热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 封帆 策略摘要 氧化铝：供应过剩的局面始终未改，前期盘面价格大幅度贴水现货，刺激仓单消化，但随着月底盘面价 格拉涨后，卖交割利润重新显现将会减少仓单风险。当前氧化铝市场格局集中度已经较高，在供应端不 出现实质性供给收缩的情况下，价格缺乏持续上涨动力，且当前电解铝厂原材料储备充足，后期冬储预 期不足，绝对价格上涨后，常规现货采购招标存在暂停取消的情况。海外矿端供应方面过剩预期不减， 随着几内亚公投结束以及Axis矿的复产，几内亚风险度下调，矿端价格虽开始接近几内亚边际最高成 本，但仍有小幅下滑空间。进入新一个合同月，氧化铝长单均价已经降至边际生产最高现金成本，后期 关注矿价下调幅度以及国内冶炼减产的博弈。虽然基本面微观数据难有好转，库存持续增加，但需要警 惕在有色商品受宏观因素主导持续走强的背景下，氧化铝盘面价格是否会受到情绪的带动。 电解铝：供需矛盾变化并不大，高频数据呈现出消费从旺季向淡季转变的表现，下游加工产品开工率及 产量环比开始回落，铝锭社会库存开始累库，且由于绝对价格受宏观因素主导大幅度拉涨而压制下游采 购积极性，现货贴水持续 ...

12月30日，2025年，加密货币市场正处于一个关键的十字路口，关于"四年周期"是否失效的争论已白热 化。FXGT 认为，随着比特币从边缘资产向全球宏观避险资产演变，其运行逻辑已经发生了本质性的范 式转移。传统的减半效应虽然在心理层面依然存在，但其对市场供需关系的绝对统治力正逐渐被更复杂 的宏观金融变量所稀释。 宏观政策的松绑与全球流动性的扩张正成为行情的新引擎。Grayscale 的数据显示，由于法定货币贬值 压力持续，比特币的宏观避险属性日益凸显。当渣打银行等传统金融巨头开始修正其 2026 年的盈利预 期并弃用周期模型时，这标志着市场正从"减半驱动"转向"宏观驱动"。在这种背景下，比特币的走势将 更多地受制于利率决策和全球信用周期的波动。 在对市场资金流向的深度剖析中，FXGT 发现，机构化进程是打破周期的首要推手。正如 Ruck 等分析 师所表示，现货 ETF 带来的持续性买盘为市场提供了深厚的流动性垫层，这种结构性资金注入与以往 散户主导的"暴涨暴跌"截然不同。这种变化不仅减弱了峰值后的回撤幅度，也让原本清晰的周期边界变 得模糊。 宏观政策的松绑与全球流动性的扩张正成为行情的新引擎。Grayscal ...

晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比显著回升，其中澳巴发运均显著回升。从季节性规律以及今年 主流矿山发运目标来看，年底主流矿山存在阶段性冲量，发运量会出现环比回升。从到港两量方 面来看，短期保持中位偏高水平，供给端支撑力度偏弱。 负责人：赵 毅 需求方面：国内需求持续加速下滑，需求减弱幅度超预期，从当前减产力度以及复产计划来 看，铁水量或接近最低水平。主要原因环保限产和年度检修共同作用，本期日均铁水 226.55 万吨， 环比下降 2.65 万吨，铁水绝对水平持续低于去年同期。据 Mysteel 调研，本期高检修主要发生在 河北、江苏、山东、新、安徽等地区，河北地区主要因环保限产加剧，钢厂检修增加，其余地区 多为年度检修；高炉复产发生在辽宁、山西、福建、安徽地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，按计 划复产；本周铁水下降主要条自上周检修的高炉延续影响量，同时河北个别钢厂因环保限产而减 产，同时该地区高炉复产计划延期，也是铁水下降幅度超预期的主要原因。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 铁矿石： 宏观驱动减弱 关注补库需求 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：0 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 美联储降息落地 宏观驱动减弱 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比小幅回升，其中澳洲小幅回升，巴西发运显著回落，非主流 矿发运大幅增加。从季节性规律以及今年主流矿山发运目标来看，外矿供给高峰期或已过，后 期供给压力或环比回落。 需求方面：国内需求加速回落，主要原因是终端需求不足，钢厂年度检修增加，需求季节 性回落以及高炉盈利率处于三年同期低位，偏弱现实将限制价格上方高度。据 Mysteel 调研显示 本期新增 12 座高炉检修，6 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要发生在新疆、山西、江苏、四川、湖南、 湖北等地区，主要因为下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检修，检修时长多在 20 天以上，个别高炉 检修时长在 100 天以上；高炉复产发生在河北、东北地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，下游需 求尚可，按计划复产。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，本期小幅回升，高价格抑制了补库需求，主要 采购港口现货的钢厂库存增量较为明显，后期关注钢厂后期美元货补库何时全面启动；港口库 存持续累积，主要原因到 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求加速回落 关注宏观驱动 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 需求方面：国内需求加速回落，主要原因是终端需求不足，钢厂年度检修增加，需求季节性 回落以及高炉盈利率处于三年同期低位，偏弱现实将限制价格上方高度。据 Mysteel 调研显示本 期新增 12 座高炉检修，6 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要发生在新疆、山西、江苏、四川、湖南、湖 北等地区，主要因为下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检修，检修时长多在 20 天以上，个别高炉检修 时长在 100 天以上:高炉复产发生在河北、东北地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，下游需求尚可， 按计划复产。 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，本期小幅回升，高价 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching 50,725 tons, the highest level since 2013, indicating a sharp change in spot demand in Asia, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea [4][12]. Group 1: Cancellation of Warehouse Receipts - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is primarily driven by two factors: increased actual demand from downstream manufacturing and traders' expectations of rising copper prices, leading them to withdraw from the exchange inventory system [4][6]. - The cancellation ratio for copper has surged to over 35%, significantly higher than the historical average of 12-15%, reflecting a structural shift in global copper trade [14][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Influences - The article identifies five typical market scenarios that influence copper prices, emphasizing the critical role of cancellation ratios in price movements [7][8][9][10][11]. - Current macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks, have increased their explanatory power for price fluctuations to 65%, compared to a historical average of 40% [12]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Future copper supply is expected to face three main constraints: declining resource quality, lagging capital expenditures, and increased geopolitical risk premiums [30]. - The article suggests establishing a multi-dimensional monitoring system focusing on the marginal changes in LME cancellation ratios, inventory turnover rates, and macroeconomic sentiment indicators to better navigate the volatile copper market [31].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 价格高位震荡 关注宏观驱动 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：昨日黑色系延续窄幅震荡，成材价格难以突破上行对铁矿石形成抑制，突破上方价 格仍需宏观增量加持。近期铁矿石盘面价格相对强势，港口现货价格基本持平，基差继续收缩， 主要由盘面向现货回归。现货能维持高位主要原因是成材库存持续去化，市场对淡季负反馈预 期减弱，国内铁水季节性下滑但下降斜率尚未超预期，另一方面现货贸易限制对中低品价格形 成支撑，普氏价格在淡季不降反升，对盘面价格形成带动。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运周度环比升，其中澳洲小幅回升，巴西发运回升显著。从季节性规律 以及今年主流矿山发运目标来看，外矿供给高峰期或已过，后期供给压力或环比回落。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求延续环比回落走势，需求季节性回落以及高炉盈利率大幅下滑，将限 制价格上方高度。据我的钢铁网调研，本期新增 10 座高炉检修，3 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要 发生在南方地区，主要因亏损范围扩大叠加需求走弱，对高炉进行年检，除个 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has significantly increased. This week enters the macro window period, and it is expected that the weight of macro drivers will increase [3]. - The improvement of the domestic finished product inventory structure, the relatively low decline rate of iron ore demand, and the restrictions on port spot trading jointly push up the spot price. The basis of the futures contract is reverting from the futures to the spot. Later, attention should be paid to the pressure on inventory depletion brought by the increase in rebar production [3]. - Throughout the year, both from the perspective of the weak industrial reality and seasonal patterns, molten iron production will show a downward trend, and the inventory will generally tend to accumulate. In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has increased compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has slightly recovered, and the shipment from Brazil has recovered significantly. