地缘风险反复，铂钯延续上行 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年2⽉3⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价599. 85元/克，涨幅6.73%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为461元/克，涨幅 6.29%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-05 铂观点：地缘风险扰动叠加宏观预期向好，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据央视网2月4日报道，美军在阿拉伯海附近击落一架伊朗无人 机，地缘风险再度升温，市场避险情绪受到提振，带动铂价延续反弹走 势。此外，美国对铂钯加征关税，以及西方可能对俄罗斯产铂族金属实施 新一轮制裁的预期仍在持续，短期内铂价或将维持震荡偏强格局，投资者 可关注择机低吸布局机会。需要注意的是，当前市场整体波动率仍处于较 高水平，建议投资者谨慎操作，合理控制仓位。展望未来，供给方面，南 非作为全球铂族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风 险。需求方面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求 保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同 时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观 ...

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, CU2603, rose rapidly from 103,000 yuan to around 109,000 yuan starting at 10:15 and broke through the 1.1 million - yuan mark in the afternoon, with a daily increase of nearly 8% [2] - Copper is a core raw material for the new - energy revolution, power - grid upgrading, and AI data centers, and its inclusion in key mineral or strategic reserve lists by the US, EU, and China provides strong support for copper prices [2] - The Fed's decision to maintain the federal funds rate and Chairman Powell's remarks led to a rise in London spot gold and silver, and copper prices followed to reach new highs [4] - Expectations of interest - rate cuts and tariffs in 2026 are the core macro - drivers for the upward movement of copper prices [4] 3) Summary of Relevant Content Market Performance - The main contract of Shanghai copper futures, CU2603, had a significant increase on January 29, 2026, with a daily increase approaching 8% [2] - London spot gold and silver rose rapidly after the Fed's decision, and copper prices followed to reach new highs [4] Fundamental Factors - Copper is a key raw material for multiple important fields and is included in key mineral or strategic reserve lists, which supports copper prices [2] Macroeconomic Factors - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75% on January 29, 2026, and Chairman Powell's remarks affected market pricing [4] - Expectations of interest - rate cuts and tariffs in 2026 are driving copper prices up [4] Inventory Changes - LME copper European inventory decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 13,850 tons [4] - COMEX copper inventory increased from less than 100,000 short tons in April 2025 to 572,300 short tons [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, CU2603, rapidly rose from 103,000 yuan to around 109,000 yuan starting at 10:15 and broke through the 110,000 yuan mark in the afternoon, with a daily increase of nearly 8% [2] - Copper is the core raw material for the new - energy revolution, power grid upgrade, and AI data centers, and is included in the key mineral or strategic reserve lists of the US, the EU, and China, and its security demand strongly supports copper prices [2] - On the early morning of January 29, the Fed announced to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Powell's remarks triggered a re - pricing of inflation structural pressure and policy independence, causing London spot gold and silver to rise rapidly and copper prices to reach new highs [4] - The expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs in 2026 have become the core macro - driving forces for the upward movement of copper prices. The LME copper inventory in Europe has continuously decreased from nearly 70,000 tons since April 2025 to 13,850 tons, while the COMEX copper inventory has continuously increased from less than 100,000 short tons since April 2025 to 572,300 short tons [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Movement of Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper futures, CU2603, rose rapidly from 103,000 yuan to around 109,000 yuan starting at 10:15 on January 29, 2026, and broke through 110,000 yuan in the afternoon, with a daily increase of nearly 8% [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Copper is a key raw material for new - energy, power grid, and AI, and its security demand supports prices [2] - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and Powell's remarks led to price increases in gold, silver, and copper [4] - The expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs in 2026, along with changes in LME and COMEX copper inventories, drive copper prices upward [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensities [2][34][73]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The prices of domestic and international gold showed an upward trend, and the trading volume and positions had certain changes. Trump's speech and related events had an impact on the market. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Subject to tariff expectation fluctuations. The prices had minor changes, and the market was affected by Trump's remarks and geopolitical events. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Traded in a high - level range. The prices and trading data had specific changes, and the trend intensity is 0 [30]. - **Palladium**: Faced upward pressure due to the callback of gold and silver. The prices and related data showed certain characteristics, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The risk sentiment slightly recovered, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international copper, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had changes. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment of the State Grid and other events affected the market. The trend intensity is 0 [10]. - **Zinc**: Had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Trump's speech. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supported the price. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was influenced by Trump's remarks. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed certain characteristics. The trend intensity is - 1 [20]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy had changes. The market was affected by various factors, and the trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 1, 0, and 1 respectively [24]. - **Nickel**: The repeated remarks from Indonesia disturbed the sentiment, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by Indonesian policies. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [34]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The price was affected by the tense situation in Iran and the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, showing an upward trend [72]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by both macro and micro factors, they oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by coal price trends and steel production. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 [58]. - **Power Coal**: The market sentiment was weak, and the price had a short - term weak adjustment. The prices showed a downward trend, and the market was affected by production and import data. The trend intensity is not clearly stated [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, it oscillated strongly in the short term. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by production and demand expectations. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Oil**: Due to the lack of themes in US soybeans, the rebound height was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 1 [154]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight rise of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal might follow the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by US - China relations and South American harvest progress. The trend intensity is 1 [159]. - **Soybean**: The market atmosphere improved, and the price might oscillate. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot price trends. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Mainly showed a weak operation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by production and import data at home and abroad. The trend intensity is - 1 [166]. - **Cotton**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by spot trading and cotton textile enterprise conditions. The trend intensity is 1 [170]. - **Egg**: The sentiment weakened. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had specific changes. The trend intensity is 0 [176]. - **Live Pig**: The spot price weakened, and the peak - season expectation decreased. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes. The trend intensity is - 2 [179]. - **Peanut**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes. The trend intensity is 0 [183]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: The tense situation in Iran and the rebound of oil prices supported the PX valuation. