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纯苯、苯乙烯日报:油价疲弱拖累,纯苯苯乙烯延续弱势格局-20251021
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 07:05
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene and styrene markets continue to be in a weak pattern due to the weak oil prices. The short - term price of pure benzene may maintain a weak and volatile trend, and styrene may continue the weak and volatile pattern [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On October 20, the main contract of styrene closed down 1.82% at 6365 yuan/ton, with a basis of 65 (+53 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.89% at 5461 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5465 yuan/ton (-120/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On October 20, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 57.2 dollars/barrel (+0.2 dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 61.3 dollars/barrel (+0.2 dollars/barrel) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 19.7 tons (-0.5 tons), a 2.7% decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 9.0 tons (-0.1 tons), a 1.1% decrease [2] - **Supply**: The styrene production and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The weekly output of styrene was 33.9 tons (-0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 71.9% (-1.7%) [2] - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 62.5% (+21.8%), ABS was 73.1% (+0.6%), and PS was 53.8% (-0.8%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand of the crude oil market remains loose. OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November. The global oil consumption enters the seasonal off - peak. The supply of pure benzene remains high, while the demand is insufficient due to the maintenance of downstream industries. The short - term price may be weak and volatile [2] - **Styrene**: The styrene market maintains a weak and volatile trend. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is affected by insufficient terminal orders and falling raw material prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price may continue the weak pattern [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot decreased to varying degrees from October 17 to 20. The basis of styrene increased by 441.67%. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased slightly, while the price of naphtha decreased by 0.34% [5] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From October 10 to 17, the production of styrene in China decreased by 2.35% to 33.9 tons, and the production of pure benzene decreased by 4.82% to 43.8 tons. The inventories of styrene and pure benzene in ports and factories also decreased [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rates of some pure benzene downstream industries decreased, such as styrene (-1.73%), caprolactam (-3.59%), etc. Among styrene downstream industries, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 21.78%, ABS increased by 0.50%, and PS decreased by 0.80% [7] 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. The oil production in Iraq's Kurdistan region may further recover in October. US refineries enter autumn maintenance, and the EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels last week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas eases the tension in the Middle East, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to decline [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc., with data sources including iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][13][16]