Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Supply side: High asphalt losses, raw material shortages, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected to keep the asphalt operating rate low in Q4. With the widening discount of diluted asphalt, attention should be paid to the potential increase in Venezuelan heavy oil flowing to China. Import growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be very limited. [4][78] - Demand side: Asphalt demand is mainly concentrated in road infrastructure and real estate, with road infrastructure accounting for 70%. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", many road construction projects are in the delivery phase, which will drive asphalt demand. However, due to financial constraints on local governments and the lack of improvement in the real estate market, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly in Q4 and will still lag behind previous years. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the capital side and the pace of forming asphalt physical volume. Low asphalt inventory strongly supports asphalt futures prices. [4][78] - Overall trend: With weak supply and demand, asphalt is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations in Q4, with its overall center of gravity moving down. The high asphalt basis suggests that northern spot traders can short the basis. Also, the 01 - 06 spread of asphalt is expected to weaken seasonally, so it is recommended to short the 01 - 06 spread. [4][78] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price走势 - The asphalt/crude oil ratio increased in the first three quarters of 2025. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Venezuela, the ratio is expected to remain high in Q4. [9] - After the implementation of the diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy, refineries suffered heavy losses in processing diluted asphalt, leading to a significant reduction in imports and low port inventories. [11] - In the South China region, the increase in refinery operating rates has given asphalt spot prices a significant advantage. [20] - Since 2025, the asphalt basis first declined and then rebounded to a relatively high level. Recently, it has dropped to a slightly high - neutral position. [29] 2. Asphalt Production and Consumption - In August 2025, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.74%, and the Shandong region's operating rate decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 33.74%, both at relatively low levels. [34] - In August 2025, asphalt production increased by 0.75% month - on - month to 2.5267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production increased by 9.28% year - on - year to 18.8156 million tons. [39] - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 2.833 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 21.21%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption increased by 4.98% year - on - year to 18.0629 million tons. As of September 26, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 0.32% week - on - week to 312,600 tons. [44] - As of September 26, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating rate was mostly low, and the profit of Shandong asphalt spot was significantly in the red, with a loss of over 600 yuan/ton. [47] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative net import of asphalt was 1.9591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. In August, the net import reached the lowest level in recent years. [49] 3. Asphalt Downstream - Asphalt downstream demand is mainly in road construction and maintenance (about 70%), building waterproofing (about 20%), and ship fuel and coking (about 10%). [52] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 3.3%, continuing to decline. The cumulative sales volume of pavers was 1,120 units, a year - on - year increase of 36.58%. [57] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset infrastructure investment was 5.42%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity dropped from 3.2% in January - July 2025 to 2.0% in January - August 2025. [59] - From January to July 2025, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. The issuance progress of new local bonds is higher than that in 2024 but lower than that in 2023. It is expected that the special bonds will increase significantly from September to October. [62] - In Q3, the downstream main - road modified asphalt strengthened seasonally but not as much as in previous years. As of September 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries increased, but they were still at relatively low levels compared to previous years. [66] 4. Asphalt Inventory - As of September 26, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.7%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. [71] - As of September 26, the asphalt social inventory decreased by 3.50% week - on - week to 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The factory inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week to 698,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.74%. The overall inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to previous years. [76]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 17, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,787 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.05% increase. The rise in crude oil and futures boosted market sentiment. In Shandong and North China, some projects rushed to meet deadlines, leading to smooth refinery shipments and some traders raising prices, driving up the average market price. In East China, supply was abundant with low - price shipping resources, and in South China, demand was general but prices were stable due to cost support [5]. - The weekly production remained high and demand increased month - on - month. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain was stably driven. Refinery inventories were low and stable, while social inventories intended to actively reduce before the end of the year. Asphalt supply was still relatively loose, and with good refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation was relatively high. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and the cost of asphalt lacked clear drivers. The single - side was expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread would be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract was expected to be between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 17, the BU2511 (main contract) was 3,445 yuan, up 34 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day; BU2512 was 3,404 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%; BU2601 was 3,386 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.89%. SC2510 was 499.3 yuan, up 5.7 yuan or 1.15%, and Brent first - line was 67.89 US dollars, up 0.8 US dollars or 1.12%. The main contract position was 234,000 lots, down 0.1 lots or - 0.42%, and the main contract trading volume was 141,000 lots, down 21,000 lots or - 13.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 65,360 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: BU12 - 01 was 18.00 yuan, unchanged; BU11 - 12 was 41.00 yuan, up 4.00 yuan or 10.81%. The Shandong - main contract basis was 246.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 10.87%; the East China - main contract basis was 116.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 20.55%; the South China - main contract basis was 86.00 yuan, down 30.00 yuan or - 25.86% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; East China market price was 3,520 yuan, unchanged; South China market price was 3,490 yuan, unchanged. Shandong gasoline was 7,520 yuan, up 10.00 yuan or 0.13%; Shandong diesel was 6,485 yuan, up 24.00 yuan or 0.37%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2,920 yuan, unchanged. The diluted asphalt discount was - 6.5, unchanged, and the exchange rate mid - price was 7.1013, down 0.00 or - 0.02% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: Asphalt refinery profit was - 59.08 yuan, down 27.60 yuan or - 87.71%; refined oil comprehensive profit was 339.88 yuan, down 21.20 yuan or - 5.87%; BU - SC cracking was - 632.50 yuan, down 15.06 yuan or - 2.44%; gasoline spot - Brent was 928.06 yuan, down 30.39 yuan or - 3.17%; diesel spot - Brent was 702.13 yuan, down 18.00 yuan or - 2.50% [2]. 2. Market Judgement - **Market Overview**: The domestic asphalt market average price increased slightly. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price rose 5 yuan to 3,640 - 3,750 yuan/ton. In the Yangtze River Delta, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,650 - 3,700 yuan/ton. In South China, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,480 - 3,530 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of asphalt were both strong, but the supply was relatively loose. In the short term, oil prices would fluctuate widely, and asphalt was expected to fluctuate on the single - side. The cracking spread would be bearish in the medium term, and the BU2511 contract was expected to operate between 3,350 and 3,500 [7]. 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provided several figures including the closing price and position of the BU main contract, and the market prices of asphalt, gasoline, and diesel in East China and Shandong [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - **Cost**: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - **Production Scheduling Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly production of asphalt remains at a high level, and demand has strengthened on a week - on - week basis. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain is stably driven. Currently, refinery inventories have stabilized at a low level, while social inventories intend to actively reduce inventory before the end of the year. Asphalt supply is still relatively abundant, and combined with decent refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation is relatively high. - In the short term, oil prices will mainly show a wide - range fluctuating trend. The cost side of asphalt lacks a clear driving force. Unilateral prices are expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread will be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 15, 2025, the prices of BU2511 (the main contract), BU2512, and BU2601 increased by 0.74%, 0.72%, and 0.81% respectively compared to September 12. The prices of SC2510 and Brent first - line contracts rose by 2.69% and 2.28% respectively. The main contract's position decreased by 4.74% to 241,000 lots, and trading volume dropped by 14.44% to 204,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.32% to 67,360 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The BU12 - 01 spread decreased by 16.67% to 15, the BU11 - 12 spread increased by 2.70% to 38. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 10.33%, 12.70%, and 20.12% respectively [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price decreased by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton, the South China market price dropped by 0.29% to 3490 yuan/ton, and the East China market price remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased by 0.37%, 0.05%, and remained unchanged respectively. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 6.1, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.05% to 7.1056 [2]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 254.83% to - 48.45 yuan/ton, the refined oil comprehensive profit dropped by 18.88% to 360.77 yuan/ton. The BU - SC cracking spread decreased by 13.83% to - 594.10 yuan/ton, the gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased by 9.93% to 961.63 yuan/ton, and the diesel spot - Brent spread decreased by 10.58% to 709.15 yuan/ton [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On September 15, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous day. In North China, the main refineries delivered previous contracts smoothly, and the 70 asphalt was sold in limited quantities, driving up the market average price. In Shandong, some refineries resumed asphalt production, with sufficient supply and good sales. In East China, demand was stable, and there were a small number of low - price shipping resources. In South China, demand was tepid, and low - price social inventory resources were mainly traded [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shandong market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3640 - 3800 yuan/ton. The East China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. The South China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In the future, the South China market's demand will be slowly released, and some refineries' low - production of asphalt will support local prices to remain stable [5][6].

