证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递反内卷趋势延续，油运运价创新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 11 月 17 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）10 月快递行业数据发布，行业件量同比增长 7.9%，通达系各家件量增速分化， 单票收入环比均持续改善，反内卷成效显著。2025 年 10 月，我国快递业务量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中远海能's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05% and a year-to-date increase of 9.13% [1] Company Overview - 中远海能, established on July 26, 1996, and listed on May 23, 2002, is based in Shanghai and primarily engages in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - The company's revenue composition includes: 44.88% from foreign trade crude oil, 13.64% from domestic crude oil, 10.69% from LNG transportation, 9.88% from foreign trade refined oil, 9.49% from domestic refined oil, and smaller percentages from other services [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, 中远海能 reported a revenue of 171.08 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.23 billion yuan, down 20.27% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 144.62 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 44.37 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, 中远海能 had 82,400 shareholders, a decrease of 29.24% from the previous period [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable reductions in their holdings [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates initially declined but then increased, with a divergence in container shipping rates on long-distance routes. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rose to 2231.96 points, up 9.5% from November 6 [2][13] - Volant Aviation completed a multi-hundred million yuan Series B financing round, and the C919 aircraft made its debut at the Dubai Airshow [2][15] - Jitu Express reported over 100 million packages on "Double Eleven," marking a 9% year-on-year increase, with an average daily package volume of 94.59 million during the peak season [2][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates fluctuated, with the CTFI at 2231.96 points, a 9.5% increase from November 6. The VLCC market is optimistic about future rates due to tight vessel availability [2][13] - Volant Aviation's Series B financing was led by Huaying Capital, with existing shareholders also increasing their investments. The C919 aircraft is set to showcase its capabilities at the 2025 Dubai Airshow [2][15] - Jitu Express achieved a record-breaking package volume during "Double Eleven," with a total of 1.3938 billion packages collected nationwide from October 21 to November 11, reflecting a 17.8% increase in daily average volume [2][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was 5356.00 points, down 2.5% year-on-year [27][28] - Domestic freight flights increased by 0.32% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 11.12% [28] - The SCFI index reported a decrease of 2.92% week-on-week, while the CCFI index increased by 3.39% week-on-week [35] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing industrial products export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [4] - Investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, with a recommendation for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Recommendations for highway and railway sectors, including Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation market is experiencing mixed signals, with concerns over supply surplus increasing, while OPEC+ has agreed to slightly raise oil production in December and pause increases for Q1 of next year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) shares have dropped over 5%, currently trading at 10.45 HKD with a transaction volume of 453 million HKD [1] - Analysts indicate that the VLCC TCE has surged to over 120,000 USD, benefiting from the recent sanctions against Russian oil [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The oil transportation sector is expected to see significant year-on-year profit growth in Q3 2025, aligning with the upward trend in freight rates [1] - Domestic oil tanker companies are outperforming the industry freight rate index, with projections indicating that profits for oil tankers in Q4 2025 and for the entire year will reach a ten-year high [1] - The outlook for oil transportation in 2026 remains positive, with expectations of continued improvement in supply and demand, potentially leading to a super bull market in the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil transportation market is experiencing mixed signals, with concerns over supply surplus leading to OPEC+ agreeing to a slight increase in oil production for December while pausing production increases for Q1 of next year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Ocean Shipping Company (中远海能) shares have dropped over 5%, currently trading at HKD 10.45 with a transaction volume of HKD 453 million [1] - Analysts indicate that the recent pause in 301 measures will effectively mitigate the risk of continued reduction in effective capacity for crude oil transportation [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The VLCC TCE has surged to over USD 120,000 due to increased sanctions against Russian oil, indicating a positive trend for oil transportation profitability [1] - It is projected that international crude oil transportation profits will see a significant year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, aligning with freight rate trends, and domestic tanker companies are outperforming the industry freight index [1] - Expectations for Q4 2025 and the entire year indicate that tanker profits will reach a ten-year high, with a favorable supply-demand outlook for oil transportation in 2026, suggesting a potential super bull market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation (招商南油) has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.15% on November 4, 2023, reflecting a total market capitalization of 15.27 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 947 million yuan, down 42.81% compared to the previous year [2]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 1.60%, with a 0.63% decline over the last five trading days, a 4.26% increase over the last 20 days, and an 11.97% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 4.83% to 121,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.08% to 39,508 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 84.7742 million shares, an increase of 20.639 million shares from the previous period [2]. Business Overview - The company, established in September 1993 and listed in January 2019, primarily engages in coastal and international oil transportation. Its revenue composition includes 57.92% from refined oil transport, 28.82% from crude oil transport, 7.20% from chemical transport, and smaller percentages from other services [2]. - The company operates within the transportation industry, specifically in the shipping sector, and is associated with concepts such as low pricing, port transportation, state-owned enterprise reform, and the Belt and Road Initiative [2].

