航运中期策略：关税政策影响持续，布局大宗增产周期 20250710 摘要 集运行业过去五年经历两轮超高景气，受益于疫情和红海冲突，显著提 升了集运公司盈利能力和股东回报，并推动新一轮下单潮，加速欧美干 线船舶大型化，影响结构性供给。 关税政策在 2025 年上半年对集装箱运输出口产业链产生显著影响，预 计持续。全球原油和矿山增产周期将使油运和干散货运输需求端受益， 孕育投资机会。 2020-2022 年集运货量超预期增长，源于疫情下的宅经济、财政刺激 及供应链紊乱。2024 年初红海冲突导致欧线绕行，全行业有效运力消 耗 10%，推高运价。 2025 年下半年，集运行业运力缺口将被新船交付填补。中国出口受关 税摩擦影响，美线出口缩减，东南亚转口规模有限，中国制造业优势短 期内难以替代。 油运及干散货行业受益于全球增产周期，海运贸易需求增加。原油运输 行业在 2022-2025 上半年景气上升，但 2024 年下半年经历压力测试， 2025 年初合规市场供需结构有所恢复。 Q&A 干散货海运市场 2023-2024 年景气温和上升，吨海里需求增长 12%， 船队规模增长 6%，产能利用率提高。2025 年海运量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Both China Shipbuilding (SH600150) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (SH601989) are expected to report significant year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with China Shipbuilding's profit scale projected to be higher than that of China State Shipbuilding, while the latter's growth rate is anticipated to be faster [1][8]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - China Shipbuilding anticipates a net profit of between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.25% to 119.49% [8]. - China State Shipbuilding expects a net profit of between 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 181.73% to 238.08% [8]. Group 2: Reasons for Profit Growth - The profit growth for China Shipbuilding is attributed to increased prices and quantities of delivered civil ships, along with effective cost control [8]. - China State Shipbuilding's profit increase is due to its ability to leverage the shipbuilding industry's development trends, enhance efficiency, and significantly increase the number of civil ship deliveries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Moves - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a positive development trend, with both companies optimizing their order structures and improving operational performance [9]. - China Shipbuilding is set to absorb high-quality assets from China State Shipbuilding, aiming to become the largest and most technologically advanced shipbuilding company in China [10]. - The company plans to enhance its deep-sea technology capabilities, which are expected to create new demands in exploration, communication, equipment, materials, and services [11]. Group 4: Future Goals - China Shipbuilding aims to achieve an operating revenue of 80.5 billion yuan in 2025, with specific targets including the completion of 89 civil ships and 270 repair ships [11]. - The company is focusing on high-demand ship types such as large LNG carriers and VLCCs, while also enhancing its capabilities in deep-sea equipment development [11].

板块周涨跌情况： 过去5个交易日，上证指数涨跌幅为+1.40%，深证成指涨跌幅为+1.25%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为+1.54%，创业 板指涨跌幅为+1.50%。中信交通运输板块涨跌幅为-0.3%，涨跌幅位居所有板块第27位。过去5个交易日，交 通运输行业子板块以上涨为主。涨跌幅前三位的子板块为：航运（+1.91%），港口（+0.83%），公路 （+0.70%）。涨跌幅后三位的子板块为：航空（-2.74%），快递（-1.37%），铁路（-0.93%）。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘政治事件扰动剧烈，25H1油运运价宽幅震荡 2025H1，地缘政治事件扰动运价，1月美国对俄油轮实施大规模制裁，造成短期运价跳涨，而制裁带来的原油 合规运输需求提升使25Q1运价维持高位运行。Q2以来全球原油需求预 ...

