Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy and origin reports are favorable, with the oil market remaining strong and rapeseed oil showing significant fluctuations. Last week, soybean and palm oil prices continued to rise, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell after breaking through the upper limit. - In the origin, MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory in July increased by 7.09%, 3.82%, and 4.02% respectively. In August, production decreased by 17%, and exports increased by 17 - 24%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was raised to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton. The good - rate of US soybeans is 68%. The USDA report shows an increase in the US soybean yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, a decrease in the harvest area by 2.4 million acres to 80.1 million acres, a decrease in inventory by 200 million bushels to 290 million bushels, and a July US soybean crushing volume of 195.699 million bushels. - In the domestic market, the spot trading of soybean oil maintains a good momentum, and palm oil is mainly for essential purchases. Soybean oil inventory has increased to 1.14 million tons; 9 new purchase vessels have been added this week, and palm oil inventory is between 550,000 - 560,000 tons. - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre as expected, but the reduction in the harvest area offset the increase in yield per acre, resulting in a decrease in the new - season US soybean production and ending inventory. The report is favorable, and the July US soybean crushing volume is higher than expected and the previous month, causing CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range. Although Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory all increased in July, the inventory increase was less than expected, making the MPOB report generally favorable under the trading of the expected difference. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased, with the overall supply - demand situation improving. Indonesia has repeatedly reiterated the implementation of B50 in 2026, but the market has doubts. The Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, which will continue to restrict the growth of Indonesia's palm oil production. The supply - demand and policies in the origin provide support, and BMD crude palm oil has broken through the 4400 mark. China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, and the market is worried about future Canadian rapeseed exports, causing the ICE rapeseed price to fall. - In terms of operations, the market digests the impact of China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed. Rapeseed oil first rose and then fell. Supported by supply - demand and policies in the origin, palm oil has broken through the upper limit, and the previous low - position long positions should continue to be held. Driven by the "reverse export" trading and the strength of palm oil, the center of soybean oil continues to rise. Be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly go long on dips [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Favorable origin monthly reports and policies led CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range last week. The centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil rose significantly, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **USDA August Report on US Soybeans**: The USDA August report shows a decrease in the expected ending inventory of US soybeans. The planting area is 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres month - on - month; the harvest area is 80.1 million acres, a decrease of 2.4 million acres month - on - month; the expected yield per acre is 53.6 bushels, an increase of 1.1 bushels month - on - month; the production is 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease of 430 million bushels month - on - month; the crushing volume is 2.54 billion bushels, unchanged month - on - month; the export volume is 1.705 billion bushels, a decrease of 400 million bushels month - on - month; the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, a decrease of 200 million bushels month - on - month [14]. - **US Soybean Good - Rate**: As of the week ending August 10, the good - rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, compared with 69% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year. As of the week ending August 12, about 3% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [16]. - **US Soybean Crushing Volume in July**: In July 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 195.699 million bushels, the highest level in the same period over the years, higher than the market expectation of 191.59 million bushels and 185.709 million bushels in June. The soybean oil inventory in July was 1.379 billion pounds, close to the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than 1.366 billion pounds in June 2025 [19]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: In July, Brazil exported 12.26 million tons of soybeans, exceeding 10 million tons for five consecutive months. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 227 cents per bushel [22]. - **MPOB Report on Malaysian Palm Oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.81 million tons, an increase of 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.31 million tons, an increase of 3.82% month - on - month; inventory was 2.11 million tons, an increase of 4.02% month - on - month. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% in the first 5 days, and exports increased by 16.5% - 21.3% in the first 15 days. Malaysia raised the reference price for crude palm oil in September to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton (US$962.12) and the export tax to 10% [25][28]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Industry**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.561 million tons, exports were 2.664 million tons, and inventory was 2.906 million tons. An investigation shows that 3.7 million hectares of palm plantations have illegal activities, and the Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations [29]. - **Indian Edible Oil Imports**: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, India's soybean oil imports are expected to increase by 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports are expected to decrease by 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.8 million tons [32]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed, determining that there is dumping. Starting from August 14, 2025, a 75.8% deposit will be collected from all Canadian companies [35]. - **Domestic Oilseed Pressing Profits**: The price of raw materials in the origin decreased, and the price of domestic pressing by - products first rose and then fell. Last week, the spot and futures pressing profits of imported rapeseed reached around 800, and then fell back to 600 - 650 in the second half of the week. The price of domestic palm oil increased significantly, with 9 new purchase vessels added. The import profit inversion of palm oil for the September - December shipment period has shrunk to less than 100 [36]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: In July, 11.666 million tons of soybeans were imported, and the cumulative import from January to July was 61.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The oil mill's soybean crushing start - up rate continued to decline slightly. At the beginning of August, 2.18 million tons of soybeans were crushed weekly, and it is expected to rise to 2.37 million tons in the second week. During the same period, the soybean arrival was significantly higher than the increase in crushing volume, and the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 550,000 tons week - on - week to 7.11 million tons, the highest level in nearly a year [42]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Rapeseed Inventory and Pressing**: In recent weeks, the weekly rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained around 60,000 tons. Due to low arrivals, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of the beginning of August, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 110,000 tons, reaching a historical low [43]. - **Domestic Oil Inventory**: As of early August, soybean oil inventory increased to 1.14 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory decreased at a slower pace and stabilized at 710,000 - 730,000 tons, palm oil inventory stabilized at 550,000 - 560,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 2.34 million tons, compared with 2.03 million tons in the same period last year [46]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Prices**: As of August 15, the price of soybean oil was 8,712 yuan per ton, a 1.59% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,360 yuan per ton, a 3.08% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,965 yuan per ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous week [51]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Trading**: Recently, the spot trading of soybean oil has been good, and palm oil trading is mainly for essential needs. Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was 151,100 tons, compared with 154,400 tons the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 3,449 tons, compared with 2,183 tons the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons, compared with 2,000 tons the previous week [54]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions the basis spread, but no specific content is provided.