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing margin. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The downward space was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [69]. - **Rubber**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by inventory and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: With the stabilization of butadiene, the price rebounded. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by butadiene prices and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The import in December exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation was loose. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production ratio remained low, and the profit repair was limited. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is - 1 [84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price still faced pressure. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [86]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [91]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [96]. - **Methanol**: Oscillated. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Urea**: Oscillated and had support at the lower level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [104]. - **Styrene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by export and supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is - 1 [109]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supported by the heating demand, the price was firm. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and international prices. The trend intensity is 1 [112]. - **Propylene**: The spot market maintained a tight balance. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics. The trend intensity is 0 [112]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Oscillated weakly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and cost factors. The trend intensity is - 1 [119]. - **Fuel Oil**: Remained strong in the short term, and the fluctuation continued to increase. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Followed the upward trend mainly, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and oil price trends. The trend intensity is 1 [122]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It was in a temporary oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical situations, and export policies. The trend intensity is 0 [124]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: It was in a short - term oscillating market, and the processing margin was at a low level. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It was in a short - term oscillating market. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data had corresponding changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [142]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and raw material prices. The trend intensity is 0 [145]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillated strongly. The prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data showed specific changes, and the market was affected by supply - demand dynamics and benzene - related events. The trend intensity is 0 [150].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Due to supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum and palladium prices are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum prices to continue their moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity. Overall, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. - Palladium: Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages support prices. The price is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and the price bottom has certain support with the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase [2]. - **Logic**: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are intensifying, and factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market influencers. In the short term, platinum prices may continue their moderately strong and volatile trend, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities. In the future, South African supply faces power and weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is expanding [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately strong and volatile. With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. Palladium - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - **Logic**: The market's previous expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium from the US did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's report on Russian - imported palladium is still pending, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium prices may remain in a wide - range volatile pattern, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure [4]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Short - term spot shortages support palladium prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, weak fundamentals and low investment attributes will suppress prices [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: On January 21, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2427.72 (+0.56%), 2790.52 (+0.61%), and 2316.66 (+0.35%) respectively [50]. - **Plate Index**: On January 21, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2810.63, with a daily increase of 0.61%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.54%, a 1 - month increase of 8.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.64% [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, the supply side has risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate strongly [3]. - Palladium: Tariff expectations and rising geopolitical risks will cause palladium to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price, and the palladium price has a certain bottom support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Market Situation**: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 619.35 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 0.43% [2]. - **Main Logic**: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are heating up, and the EU may counter Trump's tariff threat. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are also key factors. In the future, South Africa still has power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side, and on the demand side, the automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive, so the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Palladium - **Market Situation**: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 490 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 1.97% [2]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium in the US was not fulfilled, and the price corrected. The US investigation report on Russian palladium has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, the spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle provides bottom support [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term spot shortage supports the palladium price, but in the medium - and long - term, it is restricted by weak fundamentals and low investment attributes, so the palladium price is expected to fluctuate [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34% [50]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 20, 2026, was 2793.66, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 2.04%, a 1 - month increase of 8.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.01% [52].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Fluctuations in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: LME spot prices strengthen, and the price remains firm [2]. - Zinc: Range - bound trading [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Range - bound trading [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias; Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Box - shaped oscillation; Palladium: Following the range - bound trading [2]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia disrupt sentiment, and nickel prices fluctuate widely; Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions at the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2]. Summary by Related Categories Gold and Silver 1. Price and Trading Volume - Gold prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52% and a night - session closing price of 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver prices also declined during the day and rose at night. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1, while the holdings of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 180. Gold and silver inventories showed different trends, with Comex gold inventories decreasing by 80,956 ounces and Shanghai silver inventories increasing by 9703 kilograms [4]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Gold and silver spreads and exchange rates changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged, and the US dollar index rose by 0.28% [4]. Copper 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 101680 with a 0.49% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased, while the open interest of the London copper 3M electronic trading decreased slightly [8]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 7,762 tons, and London copper inventories increased by 3,850 tons. The LME copper premium widened, and the spot - to - futures spread and other spreads also changed [8]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic report shows that high - tech manufacturing leads, and GDP growth reaches the target. Trump's remarks on Greenland and related tariff threats, as well as Chile's Codelco's plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine [8][10]. Zinc 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24450 with a daily decline of 1.21%, and the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic trading was 3207.5 with a 3.20% decline. Trading volume decreased significantly, and open interest showed different trends [11]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc increased, the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased, and zinc inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc inventories increasing by 224 tons and London zinc inventories decreasing by 1475 tons [11]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic achievements and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's tariff threats on European countries [12]. Lead 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17185 with a daily decline of 1.66%, and the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic trading was 2037.5 with a 2.81% decline. Trading volume and open interest decreased [15]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and overseas lead inventories decreased by 2850 tons, which supported prices [15]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic data and Trump's remarks on Greenland and tariff threats [16]. Tin 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 389,500 with a daily decline of 3.88% and a night - session closing price of 397,040 with a 2.58% increase. The trading volume and open interest decreased [19]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 141 tons, and London tin inventories increased by 505 tons. The LME tin premium increased, and the spot - to - futures spread also changed [19]. 3. News - Germany restarts electric vehicle purchase subsidies, the EU holds an emergency summit to address Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate takes measures to maintain economic and financial security [19][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 1. Price and Trading Volume - Aluminum prices oscillated with a bullish bias. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24090, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Alumina prices continued to bottom - out, and the trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased significantly. The price of cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [23]. 2. Inventory and Premium - Aluminum inventories showed different trends, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventories increasing by 1.50 tons. The premium and spread of aluminum and alumina also changed [23]. 3. News - High - level political events such as the Japanese House of Representatives election and the release of the Fed's meeting minutes [25]. Platinum and Palladium 1. Price and Trading Volume - Platinum and palladium prices showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 615.10 with a 0.83% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased [28]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs decreased. NYMEX platinum inventories increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventories decreased by 3,888 ounces [28]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Platinum and palladium spreads and exchange rates changed. The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel 1. Price and Trading Volume - Nickel prices fluctuated widely. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 142,320. Stainless steel prices also changed, with the closing price of the stainless steel main contract being 14,305. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends [32]. 2. Industry Chain Data - The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and other products in the nickel industry chain changed, and the prices of stainless steel products also showed different trends [32]. 3. News - Indonesia's policies on nickel, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula, and adjusting production targets [32][33][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption and escalating geopolitical risks have caused platinum and palladium prices to continue to fluctuate. The short - term platinum price is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term outlook of being oscillatingly stronger. The short - term palladium price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the long - term price will oscillate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 615.1 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 0.48% [2]. - The recent floods in northern South Africa are expected to impact mine production, logistics, and supply stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions have also intensified. The nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, South Africa still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity. The long - term outlook is oscillatingly stronger [2][3]. Palladium - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 477.95 yuan/gram, with an increase of 0.64% [2]. - The market's previous expectation of a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10 did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's investigation report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support the price. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price. The long - term outlook is oscillating [2][4]. Commodity Index - On January 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was not detailed. The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 19, 2026, was 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decline of - 0.36%, a 1 - month increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [52].

Group 1: Lithium Market - Lithium battery demand remains strong despite the off-season, with a reversal in supply and demand for lithium carbonate, leading to an upward price trend [4] - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate rose by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton [4] - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate rose by 1.94% to 146,200 CNY/ton, although there was a limit down on Friday due to increased regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by speculative funds [4] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices may experience high volatility in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME copper down by 0.50% [2] - Significant inventory increases were noted, with LME copper inventory rising by 3.31% to 144,000 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory up by 17.20% to 321,000 tons [2] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, indicating a potential demand recovery [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are expected to face high volatility due to inventory accumulation, with domestic aluminum inventory increasing by 29.24% to 185,900 tons [3] - The price of alumina fell by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices rose by 0.83% to 24,200 CNY/ton [3] - The demand for aluminum may increase due to the "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the home appliance sector, driven by high copper prices [3] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The cobalt raw material supply remains tight, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising, as MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may affect the timing of raw material availability in the domestic market [5] - The structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, supporting upward price momentum [5]