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 沥青日报 | 第一部分 | | 相关数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2025/09/02 | 2025/09/01 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2510 （主力） | 3551 | 3540 | 11 | 0.31% | | BU2511 | 3543 | 3522 | 21 | 0.60% | | BU2512 | 3492 | 3466 | 26 | 0.75% | | SC2509 | 490.4 | 483.5 | 6.9 | 1.43% | | Brent首行 | 68.47 | 67.26 | 1.2 | 1.80% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 10.6 | 11.0 | -0.4 | -3.42% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 15.3 | 16.5 | -1.2 | -7.36% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 70300 | 71300 | -1000 | -1.40% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | B ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong, Futures Practitioner Certificate No.: F03108405, Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No.: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Relevant Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price on August 13, 2025, was 3503, down 3 (-0.09%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price was 3460, down 6 (-0.17%) [2] - BU2512: Price remained unchanged at 3406 [2] - SC2509: Price was 489.5, down 5.7 (-1.15%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price was 65.91, down 1.1 (-1.61%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 22.5 million lots, up 0.2 million lots (0.84%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 12.3 million lots, up 0.3 million lots (2.42%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 73,750 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: Spread was 54.00, down 6.00 (-10.00%) [2] - BU10 - 11: Spread was 43.00, up 3.00 (7.50%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: Data unavailable [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3520, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3650, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Price: Data unavailable [2] - Shandong Gasoline: Price was 7732, down 6.00 (-0.08%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: Price was 6562, up 1.00 (0.02%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: Price was 2960, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Middle Price: 7.1350, down 0.01 (-0.10%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: 4.36, up 52.61 (109.04%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 525.78, up 54.41 (11.54%) [2] - BU - SC Cracking Spread: -511.40, up 36.30 (6.63%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 1204.47, up 55.90 (4.87%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 859.07, up 62.09 (7.79%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - On August 13, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3820 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.10%) from the previous day [5] - In the North China market, demand is slowly recovering, and major refineries are limiting shipments, supporting price increases [5] - In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are mostly at low - end prices [5] - In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders are cutting prices to stimulate sales [5] - In the South market, demand is tepid, but major refineries mainly ship by sea, and inventories are at medium - low levels, so prices are stable [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton. Falling crude oil prices are negative for market sentiment, but asphalt prices are already relatively low, and traders' previous procurement costs are high [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Low refinery operating rates and inventory levels support prices, but rain has affected terminal demand [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3530 - 3530 yuan/ton. Demand is weak, and many downstream users are pessimistic. New typhoons and high social inventories may keep prices weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - The short - term spot market is weak. Short - term precipitation affects demand release, and demand in the North will start slowly before September. The supply - demand pattern will be weak in August, and the de - stocking speed in the industrial chain will slow down [7] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and are bearish in the medium term. Asphalt prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, being more resilient than crude oil. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3450 and 3550 [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as BU main contract closing prices, positions, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refined oil prices, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On June 10, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3,758 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.05%. The northern market's rigid demand was stable, and the rising crude oil prices and limited resource circulation in North China supported the prices. In the south, rainfall hindered the rigid demand. The overall supply and demand of asphalt were weak, with a slight increase in factory and social inventories, which were still at a low level year-on-year. In the short term, due to strong costs and the expectation of tight supply in the peak season, the unilateral price of asphalt was expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main BU contract operating in the range of 3,450 - 3,650 yuan/ton [2][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On June 10, the price of BU2509 (the main contract) was 3,483 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decline of 0.14%. The main contract's open interest increased by 11,000 lots to 216,000 lots, a rise of 5.54%, while the trading volume decreased by 43,000 lots to 221,000 lots, a decline of 16.28%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 91,510 tons [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU07 - 08 spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 80.56%. The Shandong - main contract basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.11% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The low - end price of asphalt in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.86%. The low - end price of gasoline in Shandong decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 7,548 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.01% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 22.66 yuan/ton to - 56.88 yuan/ton, a decline of 66.22%. The BU - SC crack spread decreased by 25.11 yuan/ton to - 405.19 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.61% [2]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Market Overview**: The northern market's rigid demand was stable, and the rising crude oil prices and limited resource circulation in North China supported the prices, driving up the prices in Shandong. In the south, rainfall hindered the rigid demand. In South China, some refineries planned to cut prices to relieve inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply and demand of asphalt in East China were weak. In the short term, due to strong costs and the expectation of tight supply in the peak season, the unilateral price of asphalt was expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main BU contract operating in the range of 3,450 - 3,650 yuan/ton [7]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including the closing price and open interest of the main BU contract, the market prices of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in Shandong refineries, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][16].

