1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are expected to continue the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the soybean meal and soybean oil futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, while the palm oil futures prices are likely to show a volatile and downward - biased trend [6][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Calculation and Rating Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [3] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is volatile and weak; an increase of 0 - 1% is volatile and strong; an increase of more than 1% is strong [4] - The volatile and strong/weak viewpoints are only for intraday, without distinction between short - term and medium - term [5] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: There are still risks in long - term supply. The procurement rhythm and cost in the fourth quarter are key variables for price trends. The short - term soybean futures prices maintain the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Under the suppression of oil - meal arbitrage funds, the short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend [6] 3.2.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: The domestic soybean oil market is boosted by the US soybean oil futures prices and supported by oil - meal arbitrage funds. Driven by the expected increase in raw material soybean costs, the short - term soybean oil futures prices lead the rise in the oil market, reaching a new stage high, and the market sentiment has clearly warmed up [9] 3.2.3 Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Volatile and weak; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and weak - Core logic: The overall oil market is strengthening, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to lead the rise. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives the market sentiment. The palm oil futures prices reach a new stage high, but are greatly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations caused by capital inflows and outflows [10]

Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (August 1, 2025) [1] - Author: Bi Hui - Department: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Contact Information: Phone 0411 - 84807266, Email bihui@bcqhgs.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The short - term prices of both soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to run with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, while the medium - term prices are expected to be in a volatile state. For soybean meal, the overall performance is relatively more resistant compared to the external market [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [6] - **Core Logic**: The result of China - US negotiations was less than expected, leading to a pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures price fell below the 1000 - cent per bushel mark. The impetus of the domestic long - term procurement gap on market sentiment has weakened [6] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The repeated nature of international oil prices cannot provide continuous support for the oil market. As market sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the weak fundamental situation. The optimistic expectation for biodiesel has weakened, and the rotation market of the oil sector has paused. After the China - US trade negotiations fell short of expectations, the funds for oil - meal arbitrage temporarily avoided [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of agricultural products in the commodity futures market vary. Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply and demand, and trade agreements [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The futures price of soybean meal is affected by market sentiment, fund position - changing, and oil - meal arbitrage. Future supply expectations are influenced by Sino - US negotiation results, and short - term soybean futures prices will mainly oscillate. It is also affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Market sentiment is boosted by news of domestic soybean oil exports. The active oil - meal arbitrage funds drive the rebound of oils and fats. It is also affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7][8]. 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia has increased the optimistic expectations for palm oil demand. It is also affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - **US soybean yield forecast**: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - **Paraguayan soybean exports**: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - **Indonesian palm oil production and trade**: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - **US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade**: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural commodity futures, suggesting that the prices of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are likely to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and strong in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: US soybean产区 weather has improved, causing the US soybean futures price to show weather - driven fluctuations and decline. The market focus will shift to the July - August weather's impact on yield. The domestic soybean market follows the US soybean futures price, and after continuous price drops, it may stabilize [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the impact of international oil prices weakens, the palm oil market returns to its fundamentals. Malaysia's reduction of crude palm oil export tax and Brazil's increase in the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio boost demand. Active oil - meal arbitrage funds also support the price [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].