1. 11月24日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.15%，标普500指数期货涨0.33%，纳指期货涨 0.61%。 | = US 30 | 46,316.80 | 46,502.80 | 46,157.50 | +71.20 | +0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6.624.60 | 6,653.10 | 6,609.40 | +21.60 | +0.33% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 24,386.90 | 24.493.00 | 24,293.50 | +147.30 | +0.61% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨0.02%，英国富时100指数跌0.26%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.18%。 | DAX | 12月25日 | 23,250.80 | 23,439.00 | 23,190.80 | +112.80 | +0.49% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | II CAC 4 ...

（原标题：美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐涨，大摩认为美股回调即将结束） 能相关的股票包括：Frontline ( FRO.US)、Teekay ( TK.US )、Teekay Tankers ( TNK.US )、CMB.Tech ( CMBT.US )、Scorpio Tankers ( STNG.US )、DHT Holdings ( DHT.US )、Tsakos Energy Navigation ( TEN.US )、Navios Maritime Holdings ( NMM.US )、International Seaways ( INSW.US )、Nordic American Tankers ( NAT.US )、SFL Corp. ( SFL.US )。 1. 11月24日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.15%，标普500指数期货 涨0.33%，纳指期货涨0.61%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨0.02%，英国富时100指数跌0.26%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨0.18%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.17%，报57 ...

印度等国正在寻求采购俄罗斯以外的原油 印度的石油企业宣布停止购买俄罗斯产原油，印度出现了原油采购"去俄罗斯化"的动向。有观点指出， 中国也同样试图分散采购地。 大部分俄罗斯原油是用被称为"影子船队"的老旧油轮秘密运输的。日本商船三井的油轮事业第一组负责 人渡边大辅表示，"由于印度从其他产油国增加采购，所以正规市场的超大型油轮供需紧张"。 由于俄罗斯产原油供应中断，有观点认为原油价格将上涨，市场陷入混乱状态。商船三井的渡边表 示："租船方强烈希望能够确保拿到船只，这导致运价急剧飙升"。 印度的石油企业宣布停止购买俄罗斯产原油，印度出现了原油采购"去俄罗斯化"的动向。有 观点指出，中国也同样试图分散采购地。美国原油对中国的出口增长也备受期待…… 超大型油轮（VLCC、载重约30万吨）的现货（即时合约）运费正在暴涨。背景是在美国加强对俄罗斯 制裁的趋势下，一直积极购买俄罗斯产原油的印度和中国增加了从其他产油国的采购。很多声音认为油 轮的供需紧张将持续下去。 截至11月13日，作为主要航线中东—远东之间的运费指标，世界油轮名义运费指数(WS、以标准运费为 100）达到了约132。如果按租船费计算，则上涨到每天12.5 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, the company reported a profit of $40.3 million, or $0.18 per share, with an adjusted profit of $42.5 million, or $0.19 per share, reflecting a decrease of $37.8 million compared to the previous quarter due to lower time charter earnings [4][5] - Time charter earnings fell from $283 million in the previous quarter to $248 million in Q3 2024 [4] - Operating expenses increased by $3.1 million from the previous quarter, attributed to a decrease in supply rates and costs related to ship management changes [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved daily rates of $34,300 for VLCCs, $35,100 for Suezmax, and $31,400 for LR2/Aframax fleets in Q3 2024 [3] - For Q4 2024, 75% of VLCC days are booked at $83,300 per day, 75% of Suezmax days at $60,600, and 51% of LR2/Aframax days at $42,200 [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil in transit has reached record highs, with export volumes growing, particularly from the Americas and the Atlantic Basin [10] - Year-on-year, Middle Eastern producers' exports increased by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day in October [10] - The company noted logistical challenges in trading sanctioned export oil, particularly affecting Lukoil and Rosneft [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is optimistic about the tanker market, citing a return to a VLCC-centric trade pattern driven by strong export numbers from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada [12][20] - The order book for tankers is increasing, but the company believes that effective fleet growth will remain muted due to the aging fleet and limited new builds [18][20] - The company aims to focus on VLCCs, which have shown better economic returns compared to other classes [55] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the current market developments and the potential for sustained high rates due to limited fleet growth and strong demand for compliant oil [20] - The company anticipates a prolonged period of tightness in the shipping market, with firm refining margins and high utilization rates [20] - Management acknowledged the volatility of the market but noted that key fundamentals are supportive of continued strength [66] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with $819 million in cash and cash equivalents and no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 [6] - The average cash-based breakeven rates for the next 12 months are estimated at approximately $26,000 for VLCCs, $23,300 for Suezmax, and $23,600 for LR2 tankers [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the company looking to deleverage the balance sheet while maintaining dividends? - Management indicated that they are not particularly comfortable with low loan-to-value ratios and have been conservative in their financial analysis, focusing on cash generation rather than actively reducing debt [24][25] Question: How do older ships become less efficient without being scrapped? - Management explained that older ships face high insurance costs and limited trading options, making them less efficient in the compliant oil market, which could lead to a gradual reduction in their effective fleet presence without actual scrapping [28][29] Question: What is the outlook for the dark fleet and its impact on the market? - Management noted an increase in vessels sitting idle and discussed potential solutions for recycling sanctioned vessels, indicating that the dark fleet's dynamics are complex and evolving [36][37] Question: How does the