Group 1 - Wildfires in northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are threatening oil sands operations, leading to project shutdowns and evacuations [2] - Canadian Natural Resources Limited has evacuated workers from the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, halting production of 36,500 barrels of asphalt per day [2] - MEG Energy has also evacuated non-essential personnel from the Christina Lake project due to wildfires disrupting third-party power lines, delaying an additional 70,000 barrels of production per day [2] Group 2 - Oil sands account for 97% of Canada's total oil reserves, primarily located in Alberta and Saskatchewan [4] - Oil sands are a mixture of sand, water, clay, and asphalt, with asphalt content ranging from 6% to 12% [4] - Approximately 20% of oil sands deposits are shallow enough for open-pit mining, while the remaining 80% require drilling and in-situ extraction methods [4] Group 3 - Extracted oil sands undergo initial processing to separate asphalt from sand and water, which can then be diluted for pipeline transport or upgraded into heavy crude oil [6] - Canada has the largest asphalt resource globally, with total asphalt content of 400 billion cubic meters, and Alberta's oil sands contain 180 billion barrels of crude oil [6] - By 2030, Canadian oil sands production is projected to reach 3.8 million barrels per day, a 15% increase from current levels, although growth may slow in the early 2030s due to various factors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The import volume of diluted asphalt in China reached a new low in April 2025, primarily due to trade tensions and reduced profitability in processing diluted asphalt, indicating that "low imports" may become the norm for the remainder of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Import Data - In April 2025, China's diluted asphalt import volume was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 97.58% month-on-month and 97.65% year-on-year, marking the lowest monthly import level since February 2019 [1]. - The total import volume from January to April 2025 was 1.29 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 37.18%, also the lowest for the same period since 2021 [1]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Sanctions - U.S. sanctions have significantly contributed to the record low import levels of diluted asphalt, with President Trump announcing the termination of oil trading agreements with Venezuela on February 26, 2025, and requiring Chevron to exit Venezuelan oil operations by April 3, 2025 [3]. - The sanctions have led to a reduction in U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil and have limited the import enthusiasm of other countries [3]. - Contrary to market expectations, the anticipated increase in China's diluted asphalt imports following the sanctions has not materialized, as evidenced by the low import figures in April [3]. Group 3: Processing Profitability - The current tax policy on processing diluted asphalt, which allows deductions based only on the proportion of taxable products, has significantly reduced the profitability of processing diluted asphalt, leading to a decline in domestic refineries' willingness to process it [5]. - The production of asphalt using crude oil quotas is becoming the primary method in 2025, as the profitability of processing diluted asphalt has not improved compared to processing crude oil [5]. - To achieve profitability in processing diluted asphalt, the price spread would need to decrease by approximately $10 per barrel, which is unlikely to happen without affecting the high cracking margins of diluted asphalt [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the combined internal and external factors, it is expected that the import volume of diluted asphalt will remain low and may become a norm for the remainder of 2025 [6].