VLCC 有效运力呈现隐形收缩趋势，2024-2025 年新船交付几乎真空， 大量老旧船舶流入影子船队，对主流合规市场贡献小，新船订单更多是 置换而非新增，有效运力三年内增速有限。 制裁与影子船队是支撑大周期运行的重要因素，欧盟和英国联合制裁影 子船队，美国加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，引发租家抢订合规船只的需 求，逐步减少老旧不合规船只。 至 4 倍。这些变化进一步推高了运价。 当前高位运行是否具有持续性？ 对话油轮专家：运价持续突破，后续市场如何展望？ 20251123 摘要 俄乌冲突重塑全球原油贸易格局，导致俄罗斯至欧洲的短程贸易转向远 东和印度等长航线，显著拉长平均航程，推高吨海里数，成为油运市场 运价上涨的关键因素。 VLCC 有效运力收缩明显，上周可追踪的 VLCC 货盘成交量达 67 艘，高 于年内平均水平，中东未来 30 天可用 VLCC 船位紧张，供给偏紧支撑 运价高位运行，且市场对高景气度持续性抱有信心。 地缘政治风险放大油运市场波动，俄罗斯原油出口转向中东、印度和美 国，欧盟对俄原油禁运及价格上限政策持续升级，进一步拉长运输距离， 显著增加吨海里数，推高整体运价。 VLCC 市场核心驱动因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market over the next 2-3 years, driven by rising rental rates and tight supply conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - VLCC rental rates for 1-3 year terms have surged since November, with 1-year rates surpassing the highest levels seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a high proportion of older VLCCs and new supply primarily aimed at replacing these older vessels [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Increased compliance market demand is anticipated due to ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude oil exports from Europe and the U.S. [1]. - Domestic crude oil import demand and potential inventory replenishment needs are expected to be released, further supporting the market [1]. Group 3: Regional Developments - Recent production increases in the Middle East and South America have positively impacted the market, while U.S. sanctions on Russia have led India to reduce imports of Russian oil in favor of Middle Eastern and Gulf sources [1]. - The sentiment among shipowners is optimistic, with VLCC-TCE rates on the Middle East to China route recently reaching over $120,000, marking a new high [1]. Group 4: Future Projections - The forecast for Q4 2025 indicates that profits for crude carriers are expected to reach a ten-year high [1].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) saw its stock price rise over 4% against the market trend, currently trading at 11.51 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.82 billion HKD, driven by record-high VLCC daily charter rates [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - VLCC daily charter rates have reached a new high, exceeding 125,000 USD, with the VLCC TD3C-TCE index at 12.58 million USD/day, reflecting a day-on-day increase of 20% and a week-on-week increase of 23% [1] - The increase in VLCC rates is attributed to two main sustainable drivers: increased production and sanctions, leading to marginal benefits in both demand quantity and structure, while the growth of compliant supply capacity remains limited [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - CITIC Securities noted that OET, a US tanker company, locked in 80% of its VLCC charter rates for Q4 at an average of 88,000 USD per day [1] - Assuming an average VLCC charter rate of 100,000 USD per day for Q4, Zhongyuan Shipping's net profit is projected to be between 2 billion to 2.5 billion HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its third-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting a mixed performance in the oil tanker market, with VLCC rates showing significant improvement while other segments faced challenges [7][8]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, although the decline has narrowed [8]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 850 million, representing a 4.4% increase compared to the same period last year [8]. - The average daily earnings for VLCC on the TD3C route (Middle East to China) were USD 42,918, up approximately 16.5% year-on-year [7]. - The average daily earnings for LR2 on the TC1 route (Middle East to Japan) were USD 29,506, down about 37.4% year-on-year [7]. Operational Highlights - The company’s oil tanker capacity input for the first three quarters of 2025 was 665,599 deadweight tons per day, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year [8]. - The transportation volume (excluding time charter) was 13.88 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [8]. - The transportation turnover (excluding time charter) reached 4.942 billion ton-miles, an increase of 14.3% year-on-year [8]. - The oil tanker segment generated a total revenue of RMB 14.74 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, while the operating costs rose by 6.3% to RMB 11.93 billion [8]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to lease six VLCCs from a related party, with an average fixed daily rent of RMB 134,871 per vessel, and a rental structure combining fixed and profit-sharing elements [39][42]. - The leasing agreement is expected to enhance the company's operational capacity and revenue potential while optimizing cash flow management [43][65]. - The transaction is part of the company's strategy to maintain a leading position in the oil tanker market and ensure energy transportation safety [43][63]. Upcoming Events - The company will participate in a collective performance briefing for the third-quarter results on November 13, 2025, to address investor inquiries [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Huan Yu Company, plans to sign a charter agreement with a related party, COSCO Shipping Hainan, to lease six VLCCs for a maximum period of 240 months ± 90 days [1] Summary by Categories Transaction Details - The average fixed daily rent for the six vessels is 134,871 yuan per vessel (excluding tax) [1] - Three of the vessels will operate under a "minimum + sharing" model, with annual shared rental income not exceeding 131 million yuan [1] Related Party Transactions - This transaction constitutes a related party transaction but does not qualify as a major asset restructuring [1] - The transaction requires approval from the shareholders' meeting, with related shareholders abstaining from voting [1] Historical Context - The cumulative amount of related transactions over the past 12 months is approximately 598 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the A-share issuance by China Merchants Energy Transport Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company") demonstrates strong market confidence and enhances its capital strength, aligning with its strategic goals in the energy transportation sector [1][3]. Group 1: Fundraising Details - The company raised approximately 8 billion RMB through a targeted issuance of A-shares, with a share price of 11.52 RMB, marking one of the largest private placements in the A-share market in the past two years [1]. - The project took 9 months from internal decision-making in January 2025 to full fund receipt in October, showcasing the company's efficient capital operation capabilities [2]. Group 2: Investor Participation - The issuance attracted seven major institutional investors, including the controlling shareholder China Ocean Shipping Group Co., Ltd., which subscribed for 50% of the shares, along with various state-owned and green investment funds [2]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Capital Strength - The issuance price represented a 23.34% premium over the base price of 9.34 RMB, with the effective subscription amount being approximately 2.5 times the market inquiry fundraising scale, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's future [3]. - The successful fundraising significantly enhances the company's capital strength, optimizes its asset-liability structure, and improves its risk resistance capabilities [3]. Group 4: Investment in Sustainable Development - The raised funds will be used to construct six VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers), two LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) carriers, and three methanol dual-fuel Aframax tankers, aligning with the company's core business and the green low-carbon development trend [4]. - The construction of high-end environmentally friendly vessels will help the company meet international maritime organization (IMO) emission reduction requirements and contribute to sustainable development in global energy transportation [4]. - The completion of this capital operation marks an acceleration in the company's green fleet construction, reinforcing its core competitiveness in the global energy transportation sector [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of China's port fee policy against U.S. vessels on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market and dry bulk shipping [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Port Fee Policy**: - China will implement a special port fee for U.S. vessels starting from October 14, 2025, with fees increasing to 1,120 RMB by 2028. The initial fee will be 400 RMB [2][4]. - This policy aims to counter U.S. trade friction and is expected to reduce shipping efficiency, particularly in the VLCC market, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. 2. **Impact on Shipping Efficiency**: - The high port fees will create a division in shipping capacity, making it harder to match cargo with vessels, thus lowering supply chain efficiency [1][6]. - The U.S. vessels account for 1.2% in container shipping, 1.0% in bulk shipping, and 2.1% in tanker shipping, with actual international shipping participation being lower due to domestic protection policies [2][3]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - China's iron ore and crude oil imports represent 75% and 24% of global imports, respectively, making the new regulations significantly impactful on these transport sectors [2][3]. - The current market for crude oil transportation is tight, especially in the Middle East, exacerbated by the new port fee policy [5][10]. 4. **Long-term Market Benefits**: - While the policy may cause short-term disruptions, it is expected to benefit the tanker and bulk shipping markets in the long run by increasing freight rates [3][12]. - The increase in production from non-OPEC regions and ongoing sanctions against Iran are seen as positive drivers for the VLCC market [10][11]. 5. **Uncertainties in Implementation**: - There are uncertainties regarding the specifics of the policy implementation, particularly how ownership and operational control will be defined, which could expand the policy's impact [4][6]. 6. **Geopolitical Influences**: - Geopolitical events, such as conflicts and trade policies, are likely to create volatility in the shipping market, potentially benefiting VLCC and bulk shipping rates [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Dry Bulk Market**: The dry bulk market is experiencing steady demand growth, supported by long-distance mineral transport projects and a potential increase in trade activity due to a favorable monetary policy environment [15]. - **Recommended Stocks**: The most promising stocks include China Merchants Energy Shipping, Central Huijin, and dry bulk-related stocks like Haitong Development and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of China's port fee policy on the shipping industry and the broader market dynamics at play.