研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2026 年 01 月 27 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | | | 名称 | 2026/01/27 | 2026/01/26 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | | | BU2603（主力） | 3279 | 3279 | 0 | 0.00% | | 研究员： 吴晓蓉 | | BU2604 | 3274 | 3279 | -5 | -0.15% | | 期货从业证号： | | BU2605 | 3267 | 3284 | -17 | -0.52% | | F03108405 | | SC2603 | 446.7 | 457.3 | -10.6 | -2.32% | | 投资咨询从业证号： | | Brent首行 | 64.58 | 64.96 | -0.4 | -0.58% | | Z0021537 | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 16.3 | 17.4 | -1.0 | -6.00% | | ： | 021-65789108 | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profits**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - **Imports**: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - **Refinery Profits**: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - **Road - related Machinery**: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - As the situation in Venezuela escalates, the risk on the raw material side of asphalt is increasing. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to a rise in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [1][12]. - Domestically, with the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt futures market is gradually consolidating. However, the real - world fundamentals are still relatively weak, and the potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side [1][26]. - The winter storage demand is gradually being released, and the bottom signal of the spot market is emerging. The supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first. The market pressure in the south has also eased recently, and prices are showing signs of a rebound [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Venezuela Situation Continues to Escalate, and the Risk on the Asphalt Raw Material Side Increases - The US sanctions on Venezuela this year have had a repeated impact on the supply and pricing of Venezuelan oil, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. In the first half of the year, the sanctions mainly focused on the economic level, and the changes in oil license permissions had the most significant impact on oil supply and logistics [7][8]. - In the fourth quarter, the US countermeasures against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. The situation in South America further escalated, and the shipping volume of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia decreased significantly. The floating and in - transit inventories of Merey crude oil also increased significantly [8][11]. - If the US blockade of Venezuela continues and Venezuela cannot find effective ways to circumvent it, the supply of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil and fuel oil from other regions, but the raw material cost will rise significantly [12]. Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low - price resources. Terminal demand was weak, and the spot market was under pressure. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, the supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first [25]. - The market in South China was weaker. Recently, major refineries released more supplies, and the spot price fell continuously. With the increase in raw - material - side sentiment in the futures market, the basis in South China decreased, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened, stimulating spot - side buying [25]. - After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in South China decreased, and the market pressure eased. Prices have shown signs of a rebound recently [25]. Investment Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices, and avoid chasing the rise [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity for positive spreads at low prices (BU2603 - BU2606) [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Views - As the situation in South America worsens with the US escalating military actions against Venezuela, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined, increasing risks for non-US buyers [1] - With the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt market is gradually strengthening. However, the actual fundamentals remain weak. The potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to an increase in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in the asphalt spot and futures markets. If the raw material problem is disproven, the asphalt market will face significant resistance next year due to loose fundamentals and weak oil price expectations [1] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the single-side, focus on the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices and avoid chasing the rise. For the inter-period spread, pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads (BU2603 - BU2606) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs US Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Increases Risks in Asphalt Raw Material Supply - This year, the US sanctions on Venezuela have changed, affecting Venezuelan oil supply and pricing, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. For example, in January, the US froze PDVSA's $7 billion assets in the US; in March, it imposed a 25% secondary tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil; in May, it revoked the oil exploration and export licenses of some companies; in July, it issued a limited "new general license" to Chevron [7] - In the first half of the year, the US sanctions on Venezuela mainly focused on the economic level, especially the change in oil license permissions, which led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports to Europe and the US, and more resources flowed to Asia. In the second and third quarters, the arrival volume of Venezuelan oil in China increased, the raw material supply became more abundant, and the cost support for the asphalt market weakened [8] - In the fourth quarter, the US actions against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. Since September, the US has carried out a series of military actions, and in December, it seized two Venezuelan oil tankers. As a result, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined recently, and the floating storage and in-transit inventory of Merey crude oil have increased significantly. If the US blockade continues, the supply of Venezuelan oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may face a significant increase in raw material costs [9][11] Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low-priced resources. However, the terminal demand was weak, putting pressure on the spot market. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, some refineries have switched to producing residual oil, and the supply pressure in the market has eased marginally. The spot market in the northern region has stabilized first. The escalation of the Venezuelan situation has increased concerns about the raw material side, stimulating the enthusiasm of downstream procurement and warehousing [21] - The South China market has been weaker. Recently, major refineries have released more supply, and the downstream has difficulty digesting it. The spot price has continued to decline, reaching around 2,800 yuan/ton. As the asphalt futures market is affected by the raw material sentiment, the basis in the South China region has decreased, and the spot-futures arbitrage window has opened, stimulating spot buying. After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in the South China region has decreased, and the market pressure has eased [21]

