本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN T7C3Y1KIJH90 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 全球石油2026年展望 油价可能跌破50美元，也可能突破100美元 特朗普的第二任期是重塑全球原油市场的主导因素，其政策旨在压低价格和通胀，让美国消 费者从中受益（或在2 0 2 6年中期选举之前推高特朗普的支持率)。在严重衰退情景下，布伦 特油价跌至5 0美元（与彭博新能源财经5 4 . 5 0美元的预测一致）， 全球能源公司的股票回购 规模将缩减高达5 5 0亿美元 ，资本支出和转型支出也会下降，尽管派息不会受到影响。 美国 油田服务公司和加拿大油砂公司的派息不会受到影响，但回购规模将会缩减。沙特阿美仍将 派发8 4 0亿美元基本股息，但会取消与业绩挂钩的分红。 油价下跌也会导致产油国财政吃 紧，进而导致沙特的基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have led to fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices, which reached a peak of $78.4 per barrel. Morgan Stanley outlines three scenarios that could influence future oil price movements [1]. Scenario Analysis - Scenario One: If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow and exports remain unaffected, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $60 per barrel range [4]. - Scenario Two: A significant reduction in Iranian exports could eliminate global supply surplus, leading oil prices to stabilize between $75 and $80 per barrel [4]. - Scenario Three: If the conflict poses risks to broader Gulf region oil exports, high oil prices similar to those seen in 2022 could re-emerge [5]. Historical Context - In 2022, international oil prices peaked at around $140 per barrel due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by a decline influenced by OPEC production cuts and U.S. strategic oil reserve releases, with prices dropping to a low of $70 by year-end [1]. Inflation Transmission Effects - The impact of oil price fluctuations on global inflation varies by region. In the U.S., a permanent 10% increase in oil prices only raises core inflation by a few basis points, while in the Eurozone, the same increase could raise core inflation by approximately 0.25 percentage points [3][7]. - The U.S. is positioned as the largest oil producer, which mitigates the inflationary impact of rising oil prices on its economy, although higher prices may still pressure consumer spending and growth [7]. Recent Price Movements - Despite recent increases, the rise in Brent crude oil prices from around $60 per barrel in early May to nearly $80 per barrel is relatively moderate compared to earlier peaks in January [5].