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, the peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease later [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continues to decline month - on - month. The seasonal decline in demand and the significant decline in the blast furnace profitability rate will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel's survey, 10 new blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance this period, and 3 blast furnaces were restarted. Blast furnace maintenance mainly occurred in the southern region due to the expansion of losses and weakening demand. Blast furnace restarts occurred in Hebei and Jiangsu after the end of maintenance. As raw material prices rise, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past three years [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a relatively low level. High prices have suppressed the restocking demand. Later, attention should be paid to when the steel mills will fully start restocking. Port inventory has started to accumulate again, mainly because the arrival volume has increased month - on - month. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 765 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Adopt range - bound operation and sell call options [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelter processing fee continues to be low. Although the import volume from Myanmar has rebounded, the improvement in supply is limited. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low - buying strategy can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow the macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes and rises, and the futures price fluctuates. There is an arbitrage window. The supply and demand in the industrial silicon market decreased in November, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon industry cuts production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, the demand is weak, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops significantly, and the arbitrage window closes. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation in each link. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support and the inventory pressure [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and the copper price fluctuates weakly. The macro situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The downstream psychological price ceiling for copper is rising, and the spot maintains a premium. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom of the copper price. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is basically in a loose pattern, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export window is open, which may boost the domestic zinc price. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, showing a low - level shock. The spot market has regional differentiation. The price of electrolytic aluminum is affected by macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It may fluctuate between the two in the short term, and there is a risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts with the aluminum price. The cost is strongly supported, but the supply is restricted by raw material shortages. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is in a weak shock. The macro - drive and demand are insufficient, and the supply pressure remains. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to the steel mill's production cut and the nickel - iron price [15]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. The macro - expectation improves, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The nickel supply is loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 116000 - 122000. Pay attention to the macro - expectation and the Indonesian industrial policy [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market runs strongly. Driven by news and fundamentals, the price rises. The supply increases slightly, the demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market may have more games. Be cautious about chasing high prices without positions, and wait for a pull - back [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased by 0.75%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 671.90%. The import loss decreased by 1.62%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was stable [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, and 2602 - 2603 decreased, while that of 2603 - 2604 increased significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09%. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon products is stable, and the premium of Tongmei decreased by 12.50%. The basis of some products changed [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 and 2601 - 2602 increased, while others changed to different extents [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in October, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops by 1390 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage window closes [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed, with the largest change in the current - month to the first - continuous contract [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [6]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products decreased, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by 6.23%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2511 - 2512 and 2601 - 2602 changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62%, and the import volume in September increased by 26.50%. The inventory of some ports and the electrolytic copper rod's operating rate changed [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85%, and the inventory of LME and domestic zinc ingots changed [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The alumina production in October increased by 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and LME changed [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap spread of some products decreased [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in October decreased by 2.42%, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel in some regions changed, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.14%. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore changed [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, and the import and export volumes and the inventory changed [15]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel products decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased slightly. The import loss increased [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed slightly [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The inventory of SHFE, social inventory, and LME increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and other lithium products increased, and the lithium concentrate price also increased [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73%, and the inventory decreased [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]