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Futures - Bitumen 2026 Annual Report - Reshaping of Bitumen Supply Pattern under Raw Material and Policy Pressure - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Date: December 29, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In 2025, the overall weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly ranging from 2,900 to 3,900 yuan/ton. The bitumen/crude oil ratio increased, with a main range of 6.0 - 7.8. In 2026, bitumen prices are expected to decline initially and then rebound. It is recommended to go long on the bitumen crack spread after crude oil prices rise to a high level. Regarding the basis, it is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 and weakly volatile in Q4 [4]. - In terms of cost, the overall supply of crude oil exceeds demand. Prices are expected to decline in Q1 and gradually bottom - out and recover in Q2. Bitumen prices mainly follow crude oil price fluctuations. Pay attention to the supply and demand of crude oil, especially the export of heavy oil from Russia and Venezuela [4]. - On the supply side, affected by raw materials and capacity clearance, bitumen production is expected to remain low, and the supply market will become more concentrated [4]. - In terms of demand, the focus of roads will shift to the construction, upgrading, and maintenance of rural roads. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - out recovery and cannot strongly support bitumen demand. However, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policy support is expected to increase bitumen demand, with a cautious and optimistic outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Bitumen Price Trends - In 2025, the weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly between 2,900 - 3,900 yuan/ton, and the bitumen/crude oil ratio was in the range of 6.0 - 7.8. The price fluctuated throughout the year due to factors such as crude oil price changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical situations [4][6]. Bitumen Spot Prices - Since Q2 2025, the market price of bitumen in South China has declined more than in other regions due to new production capacity and price cuts by local refineries [12]. - In 2025, the basis in Shandong was high from March to July, then declined after August. In December, the basis of the bitumen 02 contract was around 0 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. It is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 2026 and weakly volatile in Q4 [20][21]. Bitumen持仓及仓单情况 - From January to October 2025, the net position of the top 20 bitumen traders fluctuated between long and short, and has been in a net short position since November. Warehouse receipts decreased to a low level, while factory warehouse receipts rose to a neutral level since mid - December [24]. Diluted Bitumen - Currently, the port inventory of diluted bitumen is at a low level. Due to the tense situation in Venezuela, the export of diluted bitumen to China may be restricted, resulting in a potential shortage of about 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply. Pay attention to the development of the Venezuelan situation and whether OPEC+ production increases can offset the impact [29]. Bitumen Capacity and Production - In 2024, bitumen production capacity decreased by 220 tons to 7.87 million tons. In 2025, it further decreased to 7.705 million tons. In 2026, backward production capacity in Northeast and Northwest China is expected to be phased out [34]. - Due to changes in fuel oil consumption deduction policies and import tariff rate increases, refineries without crude oil quotas are facing large losses, and market share is shifting to refineries with quotas [34]. Bitumen Production - In November 2025, bitumen production decreased by 13.63% month - on - month to 2.238 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.56%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 26.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76% [42]. Bitumen Apparent Consumption and Shipment Volume - In October 2025, bitumen apparent consumption decreased by 2.92% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.37%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was 26.7259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.44% [47]. - As of the week of December 19, the national bitumen shipment volume decreased by 3.52% month - on - month to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [47]. Bitumen开工率与利润 - As of the week of December 19, the bitumen operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, remaining at a low level in recent years. Currently, the spot profit of bitumen is still in a loss state [52]. Bitumen Capacity Distribution and Maintenance Devices - Shandong has the largest bitumen production capacity, accounting for 31.5%. Other regions such as East China (excluding Shandong), North China, and South China each account for more than 10% [57]. - Many enterprises have shut down or switched production due to losses in bitumen production margins [57]. Bitumen Import and Export - From January to November 2025, the cumulative bitumen import was 3.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative export was 584,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.7%. The net import is at a low level [60]. Bitumen Downstream - Road bitumen accounts for more than 70% of bitumen consumption, but its consumption share is gradually decreasing. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased year - on - year [64]. - Bitumen waterproofing membranes account for 14% of bitumen downstream demand. Due to the continuous decline in real - estate new construction and environmental protection pressure, the consumption volume and share have slightly decreased [70]. - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure has been declining, and traditional infrastructure is difficult to maintain high - speed growth [74]. - The focus of road construction will shift to rural roads, which cannot strongly support bitumen demand. The shortage of funds restricts the start of road bitumen projects [80]. - In November 2025, the new social financing increased by 248.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.97 billion yuan. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 widened for two consecutive months [84]. - From January to October 2025, local government new special bonds totaled 3.9805 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Since August, bond issuance has slowed down, and the proportion flowing into road construction has decreased, restricting bitumen demand [88]. - As of December 19, the operating rates of road - modified bitumen, waterproofing membranes, and shoe - material - modified bitumen in the bitumen downstream were 24.00%, 27.00%, and 22.14% respectively, lower than the six - year average [95]. Bitumen Inventory - In 2025, both bitumen factory and social inventories showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of the week of December 19, the factory inventory was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%. The social inventory was 1.029 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27% [100].

