1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of edible oils is oscillating. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices all rose by over 1% today. Palm oil is expected to have limited price fluctuations, soybean oil will follow the palm oil trend, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [4][7][8] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59, and wait and see for options [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: For soybean oil, the 2605 closing price is 8140, with a rise of 86. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8540, 8620, and 8440 respectively, and the basis in these regions are 480, 400, and 300 respectively. For palm oil, the 2605 closing price is 8824, up 126. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8774, 8764, and 8914 respectively, and the basis are - 50, - 60, and 90 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2605 closing price is 9200, up 162. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9820, 9900, and the basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 620 and 700 respectively [2] - **Monthly spreads**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 70 with no change, that of palm oil is 10 with a rise of 8, and that of rapeseed oil is 29 with a rise of 1 [2] - **Cross - variety spreads**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is 684 with a change of - 40, the OI - Y spread is 1060, and the OI - P spread is 376 with a rise of 36. The oil - meal ratio is 2.93 with a rise of 0.05 [2] - **Import profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a disk profit of - 230, and the CNF price is 1105. The FOB price of Rotterdam rapeseed oil is 1062, and the disk profit is - 1401 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventory**: In the 6th week of 2026, the soybean oil inventory is 70.1 tons (compared with 96.0 tons last week and 94.7 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 72.7 tons (compared with 44.3 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 23.7 tons (compared with 24.2 tons last week and 64.0 tons last year) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that the price of crude palm oil in March will fluctuate between 4000 and 4300 ringgit per ton (about 1026 - 1103 US dollars). Supply tightening, increased demand from major buyer India, and the strengthening of US soybean oil prices will support palm oil prices, but the abundant global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports may limit its increase [4] - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: After the festival, palm oil prices rose. As of February 6, 2026, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 72.67 tons, a 3.61% increase from last week. The origin's quotes increased steadily, the import profit was inverted by about 200, the basis was weak, and the spot trading volume increased slightly. In the short - term, palm oil will remain oscillating [4] - **Soybean oil**: The soybean oil price rose today. Before the festival, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 168.79 tons, and the operating rate was 46.43%, a decrease from the previous week. As of February 6, 2026, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 115.52 tons, a 0.78% increase from last week. The soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable, the market trading is dull, and in the short - term, it will follow the palm oil trend [5][7] - **Rapeseed oil**: The rapeseed oil price rose today. Before the festival, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1 ton, and the operating rate was 2.67%, an increase from the previous week. As of February 20, 2026, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 9.8 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week. As of February 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 23.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion expanded to about - 1300. After the festival, the number of operating oil mills increased, the supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The basis is expected to be weak. Recently, a large amount of Canadian rapeseed has been purchased, which may bring supply pressure in the long - term. In the short - term, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the actual available inventory is tight, which supports the near - term basis. The high import cost also supports the price. The domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy, and attention should be paid to the changes in rapeseed import policies [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see in the short - term as edible oils are oscillating [10] - **Arbitrage**: Consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59 when the price is high [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].