信达证券近日发布航运港口2025年9月专题：2025年10月8日，波罗的海原油航运运费指 数BDTI收于1078点，同比增长5.27%，环比2025年10月1日下滑2.36%，2025年10月1日， TD3C、TD25、TD22航线TCE分别收于7.29、3.75、6.25万美元/日，同比增速分别为 115.05%、106.35%、67.01%，环比2025年9月24日增速分别为-20.62%、11.3%、-14.66%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要: 一、综述：全国进出口总额及货物吞吐量情况 油运运价：2025年10月8日，波罗的海原油航运运费指数BDTI收于1078点，同比增长 5.27%，环比2025年10月1日下滑2.36%，2025年10月1日，TD3C、TD25、TD22航线TCE分 别收于7.29、3.75、6.25万美元/日，同比增速分别为115.05%、106.35%、67.01%，环比2025 年9月24日增速分别为-20.62%、11.3%、-14.66%。 货物吞吐量：2025年1～8月，全国沿海主要港口货物吞吐量实现76.88亿吨，同比增长 3.1%，全国沿海主要港口外贸货物 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 国庆中秋假期出行有望迎来景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 9 月 22 日-2025 年 9 月 28 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）"通达兔"快递企业宣布上调上海市电商快递价格，全国快递涨价区域已达 93%。 根据东方网， 9 月 22 日极兔、中通、圆通、申通、韵达宣布上调上海地区快递收 件价格，电商件单票价格上涨 0.2-0. ...

Group 1 - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) opened over 3% higher, currently up 3.09% at HKD 9.34, with a trading volume of HKD 4.0722 million [1] - On September 22, Zhongyuan Shipping indicated a significant increase in tanker freight rates, positively impacting the fleet earnings of global tanker owners [1] - The company's VLCC fleet is mostly in spot operation, benefiting from the current market conditions [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan considers Zhongyuan Shipping as China's largest tanker operator and a global leader in crude oil, refined oil, and LNG transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under China COSCO Group, providing downside protection in a volatile freight market due to its scale, newer vessel age structure, and increasing LNG business [1] - Huayuan Securities reported that VLCC TD3C TCE reached USD 96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, maintaining high levels thereafter, marking the best September VLCC freight rates since 1990 [1] Group 3 - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle East cargoes expected for October shipments [1] - The available VLCC capacity in the next 30 days is projected to reach the lowest level in the past year, suggesting potential further increases in VLCC freight rates, possibly surpassing the September high since 1990 [1]

Group 1 - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) opened over 3% higher, currently up 3.09% at HKD 9.34, with a trading volume of HKD 4.0722 million [1] - On September 22, during the 2025 semi-annual performance briefing, COSCO Shipping Energy announced a significant increase in tanker freight rates, positively impacting the fleet earnings of global tanker owners [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that COSCO Shipping Energy is the largest tanker operator in China and a leading global transporter of crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), benefiting from a diversified fleet and a relatively new fleet age structure [1] Group 2 - The VLCC TD3C TCE reached USD 96,000 per day on September 16, 2025, maintaining a high level in the following days, marking the best September VLCC freight rate since 1990 [1] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, potentially leading to further increases in VLCC freight rates [1] - The available VLCC capacity in the next 30 days is projected to reach the lowest level in the past year, suggesting that VLCC freight rates may rise further, potentially surpassing the September freight rate peak since 1990 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 12, while giving a "Neutral" rating for its A-share (600026.SH) with a target price of RMB 13 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Energy is the largest oil tanker operator in China and a leading global player in crude oil, refined oil, and LNG transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under China Merchants Group's energy transportation division, providing it with a competitive edge in a volatile freight market [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by freight recovery, structural supply-demand catalysts, and cautious fleet expansion [1] - Revenue CAGR is projected at approximately 8% from 2025 to 2027, supporting an improvement in profit margins, with net profit margin increasing from 19% in 2025 to 21% in 2027 [2] Group 3: Fleet and Debt Management - The fleet is anticipated to grow from 246 vessels in 2024 to 290 vessels by 2027, positioning the company to capitalize on the next upward cycle [2] - Net debt ratio is expected to rise from about 52% in 2025 to approximately 67% in 2027, but strong operating cash flow and asset backing will keep leverage manageable [2] - LNG revenue is projected to increase its share to around 13% by 2027, enhancing revenue visibility [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (600026) with an "Overweight" rating for Hong Kong stocks and a target price of HKD 12, while assigning a "Neutral" rating for A-shares with a target price of RMB 13 [1] Company Overview - China Merchants Energy Shipping is the largest oil tanker operator in China and a leading global player in crude oil, refined oil, and LNG transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under China Merchants Group's energy transportation division, providing it with a competitive edge in a volatile freight market [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by freight recovery, structural supply-demand catalysts, and cautious fleet expansion [1] - Revenue CAGR is projected at approximately 8% from 2025 to 2027, supporting an improvement in profit margins, with net profit margin increasing from 19% in 2025 to 21% in 2027 [1] Fleet Expansion - The fleet is anticipated to grow from 246 vessels in 2024 to 290 vessels by 2027, positioning the company to capitalize on the next upward cycle in the market [1] Debt and Cash Flow - The net debt ratio is expected to rise from about 52% in 2025 to approximately 67% in 2027; however, strong operating cash flow and asset backing will keep leverage manageable [1] - LNG revenue is projected to increase its share to around 13% by 2027, enhancing revenue visibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on COSCO Shipping Energy, assigning an "Overweight" rating for H-shares with a target price of HKD 12 and a "Neutral" rating for A-shares with a target price of CNY 13 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy is the largest oil tanker operator in China and one of the leading companies globally in crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under the energy transportation segment of China COSCO Shipping Group [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The scale, relatively new fleet age structure, and increasing LNG business provide the company with downside protection in a volatile freight market [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a prolonged upcycle over the years [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% for the company's net profit from 2025 to 2027, supported by freight recovery, structural supply-demand catalysts, and cautious fleet expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.04% and a current price of 11.98 CNY per share, reflecting a total market capitalization