作为参考，克拉克森的数据显示，目前一艘13000/14000TEU传统燃料集装箱船新造船价格约为1.51亿美 元，与去年同期持平。 今年年初，HD现代三湖确定的全年接单目标为45亿美元。截至目前，HD现代三湖今年以来承接的新船 订单金额已达到全年接单目标的约76.7%，而这仅仅用了不到100天的时间。 HD韩国造船海洋没有透露船东方面的具体信息，但据外媒消息，这份订单来自韩国长锦商船，新船将 由韩国最大海运公司HMM租赁。 7月8日，韩国HD现代集团造船业务控股公司HD韩国造船海洋宣布，与一家大洋洲地区船东签订了4艘 集装箱船建造合同。 这也是HD现代三湖今年以来承接的第三批集装箱船订单，从而使其今年承接的集装箱船订单达到了10 艘。4月28日，HD韩国造船海洋宣布与希腊船王Evangelos Marinakis旗下的核心航运公司Capital Maritime签订了4艘8400TEU集装箱船的建造合同，合同总金额5.6亿美元（约合40.4亿元人民币），相 当于单船造价1.4亿美元，将在HD现代三湖建造，计划在2028年6月底之前陆续交付。5月30日，HD韩 国造船海洋宣布，与签订了2艘8400TEU集装箱船 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

6月底，印度国有企业马扎冈造船厂（MDL）宣布以5296万美元收购斯里兰卡最大造船厂——科伦坡造 船厂51%的控股权，交易主要通过购买日本尾道造船原持股份及认购新股份实现。这是印度大型造船企 业的首次跨国收购，标志着印度造船业国际化迈出关键一步。 虽然印度不断彰显成为造船大国的决心，但本土造船业仍处于起步阶段，2024年，印度造船业占全球订 单的份额不到0.2%，印度现有最大国产油轮载重仅9.3万吨，距离15万吨以上超大型油轮（VLCC）的建 造能力尚有不小差距，短期内海运对外依赖难以根本扭转。实现"2047愿景"还需克服造船业基础薄弱、 大型商用船舶建造能力不足，缺乏足够自主需求、难以形成规模等难题。 科伦坡造船厂成立于1974年，位于科伦坡港内，作为斯里兰卡最大且历史最悠久的造船与船舶维修企 业，拥有4座干船坞，具备最大可处理12.5万吨级船舶的能力。近年来的财务困境使其陷入危机，长期 面临经营压力，2023年，该船厂亏损额达到3800万美元，创下历史之最，迫使原最大股东日本尾道造船 寻求退出，最终由印度马扎冈造船厂接手。 （文章来源：经济日报） 近期，印度政府宣布计划在2040年前斥资约100亿美元，购 ...

Group 1 - The company, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., plans to issue A-shares to specific investors in 2025, subject to approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2][3] - The total number of shares to be issued will not exceed 1,431,232,918 shares, with the final number to be determined based on subscription conditions and regulatory approvals [1][2] - The company aims to raise funds primarily for the construction of six Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), two LNG carriers, and three Aframax oil tankers [2][3] Group 2 - The company will initially invest its own funds in the projects until the raised funds are available, and any shortfall in the net amount raised will be covered by the company's own or self-raised funds [2][3] - The company has committed to ensuring that the issuance does not dilute the immediate returns for existing shareholders, with measures in place to address any potential dilution [2][3] - The company’s major shareholders include China Ocean Shipping Group, which holds 46.45% of the shares, making it the indirect controlling shareholder [6][7] Group 3 - The global oil transportation industry is expected to maintain growth, driven by increasing demand in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for over 50% of global oil imports [12][13] - The company operates primarily in the maritime transportation of liquid bulk hazardous goods, including crude oil, refined oil, LNG, LPG, and chemicals [6][11] - The international maritime industry is regulated by various organizations, including the International Maritime Organization, which sets standards for safety and environmental protection [8][9]

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 07 月 05 日 船舶吸收合并重工获批船价企稳推 荐船舶板块，关注港股租赁公司 看好 ——申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20250629-20250704) 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch. ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 航运日报 2025 年 07 月 02 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 1,883.5 | -21.4 | -1.12% | 44,193.0 | -35.80% | 36,335.0 | -10.23% | | EC2510 | 1,367.9 | -15.9 | -1.15% | 14,562.0 | -32.79% | 31,302.0 | -0.65% | | EC2512 | 1,528.0 | -10.0 | -0.65% | 2,984.0 | -14.03% | ...

行 业 及 产 业 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsr ...