截至1月9日收盘，A股VLCC（超大型油轮）企业招商轮船（601872）（601872.SH）本周累计上涨 9.47%，中远海能（600026）（600026.SH）累计上涨8.82%，中远海能H股（01138.HK）本周涨幅为 8.79%。 在全球地缘政治局势的扰动下，本周包括A股油运公司在内的全球油轮市场出现了难得一见的迅猛行 情。 更靓丽的走势则出现在美股市场，其中大型油轮企业DHT控股，Frontline、CMB.TECH三家公司截至美 国时间周四收盘分别上涨14.4%，18.7%和19.85%。 自去年12月底以来，运输产自委内瑞拉原油的"影子舰队"VLCC（即因欧美制裁被排除于合规运力之外 的油轮）遭到美国方面集中追捕和扣押。截至今年1月7日，遭到扣押的"影子船队"数量已经合计达到四 艘。 市场分析认为，随着"影子船队"在不断的制裁行动下的可运输范围逐渐收缩，"合规"油轮运力或将逐渐 替代"影子船队"成为地缘政治激化地区的原油运力，这导致合规运力本身供给趋紧，运价或再度迎来上 涨。 与此同时，隔夜招商轮船发布业绩预喜公告，而中远海能则放出高达24艘油轮的未来产能扩充计划，以 凸显对油轮行业未来业绩 ...

在全球地缘政治局势的扰动下，本周包括A股油运公司在内的全球油轮市场出现了难得一见的迅猛行 情。 截至1月9日收盘，A股VLCC（超大型油轮）企业招商轮船（601872.SH）本周累计上涨9.47%，中远海 能（600026.SH）累计上涨8.82%，中远海能H股（01138.HK）本周涨幅为8.79%。 更靓丽的走势则出现在美股市场，其中大型油轮企业DHT控股，Frontline、CMB.TECH三家公司截至美 国时间周四收盘分别上涨14.4%，18.7%和19.85%。 自去年12月底以来，运输产自委内瑞拉原油的"影子舰队"VLCC（即因欧美制裁被排除于合规运力之外 的油轮）遭到美国方面集中追捕和扣押。截至今年1月7日，遭到扣押的"影子船队"数量已经合计达到四 艘。 去年12月10日，美国在委内瑞拉附近海域首次扣押"斯基珀号"油轮，指控其涉及"非法石油运输网络"。 12月20日，第二起扣押行动再度于委内瑞拉附近海域执行。 市场分析认为，随着"影子船队"在不断的制裁行动下的可运输范围逐渐收缩，"合规"油轮运力或将逐渐 替代"影子船队"成为地缘政治激化地区的原油运力，这导致合规运力本身供给趋紧，运价或再度迎来上 ...

对话油轮专家 - 美国入侵委内瑞拉，将如何重塑原油与油 轮市场？20260108 摘要 VLCC 运价断崖式下跌主要受年末假期流动性真空、VLCC 船位表走宽、 吨日指标回落、OPEC+产量政策预期落差及地缘政治风险缓和等多重因 素影响，但中型船舶表现相对强劲，市场存在结构性分化。 委内瑞拉原油产量虽仅占全球供应不足 1%，但海运贸易量占比达 1.7%-1.8%，中国是主要接收国，占比 78%，其次是美国。1998 年以 来，委内瑞拉石油工业显著衰退，产量和需求国结构均发生重大变化。 美国若入侵委内瑞拉，短期内可能因全球原油市场结构性过剩导致油价 边际偏下，但会减少吨海里需求，同时因美方高压执法导致有效运力供 给收缩，支撑短期及区域性的阿夫拉型船与苏伊士型船运价。 短期内 VLCC 溢价具备再次抬升的基础，主要由于暗转明的运力置换效 应、贸易流向置换效应以及有效运力进一步收缩，但更可能呈现弱脉冲 反弹，而非单边持续性上行。 中长期来看，委内瑞拉原油回归对全球油价影响温和下压，但不会剧烈 冲击，其产量增长受限，对基准油价更多表现为边际压力。影子团队因 商业审查、保险及技术壁垒难以回归合规市场。 Q&A 最近游轮 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the shipping and logistics industry, particularly container and bulk shipping sectors, with specific references to various shipping companies and their pricing strategies. Key Points and Arguments Shipping Rates and Contracts - December contract delivery pricing is expected to be around 1,630 points, with potential ceilings between 1,670 and 1,690 points due to suboptimal delivery outcomes from shipping companies like Maersk [2][6] - January pricing shows significant divergence among shipping companies, with expectations ranging from 1,300 to 1,700 points, suggesting a strategy of light valuation and heavy driving [2][7] - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates are performing strongly, while Suezmax rates are average; LR2 rates have surged to $45,000 per day, influenced by the strength of European naphtha and diesel spreads [2][13] Container Shipping Insights - Container shipping rates on the US routes have stabilized, with improved loading rates for shipowners; however, there is market caution regarding price increases planned by companies like Hangzhou [2][15] - European route pricing for the second week of December ranges from $1,900 to $2,400, with an average of $2,250, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [3] Pricing Strategies of Major Shipping Companies - Maersk and CMA CGM announced price increases for late December to $3,500, but actual FAK (Freight All Kinds) prices were lower at $2,640 and $2,440 respectively [4] - The PA alliance is expected to follow suit with price increases, but faces challenges due to insufficient long-term cargo volumes [5] Future Price Expectations - The first delivery index for December contracts is projected at 1,630 points, with potential difficulties in maintaining current prices due to Maersk's underperformance in spot cargo [6][9] - There is a possibility of unexpected performance in December pricing, contingent on cargo releases in mid-December [9] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The recent attack on the CPC pipeline has raised concerns, particularly affecting European oil supply and Suezmax rates [10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence VLCC demand depending on the status of sanctions and economic viability for China and India to purchase discounted Russian oil [11][12] Bulk Shipping Market Performance - Cape-sized bulk carriers have shown strong performance, with rates nearing $38,000 per day, the highest in two years, expected to continue for over two weeks [14] - The demand for iron ore and bauxite is projected to grow, with significant contributions from major mining companies, leading to an overall demand growth of approximately 2.3% for Cape-sized vessels in 2026 [16][17] Stock Market and Investment Outlook - Recent stock market fluctuations are attributed to sentiment rather than fundamental changes, with predictions for shipping rates in 2026 causing sell-off pressures [18] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on building positions during market dips, as the outlook for the shipping sector remains positive despite short-term volatility [18] Additional Important Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing a complex interplay of pricing strategies, geopolitical influences, and market dynamics that require careful analysis for investment opportunities and risk assessment [2][18]