current market environment affect vessel demand? - Management highlighted that while there is currently no contango, modest contango could support trade lanes and enhance vessel demand, particularly as oil prices remain firm [41][42] Question: What is the company's view on floating storage demand? - Management clarified that current floating storage is more related to logistics and weather rather than commercial viability, contrasting it with the high demand seen during COVID [61][62] Question: How does the company view Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025? - Management expressed optimism for Q1 2026, citing strong fundamentals and a tight physical shipping market, although they acknowledged the inherent volatility of the market [66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2024, the company reported a profit of $40.3 million, or $0.18 per share, with an adjusted profit of $42.5 million, or $0.19 per share, reflecting a decrease of $37.8 million from the previous quarter primarily due to lower time charter earnings [4][5] - Time charter earnings fell from $283 million in the previous quarter to $248 million in Q3 2024 [4] - Operating expenses increased by $3.1 million from the previous quarter, attributed to a decrease in supply rate and costs related to a change in ship management [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved daily rates of $34,300 for VLCCs, $35,100 for Suezmax, and $31,400 for LR2/Aframax fleets in Q3 2024 [3] - For Q4 2024, 75% of VLCC days are booked at $83,300 per day, 75% of Suezmax days at $60,600, and 51% of LR2/Aframax days at $42,200 [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oil in transit has reached record highs, with export volumes increasing, particularly from the Americas and the Atlantic Basin [10] - Year-on-year, Middle Eastern producers' exports are up by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day for October [10] - The company noted logistical challenges around the trade of sanctioned export oil, particularly affecting Lukoil and Rosneft [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity, with $819 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025 [6] - The fleet consists of 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers, and 18 LR2 tankers, all ECO vessels, with a strategy to capitalize on the VLCC-centric trade pattern [6][12] - The company is optimistic about the tanker market's longevity due to limited growth in the compliant tanker fleet and strong oil export fundamentals [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed excitement about the current market developments, indicating a positive outlook for the tanker industry [2] - The company anticipates a sustained contango structure in the oil market, which could lead to inventory builds and increased demand for compliant vessels [12][20] - Management highlighted that the tanker market is experiencing high utilization and strong oil exports, with limited growth in the compliant tanker fleet [20] Other Important Information - The company has no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 and no new building commitments, allowing for flexibility in financial management [6] - The average cash-based breakeven rates for the next 12 months are estimated at approximately $26,000 per day for VLCCs, $23,300 for Suezmax, and $23,600 for LR2 tankers [7][8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the company looking to deleverage the balance sheet while maintaining dividends? - Management stated that they are different from peers and are not particularly comfortable with low loan-to-value ratios, indicating a conservative approach to financial management [22][24] Question: How do older ships become less efficient without being scrapped? - Management explained that older vessels face high insurance costs and limited trading options, making them less efficient in the compliant oil market [26][29] Question: What is the outlook for the dark fleet and its impact on the market? - Management noted an increasing number of vessels sitting idle and discussed potential solutions for recycling sanctioned vessels [34][36] Question: How does the current market environment affect vessel demand? - Management indicated that the current market is tight, with no signs of weakness, and highlighted key fundamentals supporting the market [65][70] Question: What is the outlook for Q1 compared to Q4? - Management expressed optimism for Q1, citing strong fundamentals that were not present in Q4 of the previous year [66][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the nine months of 2025, the company generated $577 million in gross revenues and an operating income of $171 million, which included $12.5 million of capital gains from the sale of four older vessels [22][29] - The net income for the third quarter of 2025 was reported at $38.3 million, translating to $1.05 in earnings per share [32] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months of 2025 was approximately $290 million, while cash at hand at the end of September 2025 stood at $264 million [29][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fleet utilization increased from 92.2% to 96.2% during the nine months of 2025, with a time charter equivalent rate of $30,703 [24] - The fleet time charter equivalent per day for the third quarter of 2025 was $30,601, reflecting a focus on