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil transportation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The recent surge in oil transportation prices is attributed to a combination of reduced shipping capacity and increased crude oil production, with VLCC average daily charter rates rising significantly [1][3]. - OPEC+ has decided to implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day in October, which is expected to stimulate global crude oil demand and subsequently boost oil transportation needs [2]. - The tightening of sanctions by the US and Europe on shadow tanker markets is likely to increase the demand for compliant tanker capacity, further driving up prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Price Trends - The average daily charter rate for VLCCs surged to $71,863 on September 12, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 59% since early September [1]. OPEC+ Production Adjustments - OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since April 2025 to defend market share, which is expected to stimulate crude oil export demand [2]. Impact of Sanctions - Recent sanctions against shadow tanker markets, including significant measures against the Houthis and Russian-related fleets, are anticipated to shift more crude oil trade towards compliant tankers, potentially raising their prices [2]. Investment Strategy - The oil transportation industry is entering a peak season, with expectations of continued price increases due to OPEC+ production boosts and heightened sanctions [3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872), China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975), and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) as potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have reached new highs, with the TD3C rate hitting $74,338 per day, a year-on-year increase of 113%, indicating a strong Q4 peak is expected [1] - OPEC+ has announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, contributing to a tighter supply-demand balance in the oil tanker market [2] - The supply side is constrained due to ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets, with 17% of the crude oil tanker fleet under sanctions, which is expected to further tighten supply [3] - The global VLCC fleet has seen only 3 new deliveries this year, with 1 vessel scrapped, leading to a significant supply shortage [4] - The demand side is benefiting from OPEC+ production increases, while limited new deliveries and sanctions on non-compliant fleets are expected to drive freight rates to new highs in Q4 [5] Summary by Sections VLCC Freight Rates - VLCC freight rates have reached $74,338 per day, a 113% increase year-on-year, with expectations for Q4 to set a three-year high [1] OPEC+ Production Increases - OPEC+ has implemented multiple production increases throughout the year, totaling 2.193 million barrels per day, which is expected to support the oil tanker market [2] Sanctions Impact - The number of sanctioned vessels has risen to 1,636, accounting for 4% of global capacity, with 830 oil tankers under sanctions, representing 17% of the crude oil tanker fleet [3] VLCC Supply Constraints - The global VLCC fleet consists of 906 vessels, with only 3 delivered this year and 1 scrapped, indicating a tight supply situation [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, anticipating a significant increase in freight rates [5]

Summary of Conference Call on VLCC Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) segment within the oil shipping industry, highlighting recent price surges and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Surge**: VLCC rates skyrocketed to $71,000 this week, marking a 30% increase, indicating tightening supply and demand dynamics due to a significant reduction in available VLCCs for immediate loading [1][3]. 2. **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ is gradually releasing an additional 2.2 million barrels per day, crucial for structural demand recovery, particularly with a deadline in September for most of this increase to materialize [1][4]. 3. **Market Share Recovery**: OPEC+ aims to regain market share lost to shale oil since 2020, with production increases intended to stabilize global oil prices and balance geopolitical factors [5][11]. 4. **Stable Oil Prices**: Oil prices have stabilized between $65-$70 per barrel, stimulating global inventory replenishment, with China’s August imports rising significantly [6][8]. 5. **Global Trade Route Changes**: The restructuring of global trade routes has increased long-distance shipping demand, with Brazil's oil exports to China rising by 60% year-on-year, contributing to supply-demand tension [7][19]. 6. **Iranian Supply Resilience**: Despite extreme pressure, Iranian oil production has rebounded to over 3 million barrels per day, with exports around 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating limited impact from sanctions [8][9]. 7. **Market Sentiment**: Current market sentiment is positive, with expectations of continued price increases at least until Q4 2025, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [2][10]. 8. **Future Price Trends**: The upward trend in VLCC rates is expected to persist due to effective supply constraints and structural demand growth, with projections extending into 2026 [12][13]. 9. **Old Vessel Retirement Challenges**: The retirement of aging vessels is hindered by their operational profitability, as many older VLCCs remain economically viable despite their age [14][15]. 10. **Low New Ship Orders**: New ship orders remain low due to high construction costs and uncertainties regarding future environmental regulations, which deter investment in new vessels [16][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Geopolitical Events**: Geopolitical factors, such as sanctions and environmental policies, are expected to further influence the operational landscape for older vessels, potentially leading to their retirement [15][20]. - **Market Concentration**: The VLCC market is highly concentrated, with the top ten companies holding a significant market share, which affects decision-making and investment in new vessels [17][18]. - **Future Shipping Market Outlook**: The shipping market is anticipated to experience structural improvements, with a conservative growth forecast for VLCC rates, contingent on OPEC+ policies and geopolitical stability [20].