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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are expected to continue the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the soybean meal and soybean oil futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, while the palm oil futures prices are likely to show a volatile and downward - biased trend [6][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Calculation and Rating Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [3] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is volatile and weak; an increase of 0 - 1% is volatile and strong; an increase of more than 1% is strong [4] - The volatile and strong/weak viewpoints are only for intraday, without distinction between short - term and medium - term [5] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: There are still risks in long - term supply. The procurement rhythm and cost in the fourth quarter are key variables for price trends. The short - term soybean futures prices maintain the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Under the suppression of oil - meal arbitrage funds, the short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend [6] 3.2.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: The domestic soybean oil market is boosted by the US soybean oil futures prices and supported by oil - meal arbitrage funds. Driven by the expected increase in raw material soybean costs, the short - term soybean oil futures prices lead the rise in the oil market, reaching a new stage high, and the market sentiment has clearly warmed up [9] 3.2.3 Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Volatile and weak; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and weak - Core logic: The overall oil market is strengthening, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to lead the rise. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives the market sentiment. The palm oil futures prices reach a new stage high, but are greatly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations caused by capital inflows and outflows [10]