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中美缓和提振情绪,纯苯苯乙烯延续弱势震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 09:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - sentiment improvement due to Sino - US easing may briefly boost market confidence, the weak oil prices and insufficient demand still suppress the market [2] - The styrene market is oscillating weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is cautious, and the cost support is weak. However, the macro - improvement from Sino - US talks may support the short - term market, but the supply - demand pattern remains to be improved [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Aspects - **Prices**: On October 24, the styrene main contract closed down 0.09% at 6,539 yuan/ton with a basis of 6 (±34 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.57% at 5,572 yuan/ton [2] - **Costs**: On October 24, Brent crude oil closed at $61.8/barrel (+$3.3/barrel), WTI crude oil at $66.0/barrel (+$3.4/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,545 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 20.3 tons (+0.6 tons), a 3.1% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 9.9 tons (+0.9 tons), a 10% increase [2] - **Supply**: The styrene production and capacity utilization decreased slightly. The weekly styrene output was 32.7 tons (-1.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization was 69.3% (-2.6%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The EPS capacity utilization was 62.0% (-0.5%), ABS 72.8% (-0.3%), and PS 53.8% (+0%) [2] Views - **Pure Benzene**: The crude oil market supply - demand is loose, OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the global oil consumption enters the off - season. The supply of pure benzene is high, the downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory situation is complex. The Sino - US easing may boost market confidence [2] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is weakly oscillating. The supply is abundant, the demand is cautious, and the cost support is weak. The Sino - US talks may improve the macro - situation and support the short - term market [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices - Styrene futures main contract price decreased by 0.09% from 6,545 yuan/ton on October 23 to 6,539 yuan/ton on October 24; the spot price increased by 0.29% from 6,830 yuan/ton to 6,850 yuan/ton [5] - Pure benzene futures main contract price decreased by 0.57% from 5,604 yuan/ton to 5,572 yuan/ton; the East China spot price decreased by 0.27% from 5,560 yuan/ton to 5,545 yuan/ton [5] Production and Inventory - China's styrene production decreased by 3.66% from 33.9 tons on October 17 to 32.7 tons on October 24; pure benzene production decreased by 2.72% from 43.8 tons to 42.6 tons [6] - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.05% from 19.7 tons to 20.3 tons; factory inventory increased by 1.47% from 19.3 tons to 19.6 tons [6] - Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 10% from 9.0 tons to 9.9 tons [6] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.63% from 71.9% to 69.3%; that of caprolactam decreased by 3.52% from 92.4% to 88.9% [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the EPS capacity utilization decreased by 0.54% from 62.5% to 62.0%, ABS by 0.30% from 73.1% to 72.8%, and PS remained unchanged at 53.8% [7] 3. Industry News - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China is cancelled; China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans; Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls by one year and re - examine the plan [8] - US inflation data in September were all lower than expected, enhancing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8] - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting at dawn on October 30 [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, aniline weekly capacity utilization, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization, and phenol weekly capacity utilization [9][13][16]