南华期货油料产业周报 ——近月通关延迟偏强，远月到港压力偏弱 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前豆粕盘面交易重点在于：对于进口大豆，近月现实压力可能会持续压制盘面，但近期传出港口大豆 通关延迟消息，使得油料整体开启反弹。对于进口大豆，买船成本方面看，巴西升贴水在外盘走弱后保持坚 挺，总体支撑国内买船成本。量级方面看，美豆目前只能通过储备买船进口，商业买船继续以采购巴西船期 为主，但由于榨利表现一般，整体买船情绪较前期有所降低，故目前12月预估到港750万吨，1月600万吨，2 月500万吨左右。仅从到港量来看，在明年一季度同比往年或存在一定供应缺口，但目前国内开启采购美豆窗 口后，国家或将以轮储形式对远月供应添加增量。所以总的来看，近期弱现实依旧是压制盘面反弹高度的主 要因素，但阶段性供应缺口或延迟到港问题将影响国内进口大豆整体供应节奏，使得盘面出现阶段性反弹。 对于国内豆粕，供应方面，全国进口大豆港口与油厂库存维持高位，豆粕延续季节性库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The trading focus of the domestic soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans will continue to decline and whether China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans will be fulfilled. If the US soybean inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will oscillate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal futures will lack a clear trend in the short term and follow the US market. In the medium term, the shipment schedule of China's US soybean purchases will determine the domestic supply situation [1]. - Rapeseed meal will maintain a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter. With the depletion of rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories, the market is weak due to the expected supply recovery after Australian rapeseed arrives in November. As it is the off - season for aquaculture, demand growth is limited, and inventories are expected to rise. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - In the short term, the near - month soybean meal market is affected by high inventory levels at ports and oil mills, a slight increase in oil mill crushing volume, and limited downstream purchasing sentiment. The approaching expiration of warehouse receipts is also influencing the market. In the long term, the cost of distant - month soybeans is firm, import profits have slightly recovered, but the supply of distant - month purchases is limited. The easing of Sino - US trade relations is expected to fill the supply gap, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to weaken. The downstream demand for rapeseed meal is expected to decline slightly in the fourth quarter, and the potential for a bumper harvest in South America will put pressure on the domestic rapeseed meal market [5][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus of the outer - market US soybeans is on the supply - side yield and the demand - side China's purchase. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear trend in the short term and is affected by China's purchase schedule in the medium term [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation in the fourth quarter. The market is weak due to expected supply recovery and limited demand growth. The timing of going long depends on warehouse receipts [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through this range [16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Consider covered call strategies using options, hold previously sold call options on rapeseed meal 2601, and go short at the upper end of the range for those without positions [16]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: Use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk, expect the M1 - 5 spread to stop falling around 170, and contract the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels (650, 700) [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, and rapeseed meal between 2250 - 2750 [19]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits; feed mills with low inventories can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: Provide closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [20]. - **Spreads and Basis**: Include spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as basis data for spot prices [21]. - **Import Costs and Crushing Profits**: Present import costs and crushing profits of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins [22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: The US Secretary of Agriculture expects to announce a farmer assistance program and a China - US soybean purchase agreement in two weeks. The USDA export inspection report shows the export inspection volume of US soybeans, and private US exporters have reported multiple sales of soybeans to China [24][25]. - **Negative News**: The soybean sowing progress in Argentina is delayed, and Brazil's soybean exports in November have increased [26]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream buyers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [26]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Monitor domestic weekly inventory data, Brazilian Secex weekly reports, USDA crop growth reports, export inspection reports, export sales reports, and CFTC agricultural product position reports [32]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trends**: The domestic soybean meal futures followed the outer - market trend, falling first and then rising. Rapeseed meal rose first and then fell due to news of Australian rapeseed imports [31]. - **Capital Movements**: The main profitable positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal are hedging or institutional short positions. Foreign capital has closed long positions, and institutional positions have reduced short positions and increased long positions. The put - call ratio of soybean meal options indicates a bearish sentiment in the market [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The spread between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a seasonal pattern. This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal weakened, and the same is true for rapeseed meal [36]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal remained stable, while the basis of rapeseed meal declined. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed. The far - month basis is inversely related to the crushing profit, and the basis is expected to decline [41]. - **Foreign Market** - **Foreign Trends**: This week, the outer - market US soybeans rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and potential soybean purchases, but the increase was limited by EUDR and the US soybean oil government restructuring [52]. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - only funds [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The crushing profit in the US soybean production area has increased due to the decline in soybean prices and the rise in soybean oil and soybean meal prices. The profit in the Brazilian production area has also increased, while the profit in the Argentine production area has weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has remained stable due to the rise in rapeseed prices [64]. 4.2 Import - Export Crushing Profit Tracking - Despite the recent rebound in US soybeans, crushing profits have not improved effectively. The rebound in US soybean prices has offset the decline in the premium of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, and it is difficult to obtain profitable commercial purchases. The acceleration of non - commercial purchases of distant - month US soybeans may lead to supply pressure, and the pricing method based on cost or profit may be temporarily invalid [68]. - Although rapeseed imports show a crushing profit, the purchase of rapeseed is expected to remain cautious due to import margin requirements [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: The estimated US soybean production in November is 4.3 billion bushels, a decrease of 48 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly due to a decline in yield. Exports are expected to decrease by 50 million bushels, while crushing volume remains unchanged. The ending inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the average farm price is expected to increase by $0.50 per bushel to $10.50 [72][73]. - **Global**: In 2025/26, the global soybean supply - demand forecast shows a decline in beginning stocks and production, a decrease in crushing volume, a slight increase in exports, and a decline in ending stocks. The decrease in ending stocks in Argentina, Brazil, the US, the EU, Ukraine, and India is partially offset by the increase in China's inventory [75][76]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - The import volume of soybeans is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the fourth quarter, mainly due to the loss of crushing profits and the difficulty of fully purchasing US soybeans through commercial channels. Rapeseed imports will remain at a low level [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to remain high due to the carry - over inventory from the third quarter and the fourth - quarter imports. However, the consumption of soybean meal is expected to have limited growth after the previous high - level stocking [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - Domestic soybean inventories are at a seasonal high but are expected to decline in the fourth quarter and stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The inventory of soybean meal is also expected to decline with the reduction of raw material inventory and crushing volume and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].