1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].