Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Trump administration in controlling rising oil prices and explores potential measures that could be taken to mitigate these pressures, including the likelihood of a return to TACO (Trump Administration's Compromise Option) as a high-probability option [3][6][69]. Group 1: Current Measures to Control Oil Prices - The U.S. government has implemented measures such as releasing strategic oil reserves and easing sanctions, but these have had limited effectiveness. Geopolitical risk has contributed 65% to the recent oil price increase, with a significant portion attributed to supply-demand factors [4][20][66]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries have released 400 million barrels of oil, averaging an increase of 3.33 million barrels per day, but these measures are insufficient to fully suppress risk premiums [14][66]. - Global oil prices have shown increased differentiation, with Asia experiencing the most strain, Europe in the middle, and America having relative buffer [4][67]. Group 2: Future Measures the U.S. Government Might Consider - Potential future measures include export controls, futures market interventions, and tax reductions. However, implementing export controls may not lower domestic gasoline prices and could instead increase international oil price pressures [5][25][68]. - If the U.S. Treasury engages in direct trading of oil futures, it could create short-term price impacts, but the financial constraints and political costs are significant. A substantial short position would require a large nominal scale of 100,000 to 150,000 contracts [31][32][68]. - Direct interventions on the consumer side, such as tax reductions and regulatory relaxations, may also be considered to alleviate domestic gasoline prices [38][68]. Group 3: Likelihood of TACO Re-emergence - The article suggests that the likelihood of TACO re-emergence is high due to limited downward movement in oil risk premiums, facing multiple resistances such as negotiation complexities and supply recovery delays [6][44][69]. - The TACO probability index, which has historically predicted key compromises by the Trump administration, currently stands at 95%, indicating a high chance of further concessions [55][69]. - Future oil prices are expected to remain above pre-conflict levels but below peak levels, with Brent crude prices projected to hover around $85 in the fourth quarter [49][69].