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2995 with a gain of 0.17%, reaching a high of 3010 and a low of 2983, with a cumulative increase of 3.6% over the past week [2][29] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight decline of 0.03%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][29] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong remained stable at 2920 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week and a cumulative increase of 0% over the past week [2][29] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price was 3090 yuan/ton, also unchanged, while the basis in Shandong was -75 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton over the past week [2][29] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -189 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1 yuan/ton over the past week, while the BU main contract rose by 0.17% and Brent remained unchanged [2][29] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to short-term price stabilization but with ongoing uncertainty [2][29] Fundamental Changes - Recent developments regarding Venezuelan oil exports remain a key risk factor, with U.S. military orders for a two-month "quarantine" on Venezuelan oil, following a comprehensive blockade initiated by Trump [3][30] - Venezuela's oil exports are hindered by sanctions, forcing oil to be stored on tankers, with China being the primary destination for approximately 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, indicating a high dependency of Chinese refineries on Venezuelan crude [3][30] Supply and Inventory - The dilution asphalt discount widened, with Malaysia's dilution asphalt discount recorded at -14.46 USD/barrel as of December 24, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][31] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow inventory reduction [4][31] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt prices have slightly increased since early December, fluctuating around 3000, with significant volatility observed [5][32] - Downstream road demand is in a seasonal lull, maintaining a weak price outlook, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on winter storage trends [5][32] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging single-sided trading approach [6][33]

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2996 with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3004 and a low of 2975, accumulating a 1.3% increase over the past week [2][32] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with near low and far high prices [2][32] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative change of 0% [2][34] - In East China, heavy asphalt is priced at 3090 CNY/ton, also unchanged, with a basis of 94 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7-day cumulative decrease of 93 CNY/ton [2][34] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -71 CNY/ton, with a 7-day cumulative increase of 46 CNY/ton [2][34] - The main BU contract rose by 0.27%, while Brent increased by 0.2%, indicating a stable oil price influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela [2][34] Fundamental Changes - Venezuela's oil export issues remain a key risk, with sanctions causing oil to be stored on tankers. Chevron is allowed limited operations, but the majority of oil is supplied by PDVSA to China, which imports about 80% of Venezuela's crude [3][33] - Disruptions in Venezuelan supply could impact China's heavy oil and asphalt supply, potentially tightening regional availability and supporting asphalt prices [3][33] Inventory and Price Trends - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -14.03 USD/barrel as of December 23, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% week-over-week increase, indicating a slow destocking trend [4][34] Strategy - The current strategy suggests a wide-ranging single-sided fluctuation in asphalt prices [6][35]

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract closed at 2977, with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3020 and a low of 2965 during the day, accumulating a 0.7% increase over the past week [2][33] - The next month contract, BU 2603, saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][33] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [2][33] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price decreased by 1.3% to 3090 CNY/ton, with a basis of 113 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton over the week [2][33] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -194 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 14 CNY/ton, while the BU main contract fell by 0.6% and Brent by 0.1% [2][33] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to uncertainty in short-term price stabilization [2][33] Fundamental Changes - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -13.72 USD/barrel as of December 22, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier, indicating a relative expansion [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow de-inventory process [4][34] - The Shandong heavy asphalt market shows signs of stabilization, supported by winter storage prices, while supply risks are rising due to the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers [4][34] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on the winter storage market's performance [4][34] - OPEC+ production increases are likely to impact oil price levels, with asphalt prices expected to follow a downward trend [4][34] - Technically, asphalt prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels [4][34] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging oscillation approach [6][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices rebounded, providing stronger cost - side support. The increase in oil prices drove up downstream energy and chemical products including BU. However, the asphalt market still faces significant upward resistance. The northern market has stronger bottom support due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, while the southern market is under pressure. The contradiction of oversupply in the southern region needs time to be resolved, and the risk of raw material tightening is a potential upward driver. The market has a mix of long and short factors, and a bottom - up rebound requires a clearer signal [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 22, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2995 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 217,171 lots, down 777 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 366,642 lots, up 37,421 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 2,850 - 3,270 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased slightly, while those in other regions remained generally stable. With the escalating geopolitical situation in South America and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers, concerns about raw material tightening have increased, and the discount of diluted asphalt has rebounded [1] - The northern market has a warmer atmosphere due to the continuous release of winter storage demand, but the southern spot market is under pressure as major refineries have released more low - priced resources recently, increasing competitive pressure and suppressing the futures market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side dip - buying [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly output (total, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]