石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-21 市场多空因素交织，盘面维持震荡 市场分析 1、1月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3139元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌1元/吨，跌幅 0.32%；持仓190549手，环比下降985手，成交118917手，环比下跌5845手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3240元/吨；华南，3180—3250元/吨； 华东，3130—3230元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华南地区沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格 基本持稳。受到降温以及雨雪天气影响，大部分地区沥青刚性需求持续下滑，制约市场情绪。目前来看，盘面在 定价委油供应收紧预期后进入震荡阶段。在南美局势升级、美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉 原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期持续兑现，市场开始关注替代原料的可获得性以及对成本的影响。目前来看，如 果原本流向亚洲地区的委内瑞拉原油持续流向欧美，在库存原料消耗后(预计能够用到3月份），未来国内炼厂需要 从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原料，其中可能包括俄罗斯与伊朗 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly rated in the presented content - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices, but in terms of supply and demand, the market surplus will increase marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. For crude oil, a strategy combining previous high - level short positions and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2] - FU2601 of fuel oil showed a relatively strong performance compared to LU2511 of low - sulfur fuel oil, benefiting from geopolitical premium support. The net reduction of FU warehouse receipts also gave it a certain boost [3] - The asphalt futures rose slightly after rising and then falling. Although the shipment volume slowed down in the first week of September, it is expected to be a short - term impact. The long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are recommended to be held [4] - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market has a stronger bottom support, but the follow - up upward momentum is limited under the suppression of a large number of warehouse receipts on the futures market, and it mainly moves in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, and the SC10 contract rose 0.62% during the day. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 393,900 barrels more than expected [2] - The market is in a geopolitically driven rebound period after the previous decline. A strategy combining previous high - level short positions and out - of - the money call options is mainly adopted [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The FU2601 contract opened with a small gap up, was blocked at 2,800 yuan/ton during the session, and then rose in the afternoon, with the previous resistance level turning into support. The LU2511 contract was strong in the morning but fell back under pressure at 3,400 yuan/ton [3] - The net reduction of FU warehouse receipts by 6,800 tons to 101,500 tons in the past two trading days gave it a certain boost. FU is stronger than LU due to geopolitical premium support [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures rose slightly after rising and then falling, with the November contract closing above 3,460 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 400 tons [4] - The shipment volume in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but it is expected to be a short - term impact. The long positions laid out at the beginning of the week are recommended to be held [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased due to typhoons, strengthening the support of rising import costs for the domestic market [5] - The terminal product prices are rising, and the chemical profit margins are good, maintaining a high - operating - rate pattern. The spot market has stronger bottom support, but the follow - up upward momentum on the futures market is limited under the suppression of a large number of warehouse receipts, and it mainly moves in a volatile manner [5]