Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Oils**: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - **Meal Products**: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - **PR and PF**: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - As the traditional peak season nears its end, the industry's terminal demand support is expected to weaken further. Future market price increases will rely more on policies and the macro - level. It is necessary to continue to monitor the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy fronts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel and Related Products 3.1.1 Steel - Core logic: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations persists, cost - side support is loosening, and the futures market is weak. Spot market transactions are generally weak, with low speculative interest. Iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, electric - furnace profits are poor, and steel mills are conducting some maintenance and production conversions. After the National Day holiday, demand recovery is limited. With high supply, the inventory of five major steel products has increased significantly, and the fundamentals are weak [6]. - Outlook: Steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals are lackluster. Considering increased overseas risks, short - term futures prices are expected to face pressure. However, due to potential positive signals from the end - of - October meeting and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in costs under high iron - water production, the downside space is limited [6]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Spot market prices have fallen significantly. Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased significantly. The demand - side iron - water production is still at a high level, and some steel mills plan to replenish inventory after the holiday. Port inventory has increased, and overall inventory pressure is not prominent [6]. - Outlook: There is still support for the rigid demand for iron ore, short - term supply is generally stable, and fundamental pressure is not significant. However, macro - level disturbances and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations limit the upside space, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered this week, approaching the same - period level in previous years. Demand has decreased as finished - product prices are under pressure and electric - furnace profits are poor. Inventory has decreased slightly during the holiday [8]. - Outlook: With insufficient fundamental drivers, scrap - steel prices are expected to follow finished - product prices in the short term [8]. 3.2 Carbon - Related Products 3.2.1 Coke - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. On the spot side, supply is temporarily stable, demand is supported by iron - water production, and overall inventory is at a low level. The price of coke is in a stalemate between rising and falling due to the game between coking plants and steel mills [9]. - Outlook: With rigid demand support, limited supply growth, and a healthy short - term fundamental situation, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the future [9]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. Supply is generally stable, but imports are affected by some factors. Demand is supported by coke production, and inventory is at a low level. Spot prices are oscillating steadily [10]. - Outlook: After coal mines return to pre - holiday production levels, there is limited room for output growth. Import recovery will take time, and with high short - term coke production, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Considering the warm macro - environment, prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.3 Other Products 3.3.1 Glass - Core logic: With the approaching of important domestic meetings, the supply side has limited changes. Demand is in the peak season, but due to large intermediate - level inventory and limited restocking ability, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The upstream is facing pressure to increase inventory and reduce prices [11]. - Outlook: After the National Day holiday, production and sales are poor, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to decline [11]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - Core logic: Supply is still high, and demand is stable with some differences between heavy and light soda ash. The industry is in a bottom - clearing stage, and upstream inventory is expected to increase. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. Prices are expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [13]. 3.3.3 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand peak season is lackluster, and the manganese - silicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and the market is waiting and watching. Cost - side prices have slightly declined, demand is resilient, but supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing [14]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations, the price center may decline after the peak season [14]. 3.3.4 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand in the peak season is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and market confidence is low. Supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing. Demand from steel mills is resilient, but the metal - magnesium market is oversupplied [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, prices may decline after the peak season [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariff expectations, the prices of most black building materials varieties fluctuated weakly during the day. The panic in the market was relatively limited due to the uncertainty of tariff increases and the weaker intensity compared to April. The prices continued to fluctuate weakly at night. In mid - October, the terminal demand of the industry remained poor, and the reduction of hot metal production limited the support for prices. In the fourth quarter, the influence of macro and policy factors increased, and attention should be paid to the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy levels [1] - The current fundamental situation can hardly provide clear upward support for the prices of the sector's varieties. The tariff issue drags down the market sentiment and slightly affects the price performance of the sector. However, there are still expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and positive signals from domestic important meetings [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Analysis - **Iron Element**: Iron ore demand is supported at a high level, supply is expected to be stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has insufficient fundamental drivers and is expected to follow the price of finished products [2] - **Carbon Element**: Coke has rigid demand support from hot metal, and its price is expected to remain stable. Coking coal's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and its price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Alloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported in the short term but have downward pressure after the peak season [2] - **Others**: Glass may have a rebound space if post - holiday production and sales are good; otherwise, the price may be under pressure. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus pattern and is expected to oscillate widely [2][5] 2. Individual Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory is at a moderately high level, the fundamentals are weak, and the overseas risks are increasing. The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited upside space [7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental drivers are insufficient, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [9] - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable [10] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Glass**: If the post - holiday production and sales are good, there is a rebound space; otherwise, the price may decline. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction [11][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [16] 3. Other Data - **Commodity Index**: On October 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index changed by +0.01%, +0.17%, and - 0.64% respectively [100] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On October 13, 2025, the steel industry chain index had a daily decline of - 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of +0.07%, a 1 - month decline of - 0.83%, and a decline of - 5.54% since the beginning of the year [102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) experienced a decline of over 6%, specifically a drop of 6.15%, trading at HKD 34.18 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 1.313 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares fell over 6%, closing at HKD 34.18 with a trading volume of HKD 1.313 billion, influenced by renewed US tariff threats on Chinese goods [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On October 10, Trump announced that the US would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on key software [1] - Following this announcement, both domestic and international copper prices experienced significant declines, with Shanghai copper dropping by 4.5% and LME copper also down by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Hualian Futures suggests that copper, as an essential raw material for the new economy, will continue to see strong market demand, driving long-term price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that while they remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, short-term price increases are limited to USD 11,000 per ton due to an oversupply in the market [1]

Group 1 - Despite record high gold and silver prices, India's gold and silver imports surged nearly twofold in September compared to August, as banks and jewelers stockpiled inventory ahead of traditional festivals like Diwali in October to avoid potential higher import taxes [1][3] - As the world's second-largest consumer of precious metals, India's import growth has provided strong support for the rising international gold prices, with customs experiencing an unprecedented surge in imports [3][4] - In August, India imported 64.17 tons of gold (valued at $5.4 billion) and 410.8 tons of silver (valued at $45.16 million), while gold futures reached a record price of 116,900 rupees per 10 grams and silver futures hit 144,330 rupees per kilogram by September 30 [4] Group 2 - The strong buying activity in India at historically high prices has surprised the market, especially in stark contrast to the subdued demand in China, where dealers are currently offering discounts of $31 to $71 per ounce, the highest levels seen in recent years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The recommended stance is to wait and see as the tariff expectation has been disproven, and the gold price is expected to continue to move sideways [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. The recommended stance is to be bullish in the short - term as the domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, and the copper price has stabilized and rebounded [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: After New York gold hit a high and then fell back last Friday, it maintained a weak trend on Monday, dropping from $3450 to the $3400 level. Shanghai gold and London gold also declined [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market previously expected the US to impose a tax on gold, but President Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. The short - term New York gold is still within the sideways range since the second quarter, and with the tariff expectation disproven, it is expected to continue its sideways and weakening movement [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Movement**: Shanghai copper maintained a strong performance yesterday with a slight increase in open interest; it opened slightly lower at night and then moved sideways with a slight decrease in open interest [4]. - **Macro - level Factors**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased, and the US dollar index remains weak, which is beneficial for the copper price. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [4]. - **Industry - level Factors**: On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last Thursday. With positive domestic and overseas macro factors, the copper price may maintain its strong performance [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to run strongly in the short - term due to rising US tariff expectations and technical price rebounds [1][3]. - Copper is seen as strong in the short - term. Although the US tariff on copper may cause price drops, domestic macro - expectations and industrial support could provide strong support [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan [3]. - **Driving Logic**: Market tariff expectations increased after July 9 (the end - date of the 90 - day tariff extension). US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025. Technically, the futures price stabilized and regained the $3300 level and the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: running strongly [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, Shanghai copper decreased with reduced positions, and the decline was mainly due to the expected 50% US tariff on copper [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1. Market concerns about the tariff implementation may lead to a closed US import window and increased supply in non - US regions. However, positive domestic macro - expectations, rising commodities and stocks, and strong industrial support could support Shanghai copper, and the LME import loss has rapidly narrowed [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: strong in the short - term [1][5].