Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The U.S. military's raid on Venezuela is expected to boost oil shipping demand. Since December 2025, the U.S. has expanded sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, limiting oil exports. Following the raid on January 3, 2026, it was announced that Venezuela may transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., potentially easing sanctions and increasing compliant market shipping volumes [7] - Short-term oil exports from Venezuela may remain constrained, but long-term legalization could enhance compliant market shipping demand. Venezuela's oil production is projected to account for about 1% of global output by 2025, with oil shipping exports making up around 2% of global exports. Currently, 17% of these exports go to the U.S., with over 50% shipped to Asia via shadow fleets [7] - The tightening of sanctions since 2025 has improved oil shipping supply and demand dynamics. The U.S. has intensified sanctions on Iranian shadow fleets, increasing the proportion of sanctioned VLCCs from 8% to 17%. This is expected to further reduce Iranian oil export efficiency, while OPEC+ production increases may help balance the market [7] - Oil shipping rates are anticipated to rise significantly in 2025 due to ongoing crude oil production increases and continued sanctions on shadow fleets. The oil shipping market is expected to recover, with potential for better-than-expected conditions in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026, not rated) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872, not rated) [7]

中金发布研报称，近日，美国总统发布行政命令，对印度因持续购买俄罗斯石油征收额外25%关税，此 举将使印度对美国的进口总关税提升到50%。如果后续印度降低俄罗斯原油进口量，并增加对中东、美 洲、西非等地区进口，有利于VLCC合规市场运输需求，此外长航线货量增加亦有利于增加海运需求。 标的方面，油运板块估值偏低，板块内公司上有弹性，下有股息支撑，建议关注左侧机会；集运板块重 视高股息标的配置价值；干散货近期运价强劲，关注后续需求端改善催化。 今年4月份以来OPEC+持续增产，但海运出口量没有同步增长(5月、7月出口减少)，由于夏季是中东及 欧美的用油旺季，叠加近期为国内季节性淡季，出口量及运价保持偏低水平。根据Vortexa数据，2024 年OPEC+8国9月-11月出口量持续增加，待三季度末中东用油旺季结束后，OPEC+增产或有望带动海运 出口量增加，叠加北半球四季度油品需求旺季，运价弹性有望显现。 估值与建议 油运板块估值偏低，板块内公司上有弹性，下有股息支撑，建议关注左侧机会，看好供需边际改善的旺 季弹性，看好中远海能（600026）(01138)、招商轮船（601872）(601872.SH)，关注招商南 ...