【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月6日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落3.9个百分点至27.4%，较去年同期低了2.0个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于20%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，东北地区低硫沥青高价成交不畅，炼厂出货遇 阻，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.22%至26.31万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势 动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下， 委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，影响国内沥青的 生产和成本，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周华东主力炼厂间歇停产，沥青开工维持低位。北方 道路施工逐渐收尾，后续刚性需求将进一步放缓，不过北方冬储需求持续释放。南方整体需求一般， 南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - On November 28, the Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 44, with a daily change of -9; the East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 54, down 29 from the previous day; the South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was -16, a decrease of 49 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread was -18, up 4; the 12 - 03 spread was -48, up 3; the 01 - 02 spread was -7, down 2 [3] 3.2 Futures Contract Information - The price of the BU main contract (01) on November 28 was 2996, down 11 from the previous day [3] - The trading volume was 587,546, an increase of 211,118, or 23%; the open interest was 407,598, a decrease of 6,644, or 6% [3] - The combined order quantity remained at 4,690 [3] 3.3 Spot Prices - On November 28, the price of Brent crude oil was 63.3, an increase of 0.2 [3] - The price of Jingbo was 3000, unchanged; Hongrun was 2960, down 20; Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3050, down 40; Foshan Warehouse was 2980, down 60 [3] 3.4 Profits - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit on November 28 was 155, a decrease of 25; the comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries was 749, down 22 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Price**: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - **Demand - related Data**: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and the crude oil supply surplus situation is becoming more obvious, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and a weakening of the asphalt basis. The spot price is weak, and the market is cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%). Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken, while the increase in southern projects is limited [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 21,300 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Price: The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil supply surplus pattern has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The forward low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively, the asphalt basis in Shandong has weakened recently, and the spot price is weak, causing the asphalt futures price to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.10% to 3,037 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,001 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,021 to 192,751 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 37 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing a downward trend with weak oscillations. The supply - demand relationship, crude oil price changes, and capital constraints are influencing the market. With the expected increase in production from some refineries and the weakening of subsequent demand, along with the decline in crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is showing a weak performance [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 (Market Analysis) - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries plan to resume production, and asphalt output will increase [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather. The national shipping volume decreased 6.79% to 308,800 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The subsequent demand will gradually weaken [1]. - Crude oil factor: OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the oversupply pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. - Market situation: The concentrated release of long - term low - price resources from refineries has weakened the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, and the spot price has followed the decline, resulting in a weak oscillation of asphalt futures prices [1]. 2.期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2999 yuan/ton, the highest was 3058 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4500 to 193,772 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 29 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - Supply side: Some refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongyou Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative [4]. - Demand - related investment: From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in negative growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August 2025 [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising 1 percentage point to 34% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 7, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries dropped 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of oscillating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but a significant reduction in planned production for November. The downstream industry's production rate has mostly increased, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - Last week, the main refineries in North China maintained stable production and fulfilled contracts for shipment, with a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week-on-week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week-on-week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The production of Sinochem Quanzhou and some main refineries is intermittent, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Projects in many northern regions are rushing to complete work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. In the south, there is more inquiry for low-priced goods. Recently, the market has digested the news of sanctions on Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating. The long-term resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.00% to 3,193 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,189 yuan per ton, and the highest price was 3,245 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 892 to 206,960 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3,200 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 7 yuan per ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou have resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of the stock of social financing, from January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the newly added social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing a downward trend with fluctuations. The supply side has seen a decline in the asphalt operating rate, and the expected production in November is decreasing. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, and the national shipments have increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly decreased and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Due to factors such as international events affecting crude oil prices and the large decline of the asphalt basis in Shandong from a high level, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt is expected to produce 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased last week, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The refinery supply in the East China region increased, and the national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Qilu Petrochemical refinery is in stable production, and the asphalt output will increase slightly. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, the weather has improved, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly from a low level, and the asphalt basis in Shandong has decreased significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.79% to 3279 yuan/ton, near the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3263 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3295 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3762 to 197,268 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract decreased to 41 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing and Guangzhou Petrochemical have stopped production for maintenance, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - July 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1%. As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 24, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% compared with the week of October 17 and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an oscillating upward trend. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are plans to reduce production. The demand is affected by factors such as project progress, weather, and funds. The crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level, and the basis in Shandong has decreased from a high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.004 million tons (0.1%) month-on-month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year-on-year. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the asphalt output will decrease but still remain high [1]. - Demand: After the National Day holiday, the national shipment volume increased by 14.48% to 253,300 tons week-on-week, at a neutral to low level. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The demand is affected by project rush in the north, cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funds [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.31% to 3,277 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,236 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,300 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 7,848 to 194,697 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral to high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. From January to September, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to a high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].

1. Report Investment Rating There is no information about the investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints There are no clear core viewpoints explicitly stated in the given report. The report mainly presents a large amount of data on asphalt market indicators. 3. Summary by Categories Futures Contracts - **Price Changes**: From September 17 to October 16, the prices of most BU series futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the BU10 contract price decreased from 3451 to 3200, and the BU11 contract price dropped from 3445 to 3279 [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on October 16 was 269344, with a daily increase of 7215 and a weekly decrease of 53977. The open interest was 353352, with a daily increase of 6845 and a weekly increase of 30758 [4]. Spot Market - **Market Prices**: The market prices of asphalt in different regions generally declined. The Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3420, the East China market price dropped from 3640 to 3500, and the North China market price fell from 3660 to 3440 [4]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between regions also changed. For instance, the East China - South China price difference decreased from 150 to 50 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The basis values in different regions had fluctuations. The Shandong basis (+80) decreased from 125 to 171, and the East China basis decreased from 72 to 71 [4]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months changed significantly. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 112 to -79 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from -31 to 200 [4]. - **Profits**: The profits of different types of refineries generally increased. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit increased from 370 to 530, and the Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit rose from 697 to 916 [4].