油运：Q4 盈利将创十年新高，把握分歧与逆向时机 20251203 摘要 VLCC 运价屡创新高后虽有回落，仍维持在 12 万美元以上，远超盈亏平 衡线，显示油运市场旺季的运价弹性。四季度业绩预计将创十年新高， 全年业绩也将达到十年内新高水平。 上半年地缘政治和伊朗增产的负面影响减弱，原油定价回归供需，炼厂 开工率回升，推动油运需求。美国对伊朗制裁趋严及中国港口合规要求 提升，降低了影子船队的影响。 下半年中东和南美原油增产，叠加美国对俄罗斯制裁，驱动供需边际改 善，推升运价中枢。OPEC+增产及南美产量增长，特别是南美至亚洲航 距较长，进一步增加海运需求。 预计未来两年油运行业供需向好，有望迎来超级周期。OPEC+预计继续 增产，南美页岩油革命加速，美国对俄罗斯制裁持续，共同驱动全球原 油运输需求增长。 俄乌和谈对油运行业投资逻辑影响有限，可能驱动老船拆解潮，形成自 我对冲机制。在全球原油增产大周期背景下，未来两年供需仍将向好， 建议理性看待季节性淡季及俄乌和谈影响。 Q&A 近期油运市场的运价表现如何？ 从 8 月份开始，油运市场的运价中枢逐步上升，到 9 月份单月出现了显著的翻 倍以上的飙升。尽管 10 ...

Trafigura大举订造VLCC源于其对这一船型市场前景的强烈信心。该公司认为，VLCC市场正在增长， 需要"用新船替换老旧船队"。 近期，VLCC新船订单激增。克拉克森的数据显示，自7月以来VLCC新船订单数量已达38艘，而今年上 半年仅为12艘。Banchero Costa全球研究主管Ralph Leszczynski表示，订单增长的原因在于之前投资不 足，以及中期市场前景乐观。 瑞士大宗商品贸易公司托克（Trafigura）重返韩通船舶重工，增订2艘319000载重吨VLCC。 据贸易风消息，最新的2艘VLCC船体编号HT-OT319-467和HT-OT319-468，预计交付时间为2029年9月 和2030年3月。新船价格并未公布，据此前船舶经纪人估计，Trafigura这批VLCC单船造价不超过1.2亿 美元。 作为参考，克拉克森的数据显示，目前一艘315000-320000载重吨VLCC新造船价格约为1.26亿美元（约 合人民币8.97亿元），相比去年同期的1.29亿美元略微下滑。 连同最新订单在内，Trafigura已经在韩通船舶重工订造了10艘VLCC。据了解，该公司在去年年初与韩 通船舶重 ...