diminishing presence in the spot markets [30] - Operating expenses per ship per day averaged $9,797 for the nine months of 2025, and $9,904 for the third quarter [25][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The tanker markets have remained healthy, with a significant increase in demand for vessels, particularly in the crude sector and VLCCs [21] - The company has a backlog of approximately $4 billion in minimum fleet contracted revenue, indicating strong market demand [11][22] - The average age of sold vessels was 17.3 years, while the average age of newly acquired vessels is 0.6 years, indicating a strategic shift towards a younger fleet [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a record 20 vessel new building program, with deliveries starting in Q1 2026 until Q4 2028, including three VLCCs to grow its market presence [5][6] - The strategy includes selling older tonnage to maintain a modern fleet and investing in eco-friendly, dual-fuel vessels [18] - The company aims to align dividend payments with audited results, having declared an additional $1 per share dividend [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market, noting a more than 50% increase in the spot market since September [8] - The geopolitical landscape has created nervousness in the market, which the company plans to leverage through its chartering strategy [36] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the upcoming quarters, driven by a robust demand for tanker services [9][35] Other Important Information - The company has successfully navigated various crises over the years, turning challenges into growth opportunities [11] - The fair market value of the operating fleet is approximately $4 billion against $1.9 billion in debt, with a net debt to capital ratio of around 47% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on VLCC employment terms and plans for the Ulysses vessel - Management noted a significant increase in profit-sharing arrangements and a strong appetite for vessels, with further details to be provided later [38] Question: Plans for the Maria Energy vessel after its current contract - The vessel is chartered back-to-back with no downtime expected between contracts [40] Question: Expectations for MR new builds and potential long-term contracts - There is a strong appetite for new builds, with several major oil companies interested in long-term contracts [41] Question: Insights on fleet renewal and asset sales - The company is negotiating the sale of five first-generation vessels, potentially releasing close to $250 million in net cash for the new building program [49]

"全球油轮需求正飙升至十多年来的最高水平——这并不是因为世界突然消耗了更多石油，而是因为每一桶原油都在航得更远。"——劳氏船级社（Lloyd's Register）油轮业务全球总监 Theo Kourmpelis。 在近日的一场行业论坛上，Kourmpelis 用这样一句话总结了当前油轮市场的本质变化。他指出，一波新的出口基础设施建设浪潮，正在重塑全球石油贸易 版图：原油正以更远、更复杂、更多样化的航线跨越海洋。 Theo Kourmpelis 是劳氏船级社油轮全球业务总监 全球油轮需求进入"结构性繁荣" 来自加拿大太平洋沿岸、圭亚那近海油田、阿根廷深水码头以及哈萨克斯坦经黑海出口的新航线，正在改写海上能源流向。 Kourmpelis 认为，这种变化带来的并非短期行情，而是结构性的需求增长："吨海里需求的增加正在支撑运价，并推动所有主要油轮船型的订单上升。这 不是投机，而是地理重构带来的长期趋势。" 截至10月底，全球油轮平均收益已接近5万美元/天，为过去10年均值的两倍；VLCC即期运价更一度突破10万美元/天。 油轮市场复苏原因 油轮市场的复苏，源自一场全球范围内的航线调整： 加拿大的跨山输油扩建项目（T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping, shipbuilding, and aviation sectors, indicating a fundamental improvement despite low fund holdings [3]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector has seen a reversal of negative factors, with second-hand ship prices stabilizing and surpassing 2024 highs, suggesting potential for new ship price increases [3]. - The oil tanker market is experiencing strong demand due to OPEC's production increases and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil supplies, leading to a significant rise in freight rates [3]. - Fund holdings in the transportation sector have decreased to a historical low, with notable increases in the market value of shipping, ports, airports, and cross-border logistics [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings in the Transportation Sector - As of Q3 2025, the total market value of funds in the transportation sector reached 18 billion yuan, a 30% decrease from the previous quarter, ranking 17th among 31 sectors [4][5]. - The transportation sector's market value accounts for 2.68% of total A-share market value, with an underweight of 1.59% [4]. 2. Changes in Fund Holdings by Sub-sectors - The proportion of fund holdings in aviation, shipping, ports, airports, raw material supply chain services, and cross-border logistics has increased, with aviation transportation holding the largest share at 37.62% [10]. - The market value changes for various sectors include significant increases in shipping and raw material supply chain services, while express delivery and highways saw declines [10]. 3. Top Ten Fund Holdings in the Transportation Sector - The top ten fund holdings include SF Holding, YTO Express, Huaxia Airlines, and China Merchants Energy, with notable increases in holdings for YTO Express and China Merchants Energy [15]. - Stocks with total holdings exceeding 300 million yuan and growth rates above 10% include YTO Express and China Merchants Energy, with growth rates of 110% and 227% respectively [15]. 4. Valuation of Key Companies in the Transportation Sector - Key companies such as China National Aviation and SF Holding have been evaluated with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential growth [19].

