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大越期货沥青期货早报-20250819
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250815
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the overall current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The basis on August 14 shows that the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - The expectation is that the refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side Analysis**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road modified asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average level [7]. - **Cost - side Analysis**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis Analysis**: On August 14, the spot price in Shandong is 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 168 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the in - plant inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. Social inventory continues to accumulate, in - plant inventory continues to deplete, and port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - **Expectation Analysis**: The refinery's recent production scheduling has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The peak season stimulates demand recovery, but the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains flat. Crude oil weakens, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3449 - 3495 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand for high - priced goods is insufficient, the overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [12]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including the price changes of different contracts, weekly inventory changes (including in - plant inventory, social inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory), and the price changes of different types of asphalt (such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt) [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong basis and the East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crude oil crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [31][33] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [34][35] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][41] - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45] - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][49] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64] - **Social Inventory and In - plant Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66] - **In - plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation** - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76] - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It presents the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from August 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103][104]
大越期货沥青期货早报-20250610
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is increasing as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, with current demand below historical average levels. - Inventory is continuously decreasing, while crude oil prices are rising, strengthening the short - term cost support. - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - In May 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The total output of sample enterprises was 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. 3.1.2 Demand - The current demand for asphalt is below historical average levels. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 12.332%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 25.6%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points [8]. 3.1.3 Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.4 Basis - On June 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3695 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 207 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Social inventory was 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; factory inventory was 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [9]. 3.1.6 Expectation - It is expected that the asphalt futures market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3462 and 3514 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 12 contracts), as well as the price changes and inventory data of weekly inventory, including social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [16][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis 3.3.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. 3.3.2 Spread Analysis - **主力合约价差**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 [32][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [42][44]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工率 from 2023 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt refinery maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74][75]. 3.5.4 Import and Export Analysis - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volume from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 [77][78][80]. 3.5.5 Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [89][90][93][94]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use (building asphalt and modified asphalt), and downstream开工率 (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt) from 2019 to 2025 [98][101][103]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including asphalt monthly production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].
金属周期品高频数据周报:5月下旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量创近4个月新低水平-20250608
EBSCN· 2025-06-08 14:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6]. Core Insights - In late May, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises reached a four-month low, indicating a potential downturn in production [2][45]. - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in May 2025 was 49.09, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.20%, suggesting slight improvement in liquidity conditions [12][22]. - The report highlights a correlation between M1 and M2 growth rates and the Shanghai Composite Index, with the M1-M2 growth rate difference showing a positive trend [12][22]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The BCI SME financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [12]. - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][22]. - London gold prices increased by 0.64% compared to the previous week [12]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output for key enterprises in late May was 2.091 million tons, marking a 4.91% decrease from April [2][45]. - The national capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points [45]. - The cement price index decreased by 1.44% this week, while the average price of rebar increased by 0.32% [2][64]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points [2]. - The prices of major commodities showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel down 0.81% and copper up 0.87% [2]. Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 was 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [4]. - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1154.98 points, up 3.34% from the previous week [4]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.88%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +3.24% [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the steel industry standards [5].