **Strategy**: For cross - period trading, consider partial profit - taking on reverse spreads; for cross - variety trading, consider partial profit - taking on short crack spreads [5]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is related to various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different crude oils have different advantages in terms of raw material supply, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8]. - **Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on futures prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil, and price differences between regions [12][13]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The report shows the basis and calendar spread data of asphalt over the years [17][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand** - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. The road market is affected by policies, project progress, and investment [23]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [28]. - **Supply** - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries and imports. Domestic refineries include state - owned and local refineries, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production, profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week and a 12.1% increase from the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.3 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 21, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses was 185.7 tons, a 0.1% decrease from July 21 [32]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [35]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the total asphalt market inventory rates in different regions over the years [45].

Group 1 - The company, Hubei Guochuang High-tech Materials Co., Ltd., has provided a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Guochuang Road Materials Co., Ltd., for a credit limit of 80 million RMB from Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank [2][3] - The board of directors approved a guarantee limit of up to 240 million RMB for the year 2025, which is valid for 12 months from the date of the shareholders' meeting [3] - The company has a total external guarantee balance of 90 million RMB, which accounts for 19.19% of its latest audited net assets, with no overdue guarantees or litigation related to guarantees [8][9] Group 2 - Guangxi Guochuang Road Materials Co., Ltd. was established on October 8, 2005, with a registered capital of 90 million RMB and is fully owned by the company [5] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of modified asphalt and related materials, as well as road construction services [5] - The guarantee provided by the company includes coverage for principal, interest, penalties, and various costs associated with enforcing the guarantee [7][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is increasing as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, with current demand below historical average levels. - Inventory is continuously decreasing, while crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the short - term cost support. - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - In May 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The total output of sample enterprises was 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. 3.1.2 Demand - The current demand for asphalt is below historical average levels. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. 3.1.3 Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.4 Basis - On June 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3695 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 207 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; factory inventory was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [9]. 3.1.6 Expectation - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and inventory data of weekly inventory, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [16][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis 3.3.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [42][44]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工率 from 2023 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt refinery maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74][75]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Analysis - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volume from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [77][78][80]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][93][94]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use (building asphalt and modified asphalt), and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 [98][101][103]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including asphalt monthly production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

Group 1 - Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway (600377) announced that its subsidiary, Guangjing Xicheng Company, has entrusted the construction management of the Guangjing North Section Expansion Project and the Xiyi Expressway South Section Expansion Project to the Construction Bureau [1] - Contracts for the supply of asphalt and new materials for both projects have been signed with Su Gao New Materials Company, covering the period from July 1, 2025, to July 30, 2026, for the Guangjing North Section, with an estimated cost of approximately RMB 30 million in 2025 and RMB 55.34 million in 2026 [1] - The Xiyi Expressway South Section Expansion Project has a procurement period from July 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with an estimated cost of approximately RMB 226 million [1] Group 2 - The transactions are routine business contracts for the company’s subsidiary, priced at market fair value, ensuring no harm to the company's interests and no related party transactions that could lead to conflicts [2] - The collaboration with Su Gao New Materials Company is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce management costs through synergies within the group [2] - Previous agreements between the companies have been executed effectively without any defaults, indicating a low risk of non-performance for the ongoing related transactions [2]