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and a mixed performance in financial metrics, indicating potential challenges in the shipping and energy transportation sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, COSCO Shipping Energy reported a revenue of 17.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.723 billion yuan, down 20.27% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 14.462 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.437 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 3, the stock price of COSCO Shipping Energy fell by 2.00%, trading at 13.22 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 72.25 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.07%, with a 9.44% rise over the last five trading days and a 31.28% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 29.24% to 82,400, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable reductions in their holdings [3]. Business Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy specializes in the transportation of crude oil and refined oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its revenue composition being 44.88% from foreign trade crude oil, 13.64% from domestic crude oil, and 10.69% from LNG transportation [1]. - The company operates within the transportation sector, specifically in shipping and port operations, and is involved in various related concepts such as ocean transportation and oil and gas storage [2].

Summary of the Conference Call for 招商南油 Industry Overview - The international refined oil tanker market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation due to multiple factors, including geopolitical risks and regulatory changes, which have increased market volatility [2][5] - The U.S. 301 investigation is gradually causing Chinese shipping companies to exit the U.S. market [2] - Despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in refined oil shipping trade volume in the first half of the year, the MR market showed resilience in Q3, driven by strong gasoline demand in Asia-Pacific and the U.S. West Coast, along with a significant increase in China's export volume [2][5] - The VLCC and refined oil tanker markets have seen an upward trend since August, benefiting from increased refinery exports and delayed maintenance in Middle Eastern refineries [2][6] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 招商南油 reported revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 947 million yuan, down 42.87% year-on-year [3] - Q3 revenue was 1.497 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 13.47% to 377 million yuan [3] - The gross profit from crude oil transportation increased by 6.9% to 513 million yuan, while the gross profit from refined oil transportation decreased by 48.5% to 575 million yuan [3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The refined oil shipping market is expected to maintain a steady performance in Q4, supported by seasonal demand in the U.S. and increased exports from China [8] - The VLCC market's soaring freight rates are expected to drive up the refined oil tanker market [9] - For 2026, a slight growth in refined oil trade demand is anticipated, but increased new capacity and aging fleets may lead to higher scrapping rates [11] Operational Efficiency - The company's refined oil team operates at a significantly higher efficiency than market levels, outperforming regional indices and achieving better operational results [4][12] - The company has a fleet of 303 vessels and has successfully capitalized on market opportunities through scaled operations [12] Shareholder Returns and Financial Strategy - The company plans to utilize capital reserves to offset previous losses, aiming for improved shareholder returns through share buybacks and future profit distributions [13][14] - A total of 250 million yuan has been allocated for share repurchases, with plans to increase this to 400 million yuan [13] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns and maintaining stable profitability and cash flow [15] Recommendations for Investors - Investors are encouraged to monitor the company's operational performance and improvements in shareholder returns, as it is positioned as a key player in the shipping sector [17]

Core Points - The stock price of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation (招商南油) decreased by 2.15% on October 23, trading at 3.19 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 15.318 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 1.92%, with a 1.59% rise over the last five trading days, a 3.92% decline over the last 20 days, and a 10.38% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The company has been featured on the "龙虎榜" three times this year, with the most recent instance on September 8, where it recorded a net buy of 102 million CNY [1] Company Overview - China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, established on September 8, 1993, and listed on January 8, 2019, is based in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and specializes in coastal and international oil transportation [2] - The company's revenue composition includes: refined oil transportation (57.92%), crude oil transportation (28.82%), chemical transportation (7.20%), ethylene transportation (3.07%), crew leasing (2.28%), and other services (0.67%) [2] - As of September 30, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.83% to 127,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 10.91% to 37,599 shares [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.772 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 21.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 53.28% year-on-year [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 64.1352 million shares, a decrease of 70.9247 million shares from the previous period [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation (招商南油) has shown a mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with a slight increase in price and notable trading volume, indicating active market interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 20, the stock price of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation rose by 2.22% to 3.23 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 279 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.83%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 15.51 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 3.19%, with a 0.62% rise over the last five trading days, a 1.52% decline over the last 20 days, and a 13.33% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a trading board for stocks with significant trading activity) three times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 8, where it recorded a net purchase of 102 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, established on September 8, 1993, and listed on January 8, 2019, is based in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and primarily engages in oil transportation along coastal and international routes [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes: 57.92% from refined oil transportation, 28.82% from crude oil transportation, 7.20% from chemical transportation, 3.07% from ethylene transportation, 2.28% from crew leasing, and 0.67% from other services [2]. - As of September 30, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.83% to 127,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 10.91% to 37,599 shares [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.772 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 53.28% year-on-year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 64.1352 million shares, a decrease of 7.0947 million shares from the previous period [2].