交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2026年2月份国内地炼沥青排产量为102.3万吨，环比 降幅3.30%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为23.3701%，环比减少2.76个百 分点，全国样本企业出货15.42万吨，环比减少27.12%,样本企业产量为39万 吨，环比减少10.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为129.8万吨，环比增加26.02%, 本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为21.7%，环比减少0.11个百分点，低于历史平均 水平；建筑沥青开工率为3.3%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 率为3.7058%，环比减少0.91个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工 率为2%，环比减少7.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为5%， 环比减少10.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为34.57元/吨，环比减少25.00%，周度山东地 炼延迟焦化利润为176.2071元/吨，环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall market is affected by factors such as high - cost crude oil, insufficient demand for high - price goods, and the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 0.18 percentage points month - on - month, the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume increased by 14.29% month - on - month. The refinery has reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may be reduced next week [8] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt (except for road - modified asphalt) have low and declining or flat opening rates [8] - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the short - term support [9] - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating in the range of 2983 - 3041 [8][9] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession [11][12] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's asphalt market overview, including the prices, basis, inventory, production, and profit of different contracts and varieties, as well as their changes compared with the previous values [15] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][38] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42] - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47] - **Production**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50][51] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Shows the historical monthly production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [55][56] - **Operating Rate**: Displays the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [60][61] - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [63][64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [67][68] - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: Displays the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [70][71] - **Import - Export Situation**: Shows the historical import and export trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [73][74][76][77] - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [79][80] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [82][83] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [85][86][87] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][91][92][93] - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: Displays the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [94][95] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: Shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: Displays the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][101][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt [104]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in the price of oriented silicon steel, with a year-to-date drop of 23% [3] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises improved in October 2025, with the BCI index rising by 10.15% to 52.41 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are facing challenges, with new construction area down 19.80% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [22] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in October 2025 is 52.41, up 10.15% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [19] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce, reflecting a 2.05% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area in the real estate sector from January to October 2025 is down 19.80% [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar down 0.94% and cement price index down 0.76% [2] - The cumulative year-on-year completion area for commercial housing from January to October 2025 is down 16.90% [78] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a current rate of 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 1.00%, copper up 1.11%, and aluminum up 1.44% [2] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1094.03 points, up 3.39% [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.56, with the highest historical value being 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, which could lead to an improvement in the PB ratio [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the economic recession expectations in Europe and the United States are strengthening. The supply pressure is expected to decrease in the short - term as refineries reduce production. - The cost of crude oil is relatively high, providing some support. The asphalt processing loss is decreasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. - The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The social and factory inventories are decreasing, while the port inventory is increasing. - The MA20 of the futures price is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3423 - 3467 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic asphalt total planned production was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The refineries reduced production this week, and it is expected to reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all at relatively low levels [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9]. - **Basis**: On September 17, the Shandong spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. The factory inventory is 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production reduction will reduce supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents the price trends of different asphalt contracts, including the price changes, basis trends, and spreads between different contracts. It also shows the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as their price ratios [17][19][22][25][28][32]. - **Historical Data**: The historical data of asphalt prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators from 2020 - 2025 are presented through various charts, which helps to analyze the market trends and patterns [20][23][26][29][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit spread between asphalt and coking are analyzed through charts, showing their historical trends [38][41]. - **Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt are presented, including the output of small - sample enterprises and the overall monthly output [44][49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of different types, such as social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory, are analyzed, showing their changes over time [10][64][68]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil are presented, which are important raw materials for asphalt production [54]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The asphalt capacity utilization rate and the estimated maintenance loss are analyzed, showing the changes in production capacity and maintenance conditions [59][61]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is analyzed from multiple aspects, including the production of petroleum coke, the apparent consumption of asphalt, the investment in highway construction, the sales of asphalt - related machinery, and the opening rates of different types of asphalt [80][83][86][90][95]. - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of different types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt, are presented, showing the demand situation in different application scenarios [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, including the monthly production, import, export, and inventory data from January 2024 to September 2025 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, but the inventory is continuously being depleted. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive fundamentals, positive basis, and positive inventory trends. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States, a downward - sloping MA20 on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract with an increase in short positions [7][9][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1,225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port - diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - plant inventories are continuously being depleted, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the previous day's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, spot prices in different regions, downstream demand construction rates, asphalt coking profits, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss volumes, weekly construction rates, and weekly inventories, as well as their changes and percentage changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt processing [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative value of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the supply - side inventory situation [44][45]. - **Production**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall supply - side production situation [47][48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly asphalt construction rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the supply - side production activity [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of refineries [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73]. - The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand - side situation related to petroleum coke [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of policy on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [88][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand - side activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [96][97][99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [7]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, while the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The basis shows that on September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory and factory inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and refinery device maintenance volume changed, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate at 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate at 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工 rate at 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate at 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工 rate at 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; and port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, price changes, and basis changes of different contracts, as well as data on downstream demand开工 rates, asphalt coking profit spreads, weekly shipments, weekly production, weekly开工 rates, and weekly inventory [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, which can be used for relative value analysis [31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, which is useful for understanding the profit differences between different production processes [39]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises, which helps to understand the sales situation of asphalt [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, which is important for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes, which helps to understand the overall supply situation of asphalt [47]. - **Merey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Merey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt, which helps to understand the production capacity of local refineries [54]. - **开工Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工rates, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of estimated maintenance losses, which is important for analyzing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59]. 3.8 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the overall inventory situation [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [69]. 3.9 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volumes, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which is important for analyzing the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72]. 3.10 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industrial applications [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [81]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), and various types of asphalt开工rates (heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), which helps to comprehensively analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84]. 3.11 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which is important for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship of asphalt [104].