1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]