热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：正信期货 张翠萍 弱现实主导市场走势，三大油脂纷纷破前低支撑，豆棕油回落至7月初水平，菜油回吐中加贸易争端以 来所有涨幅。 棕榈油：产业数据不佳，政策端缺乏指引 马来供应压力期尚未结束。得益于2024年4季度及2025年1季度降水充足，2025年印马棕榈油产量恢复。 2025年2季度起马来油棕果及毛棕单产快速恢复，4、5、9、11月均创近10年同期最高水平，2025年前11 个月马棕累计产量1845万吨，同比增3.4%，为2020年以来最高水平。而同期出口需求低迷，前11个月 累计出口1389万吨，同比降9.2%，近18年同期第2低；12月高频数据马棕出口继续下滑10%以上。供增 需减，10-11月马棕逆趋势累库，截止11月末已达2019年3月以来的最高水平283.5万吨，预计2026年马 棕库存中枢水平较过去几年整体抬升。 2025年前10个月印尼毛棕累计产量4394万吨，同比增近10%；6-8月棕榈油产量较高，9月大幅回落进行 修正，10月有所回升不过仍处于近几年同期低位。前10个月累计消费2066万吨，同比增5.2%；其中生 柴端累 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].