Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly defined in a comparable star system [1] Core Views - The supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. The market for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil has different supply - side situations, and the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil and the supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil need attention. The asphalt market is under long - term negative pressure, while the LPG market is expected to be bullish due to supply - demand tightening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC01 contract rising 0.48% during the day. WTI is sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations above the marginal production cost of US shale oil at $50 per barrel. As the US sanctions on Russian oil take effect on November 21, major Indian buyers have suspended purchasing Russian crude oil for December delivery. However, the supply - side contraction has not led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and last week's US API inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels unexpectedly, limiting the oil price rebound space [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The logic of high - sulfur being weaker than low - sulfur continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong recently due to supply - side fluctuations. Overseas refinery operations are unstable, the Kuwait Azur refinery has no clear restart news, and Kuwait's fuel oil shipments have been low since November. The continuous strength of diesel cracking suppresses the overseas supply of low - sulfur fuel oil. China's application for a low - sulfur export quota conversion to refined oil at the end of the year is 490,000 tons, and CNOOC's production declined in October. The end - of - year export pressure has eased marginally, and the fourth - quarter shipping fuel peak season and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations boost the fundamentals. However, the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFOC unit at the end of December may increase the low - sulfur loading volume, and medium - term supply pressure still exists. For high - sulfur fuel oil, Russia's shipments to Asia increased by 0.9% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons in November, but the actual export after November 21 is uncertain. With the steady production increase in the Middle East and the end of the power generation peak season, local exports are expected to increase continuously, and the current feedstock demand may decline after the new quota is issued, making the medium - term supply pattern more relaxed [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - $11 per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken. The weekly shipment volume has been decreasing month - on - month since November and is at a low level in the same period in the past four years. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory has continued to slow down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. The expectation of rush - construction demand in the final year of the 14th Five - Year Plan has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule. The negative signal that the end - of - year demand is lower than that of last year has emerged, and the market bearish sentiment has increased. The long - term fundamentals are bearish for BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international LPG in December is expected to increase. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant temperature drop in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The supply - demand tightening has boosted the LPG to be bullish [3]