Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the domestic soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with the outer market likely to maintain a narrow range bottom oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The domestic soybean futures' upside is limited by high near - month inventories, and prices may decline further due to the influence of China - US negotiations [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to follow the downward trend of soybean meal in the short - term. With limited future arrivals of rapeseed raw materials, inventories will decline seasonally. The continuous China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and there may be relaxation in the tense situation of the previously imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Outer market US soybeans are centered around export demand under China - US negotiations, maintaining a narrow bottom oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's shutdown means attention should be paid to the October USDA report for potential adjustments to previous yields. Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, with no major yield issues for the new crop. The domestic soybean series' upside is restricted by high near - month inventories and influenced by China - US negotiations [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: With limited future arrivals of rapeseed raw materials, inventories will decline seasonally. It follows the soybean meal's downward trend in the short - term, and there may be relaxation in the China - Canada tariff situation [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will be in a range - bound oscillation, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2800 - 3200 [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions should be closed; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options as a covered opening, and hold previous covered positions [21]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use option accumulation to reduce basis point - pricing risks. Consider a positive spread for the M3 - 5 calendar spread. Do a narrowing spread trade for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 contracts at high levels (650, 700) [22]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: Soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.2%. Rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 52.8% [24]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs. Oil mills worried about high imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: Soybean meal 01 closed at 2889 (-0.21%), 05 at 2743 (0.26%), 09 at 2860 (0.25%); rapeseed meal 01 at 2321 (-1.23%), 05 at 2303 (-0.09%), 09 at 2396 (0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans at 1032.75 (0%); offshore RMB at 7.1233 (0.09%) [25]. - **Spreads and Basis**: Various spreads and basis values are provided, such as the M01 - 05 spread at 159, soybean meal basis in Rizhao at 75, etc. [26]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: Import costs and profits for US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed, are presented, with Brazilian soybean import profits currently better than those of the US under 23% tariff conditions [29]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: US soybean压榨 profits decreased by 1.4% in the week ending October 17, 2025. US soybean export inspections decreased by 30.9% year - on - year as of October 16, 2025. There is no clear evidence of a La Nina event. ADM launched a "free deferred pricing" plan [29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast, with an estimated record - high planting area and output in 2025/26. There are signs of easing in China - Canada trade relations [31]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream near - month spot purchases are mainly on a "use - as - you - buy" basis [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report; Thursday: USDA export sales report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report (USDA reports are suspended due to the US government shutdown) [37]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Soybean meal prices declined due to China - US trade and real - world pressures. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal, and China - Canada meetings increased supply recovery expectations, leading to an emotional price drop. Profitable positions are mainly hedging seats, with foreign capital short - adding, indicating a bearish sentiment. The soybean meal option PCR shows strong bearish sentiment [36]. - **Outer Market**: The outer and domestic markets' trends diverge. The outer market strengthens before China - US trade negotiations and weakens after Trump's statement on intensified trade contradictions, while the domestic market's trading sensitivity decreases [52]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Regional Profit Tracking - US soybean crushing profits are weakening due to falling product prices, while Brazilian and Argentine crushing profits are rising. Canadian rapeseed crushing profits are increasing due to falling rapeseed prices [61]. 4.2 Import - Export Crushing Profit Tracking - Chinese粕类 mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing. Brazilian soybean crushing profits are declining but are still better than those of the US under 23% tariff conditions. Brazilian soybean export volumes will be limited, and domestic soybean crushing has a seasonal decline. Rapeseed imports show profits, but buying will remain cautious due to import margins [70]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the planting area is expected to marginally increase after a significant reduction in August, and the yield is expected to marginally decrease after reaching a record high. Total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. Domestic crushing demand will continue to grow, while exports are weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports may recover. Ending stocks are expected to be moderately tight [76]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Domestic soybean imports will decline in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. Domestic soybean meal production will also decline in the fourth quarter, with 2 - 3 import ships expected when import profits are available [78]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean crushing will maintain a high level but decline in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean meal consumption will have limited growth after high - level stocking [81]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventories are seasonally high but will decline in the fourth quarter. Soybean meal inventories will remain high despite reduced raw material inventories and crushing [83].