Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching 50,725 tons, the highest level since 2013, indicating a sharp change in spot demand in Asia, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea [4][12]. Group 1: Cancellation of Warehouse Receipts - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is primarily driven by two factors: increased actual demand from downstream manufacturing and traders' expectations of rising copper prices, leading them to withdraw from the exchange inventory system [4][6]. - The cancellation ratio for copper has surged to over 35%, significantly higher than the historical average of 12-15%, reflecting a structural shift in global copper trade [14][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Influences - The article identifies five typical market scenarios that influence copper prices, emphasizing the critical role of cancellation ratios in price movements [7][8][9][10][11]. - Current macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks, have increased their explanatory power for price fluctuations to 65%, compared to a historical average of 40% [12]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Future copper supply is expected to face three main constraints: declining resource quality, lagging capital expenditures, and increased geopolitical risk premiums [30]. - The article suggests establishing a multi-dimensional monitoring system focusing on the marginal changes in LME cancellation ratios, inventory turnover rates, and macroeconomic sentiment indicators to better navigate the volatile copper market [31].