大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2510（主力） | 3503 | 3506 | - 3 | -0.09% | | BU2511 | 3460 | 3466 | - 6 | -0.17% | | BU2512 | 3406 | 3406 | 0 | 0.00% | | SC2509 | 489.5 | 495.2 | -5.7 | -1.15% | | Brent首行 | 65.91 | 66.99 | -1.1 | -1.61% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 22.5 | 22.3 | 0.2 | 0.84% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 2.42% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 73750 | 73750 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On June 10, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,758 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.05%. The northern market's rigid demand was stable, and the rising crude oil prices and limited resource circulation in North China supported the prices. In the south, rainfall hindered the rigid demand. The overall supply and demand of asphalt were weak, with a slight increase in factory and social inventories, which were still at a low level year-on-year. In the short term, due to strong costs and the expectation of tight supply in the peak season, the unilateral price of asphalt was expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main BU contract operating in the range of 3,450 - 3,650 yuan/ton [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On June 10, the price of BU2509 (the main contract) was 3,483 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.14%. The main contract's open interest increased by 11,000 lots to 216,000 lots, a rise of 5.54%, while the trading volume decreased by 43,000 lots to 221,000 lots, a decline of 16.28%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 91,510 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU07 - 08 spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 80.56%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.11% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end price of asphalt in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%. The low - end price of gasoline in Shandong decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 7,548 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.01% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 22.66 yuan/ton to - 56.88 yuan/ton, a decline of 66.22%. The BU - SC crack spread decreased by 25.11 yuan/ton to - 405.19 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.61% [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: The northern market's rigid demand was stable, and the rising crude oil prices and limited resource circulation in North China supported the prices, driving up the prices in Shandong. In the south, rainfall hindered the rigid demand. In South China, some refineries planned to cut prices to relieve inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of asphalt in East China were weak. In the short term, due to strong costs and the expectation of tight supply in the peak season, the unilateral price of asphalt was expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main BU contract operating in the range of 3,450 - 3,650 yuan/ton [7]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including the closing price and open interest of the main BU contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in Shandong refineries, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][16].

Group 1 - Wildfires in northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are threatening oil sands operations, leading to project shutdowns and evacuations [2] - Canadian Natural Resources Limited has evacuated workers from the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, halting production of 36,500 barrels of asphalt per day [2] - MEG Energy has also evacuated non-essential personnel from the Christina Lake project due to wildfires disrupting third-party power lines, delaying an additional 70,000 barrels of production per day [2] Group 2 - Oil sands account for 97% of Canada's total oil reserves, primarily located in Alberta and Saskatchewan [4] - Oil sands are a mixture of sand, water, clay, and asphalt, with asphalt content ranging from 6% to 12% [4] - Approximately 20% of oil sands deposits are shallow enough for open-pit mining, while the remaining 80% require drilling and in-situ extraction methods [4] Group 3 - Extracted oil sands undergo initial processing to separate asphalt from sand and water, which can then be diluted for pipeline transport or upgraded into heavy crude oil [6] - Canada has the largest asphalt resource globally, with total asphalt content of 400 billion cubic meters, and Alberta's oil sands contain 180 billion barrels of crude oil [6] - By 2030, Canadian oil sands production is projected to reach 3.8 million barrels per day, a 15% increase from current levels, although growth may slow in the early 2030s due to various factors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The import volume of diluted asphalt in China reached a new low in April 2025, primarily due to trade tensions and reduced profitability in processing diluted asphalt, indicating that "low imports" may become the norm for the remainder of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Import Data - In April 2025, China's diluted asphalt import volume was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 97.58% month-on-month and 97.65% year-on-year, marking the lowest monthly import level since February 2019 [1]. - The total import volume from January to April 2025 was 1.29 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 37.18%, also the lowest for the same period since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - U.S. sanctions have significantly contributed to the record low import levels of diluted asphalt, with President Trump announcing the termination of oil trading agreements with Venezuela on February 26, 2025, and requiring Chevron to exit Venezuelan oil operations by April 3, 2025 [3]. - The sanctions have led to a reduction in U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil and have limited the import enthusiasm of other countries [3]. - Contrary to market expectations, the anticipated increase in China's diluted asphalt imports following the sanctions has not materialized, as evidenced by the low import figures in April [3]. Group 3: Processing Profitability - The current tax policy on processing diluted asphalt, which allows deductions based only on the proportion of taxable products, has significantly reduced the profitability of processing diluted asphalt, leading to a decline in domestic refineries' willingness to process it [5]. - The production of asphalt using crude oil quotas is becoming the primary method in 2025, as the profitability of processing diluted asphalt has not improved compared to processing crude oil [5]. - To achieve profitability in processing diluted asphalt, the price spread would need to decrease by approximately $10 per barrel, which is unlikely to happen without affecting the high cracking margins of diluted asphalt [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the combined internal and external factors, it is expected that the import volume of diluted asphalt will remain low and may become a norm for the remainder of 2025 [6].