油轮运价强势，地缘波动和行业格局是何预期？ 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 印度炼油企业如信实、IOC 等自 8 月起减少俄油采购，转向中东等地， 导致印度每周消耗约 20 个 VLCC 船位，显著影响全球 VLCC 市场。 印度港口拥堵严重，Jamnagar 和 Mundra 港口卸货需 14-21 天，远高 于中国舟山的 2-3 天，加剧运力紧张，推高运价。 委内瑞拉原油产量占比极低（1%-1.3%），主要用于偿还中国债务，设 施老化和政治不稳定限制其产能快速恢复。 伊朗局势紧张，美国军事施压与谈判并存，地缘政治风险增加，可能导 致邮轮运费波动，任何冲突或制裁升级都将推高运价。 长锦商船控制全球约 20%的 VLCC 运力，主要船东合计控制超过一半运 力，提高了行业议价能力，长锦商船报价强硬，溢价能力显著。 新造 VLCC 交付有限，老旧船舶难以满足合规要求，从事非法油运输的 老旧船舶几乎无法转为合规运营，美国对受制裁船舶的制裁难以解除。 场景商船大规模收购 VLCC，但运营效率低，现金流情况不明，资金来 源传闻有 MAC 支持，短期目标是控制 130-150 条 VLCC，但模式可持 续性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in VLCC TCE rates, reflecting supply constraints and the impact of OPEC+ production increases, with expectations for further demand boost as the peak season approaches [1] Group 1: VLCC TCE Rate Changes - As of August 24, 2025, VLCC TCE rates increased by 31.7% to $45,800 per day, with VLCC TD3C (Middle East to China) TCE rising by 15.7% [1] - VLCC freight rates have shown continuous high growth for three consecutive weeks since early August, with year-on-year growth turning positive [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The improvement in freight rates during the off-season reflects tightening supply and the effects of OPEC+ production increases, with a planned increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the original plan a year early [1] - The increase in VLCC cargo volumes is expected to resonate with peak season demand [1] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing challenges due to increased sanctioned capacity and efficiency losses from aging vessels, which may accelerate the clearing of older ships if black and gray market trading windows narrow further [1] - Overall, the short-term effects of OPEC+ production increases are expected to continue influencing cargo demand, while mid-term attention should be on changes in Iranian crude oil exports and their impact on compliant demand [1]