Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental support for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the macro - driving factors next week [1] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The center of the Shanghai copper futures market has moved up, the sentiment of spot trading has weakened, and the premium is under pressure [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation this week is limited [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week increased by $0.82 per ton week - on - week to - $42.63 per ton, still negative [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports this week decreased by 169,700 tons week - on - week to 560,900 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to continue to rise [20] - There is an import inversion of copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week this week, while the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and with the upward movement of the Shanghai copper center, new orders and提货量 decreased. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [27] - From July 1st to 20th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 23% year - on - year and decreased by 12% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in July decreased month - on - month, and the overall production plan for August has limited month - on - month change [33] - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the production plan for household air conditioners in August is 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [35] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December [40] - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [42]