Core Viewpoint - The increase in global oil supply and sanctions have led to a surge in demand for "unaffected" tankers, resulting in the highest tanker earnings since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 1: Oil Tanker Earnings - The daily rental rate for tankers transporting 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Middle East to China has risen by 40% to $125,000, marking the highest level since April 2020 [1] - The Baltic Exchange reports that this increase is driven by the need for alternative sources due to recent U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Lars Barstad, CEO of Frontline, noted that sanctioned crude oil transportation is hindered, leading to longer waiting times for vessels [1] - There has been an increase in shipping volume from the Atlantic Basin to Asia, contributing to a rise in ton-miles [1] - More OPEC crude oil is entering the market, further influencing tanker demand [1] Group 3: Related Stocks - Relevant stocks in the tanker industry include Frontline, Teekay, Teekay Tankers, CMB.Tech, Scorpio Tankers, DHT Holdings, Tsakos Energy Navigation, Navios Maritime Holdings, International Seaways, Nordic American Tankers, and SFL Corp [1]

Summary of Conference Call on VLCC Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market dynamics, particularly in the context of the Chinese National Day holiday and its impact on demand and pricing [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The demand vacuum created by the Chinese National Day holiday led to a significant drop in VLCC rates, from 80,000 points to around 56,000 points, followed by a rebound [2][3]. - The demand recovery is expected as the holiday season ends and the fourth quarter peak season approaches, with an anticipated gradual increase in demand [4][5]. - The average shipping distance has increased by over 20% due to geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has raised the utilization of VLCCs [2][7]. Supply Side Factors - The supply side has seen a reduction of approximately 50% in Middle Eastern spot cargoes, easing supply pressure and potentially supporting price rebounds [5]. - The VLCC order book is historically low, with only 12.5% of the fleet on order, insufficient to offset market capacity [6][20]. - Environmental regulations, such as the IMO's CII policy and the European carbon tax, are expected to further constrain effective capacity and reduce efficiency [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price adjustments are characterized as technical and seasonal, not indicative of a systemic downturn in the VLCC market [6][9]. - The market is expected to maintain structural support due to rigid supply constraints and increasing demand from long-haul routes [6][14]. - The VLCC market is projected to remain resilient despite global economic slowdowns, driven by supply-side constraints and increasing ton-mile demand [8][9]. Geopolitical and Regulatory Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions are expected to tighten compliance-driven capacity, pushing up VLCC rates [16][18]. - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions and related policies could lead to a rebalancing of the VLCC market, with potential increases in operational costs for non-compliant vessels [16][17]. Price Projections - For Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, average rates for the TD3C route (Persian Gulf to China) are expected to range between $65,000 and $70,000, with potential upward adjustments due to regulatory impacts [21][22]. - The market is anticipated to remain above historical averages, with a strong bottom due to extreme capacity constraints [22][23]. Additional Important Insights - The structural changes in the VLCC market are characterized by a shift in supply focus from the Middle East to the Americas, with new supply expected to increase by over 1 million barrels per day by 2026 [14][15]. - The aging fleet, with 40% of vessels over 15 years old, poses a risk to operational efficiency and compliance, potentially leading to further market tightening [17][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the VLCC market, highlighting the interplay of demand, supply, geopolitical factors, and future pricing expectations.