Summary of Conference Call on VLCC Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market, which is significantly influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, reshaping global oil trade patterns [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Impact of Geopolitical Events - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted Russian oil exports from Europe to the Middle East, India, and the US, increasing transportation distances and average voyage lengths, which in turn raises freight rates [1][5][12]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian oil and the price cap policy have further extended shipping distances, contributing to higher overall freight rates [1][5]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - VLCC effective capacity has contracted significantly, with a tracked volume of 67 vessels last week, above the average of 50-70 vessels this year [2][4]. - The available VLCC positions in the Middle East for the next 30 days have decreased to 121 vessels, indicating a tight supply situation [2][4]. - Demand for VLCCs is expected to remain strong due to seasonal factors and trade restructuring, although a potential adjustment period may follow the peak season in Q4 [8][15]. 3. Freight Rate Trends - Current freight rates are at elevated levels, with the TD3C route (Middle East to East) TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) reaching $140,000 per day, significantly higher than the average of $51,000 per day earlier this year [4]. - One-year VLCC charter rates have increased from around $50,000 to $56,000-$57,000 per day, reflecting market confidence in sustained high demand [4][8]. 4. Future Market Outlook - The VLCC market is expected to face a tightening supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries, with only one new vessel expected in 2024 and 5-6 in 2025 [9][11]. - The effective capacity growth is projected to be limited to under 2% over the next three years due to the aging fleet and insufficient new orders [9][11]. - The market anticipates that even in a downturn, freight rates will not drop significantly below $40,000 per day due to the elevated bottom price levels established [8][16]. 5. Role of Shadow Fleets - Shadow fleets, comprising 17%-20% of the global fleet, are facing increased scrutiny due to sanctions, which may lead to a reduction in their operational capacity and a return of demand to compliant VLCCs [10][14]. - The aging of these shadow vessels poses safety risks, and any significant incidents could lead to a sudden contraction in effective supply [10][14]. 6. New Ship Orders and Market Balance - The current order volume for VLCCs is at a historical low of about 12.8% of the existing fleet, indicating cautious behavior from shipowners [11]. - A significant increase in new orders could lead to oversupply, particularly if it exceeds the 25% threshold of the fleet size [11][20]. 7. Long-term Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to navigate a strong cyclical window over the next 2-3 years, balancing supply responses, demand resilience, and geopolitical developments [20]. - Scenarios include rapid retirement of aging vessels and escalating sanctions, which are more likely than uncontrolled new orders or unexpected energy transitions [20]. Additional Important Insights - The effective capacity of VLCCs is not just a function of the number of vessels but also their operational efficiency and compliance with regulations [9][10]. - The geopolitical landscape is seen as a short-term amplifier of market conditions rather than a long-term driver, with structural issues like fleet aging and insufficient new orders being more critical [12][20].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market over the next 2-3 years, driven by rising rental rates and tight supply conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - VLCC rental rates for 1-3 year terms have surged since November, with 1-year rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a high proportion of older VLCCs and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older vessels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Increased compliance market demand is anticipated due to ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude oil exports from Europe and the U.S. [1]. - Domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, further supporting the market [1]. Group 3: Regional Developments - Recent production increases in the Middle East and South America have positively impacted the market, while U.S. sanctions on Russia have led India to reduce imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf sources [1]. - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, with VLCC-TCE rates on the Middle East to China route recently reaching over $120,000, marking a new high [1]. Group 4: Future Projections - The forecast for Q4 2025 indicates that profits for crude carriers are expected to reach a ten-year high [1].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) saw its stock price rise over 4% against the market trend, currently trading at 11.51 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.82 billion HKD, driven by record-high VLCC daily charter rates [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - VLCC daily charter rates have reached a new high, exceeding 125,000 USD, with the VLCC TD3C-TCE index at 12.58 million USD/day, reflecting a day-on-day increase of 20% and a week-on-week increase of 23% [1] - The increase in VLCC rates is attributed to two main sustainable drivers: increased production and sanctions, leading to marginal benefits in both demand quantity and structure, while the growth of compliant supply capacity remains limited [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - CITIC Securities noted that OET, a US tanker company, locked in 80% of its VLCC charter rates for Q4 at an average of 88,000 USD per day [1] - Assuming an average VLCC charter rate of 100,000 USD per day for Q4, Zhongyuan Shipping's net profit is projected to be between 2 billion to 2.5 billion HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its third-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a mixed performance in the oil tanker market, with VLCC rates showing significant improvement while other segments faced challenges [7][8]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, although the decline has narrowed [8]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 850 million, representing a 4.4% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - The average daily earnings for VLCC on the TD3C route (Middle East to China) were USD 42,918, up approximately 16.5% year-on-year [7]. - The average daily earnings for LR2 on the TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) were USD 29,506, down about 37.4% year-on-year [7]. Operational Highlights - The company’s oil tanker capacity input for the first three quarters of 2025 was 665,599 deadweight tons per day, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year [8]. - The transportation volume (excluding time charter) was 13.88 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [8]. - The transportation turnover (excluding time charter) reached 4.942 billion ton-miles, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [8]. - The oil tanker segment generated a total revenue of RMB 14.74 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, while the operating costs rose by 6.3% to RMB 11.93 billion [8]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to lease six VLCCs from a related party, with an average fixed daily rent of RMB 134,871 per vessel, and a rental structure combining fixed and profit-sharing elements [39][42]. - The leasing agreement is expected to enhance the company's operational capacity and revenue potential while optimizing cash flow management [43][65]. - The transaction is part of the company's strategy to maintain a leading position in the oil tanker market and ensure energy transportation safety [43][63]. Upcoming Events - The company will participate in a collective performance briefing for the third-quarter results on November 13, 2025, to address investor inquiries [27][28].