of 57.154 billion CNY [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Cosco achieved a revenue of 11.642 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 28.28% to 1.869 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 14.462 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.437 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 7.95% to 116,500, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 5.18%, with a recent 5-day decline of 2.60%, a 20-day increase of 11.13%, and a 60-day increase of 18.61% [1]. Ownership Structure - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 91.6484 million shares, an increase of 18.3201 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other significant shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, with holdings of 24.9615 million and 17.6686 million shares, respectively, both showing increases [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1147 points in the week from September 15th to 18th, up 4.65% week-on-week (with an expanding increase) and 29.16% year-on-year (with an expanding increase) [2]. - As of the week of September 12th, the shipping volume showed "one increase and three decreases." The US increased by 44.7%, Russia decreased by 11.72%, Saudi Arabia decreased by 10.7%, and the UAE decreased by 1.65% [2]. - As of September 17th, the number of crude oil tankers in the Red Sea/Aden Gulf region increased significantly [2]. - Last week, the US crude oil shipping volume continued to increase significantly week-on-week, driving up the demand for VLCC tankers, offsetting the negative impact of the week-on-week decline in the Middle East's crude oil shipping volume, and the BDTI freight rate index continued to rise [2]. - Important events to watch: Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [2]. Group 2: BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of September 18, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1147 points, up 4.65% week-on-week and 29.16% year-on-year [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate continued to rise this week, and the gap with the same period in 2024 widened [2]. Group 3: Tanker Voyage Distance - In the 35th week of 2025 (as of September 5th), except for the Aframax tankers whose voyage distance narrowed week-on-week, the voyage distances of VLCC and Suezmax tankers both lengthened week-on-week, with the VLCC tanker's voyage distance lengthening by more than 15% [5]. - From September 13th to 17th, 2025, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased significantly. The average number of tanker passages in the Red Sea was 817, an increase of 61 from the previous week, including an increase of 3 in the number of crude oil tankers and 52 in the number of product tankers [6]. - In terms of the tanker passage in the Aden Gulf, the tanker traffic increased this week. The tanker traffic in the Aden Gulf was 145, an increase of 11 from the previous week, including an increase of 12 in the number of crude oil tankers and 7 in the number of product tankers [6]. Group 4: Tanker Capacity - As of September 12, 2025, 9434 tankers were dismantled, an increase of 4 week-on-week and 87 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18364, an increase of 12 week-on-week and 465 year-on-year; the vessel delivery volume was 211, an increase of 2 week-on-week and 97 year-on-year; the vessel orders were 1325, an increase of 8 week-on-week and 41 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 221, a decrease of 4 week-on-week and an increase of 73 year-on-year [8]. - As of September 13th, the port capacity of VLCC and Aframax tankers decreased week-on-week, while the capacity of Suezmax tankers increased significantly week-on-week. Specifically, the number of VLCC tankers docked was 2224, a decrease of 35 week-on-week; the number of Aframax tankers docked was 2908, a decrease of 46 week-on-week; the number of Suezmax tankers docked was 3069, a significant increase of 873 week-on-week [8]. Group 5: Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, except for the US where the crude oil shipping volume continued to increase week-on-week, the crude oil shipping volumes of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE continued to decrease week-on-week [11]. - In terms of shipping vessel types, the US crude oil shipping volume rebounded significantly week-on-week. The demand for VLCC and Aframax tankers continued to rebound significantly week-on-week [11]. - Russia's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased week-on-week [11]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. Except for the rebound in the demand for VLCC tankers, the demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers decreased significantly week-on-week [11]. - The UAE's crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax and Suezmax tankers rebounded significantly week-on-week [12]. - From a seasonal perspective, the demand for Aframax tankers fluctuated the most this week, with the demand rebounding above the seasonal level [14]. - The total crude oil shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased slightly this week, mainly due to the week-on-week rebound in the crude oil shipping volumes of Kuwait and Iraq [28]. Group 6: Crude Oil Arrival - In the current week, the crude oil arrival volumes in China, India, and the Netherlands decreased week-on-week, falling to the lowest levels in previous years [29].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation (招商南油) has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.11% on September 18, 2023, amid significant trading activity and net outflows of capital [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 18, 2023, the stock price is reported at 3.25 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 15.606 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 3.83%, while it has decreased by 2.11% over the last five trading days, increased by 11.68% over the last 20 days, and increased by 9.80% over the last 60 days [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (top trading list) three times this year, with the latest occurrence on September 8, 2023, where it recorded a net buy of 102 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, established on September 8, 1993, and listed on January 8, 2019, is primarily engaged in coastal and international oil transportation [2]. - The revenue composition of the company includes: refined oil transportation (57.92%), crude oil transportation (28.82%), chemical transportation (7.20%), ethylene transportation (3.07%), crew leasing (2.28%), and other services (0.67%) [2]. - As of August 31, 2023, the number of shareholders is reported at 141,600, a decrease of 4.11% from the previous period, with an average of 33,902 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.28% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.772 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 21.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 53.28% year-on-year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 64.1352 million shares, a decrease of 7.0947 million shares from the previous period [2].