有色金属日报 2026-1-6 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 国内节后归来铜价延续强势，昨日伦铜 3M 大涨 5.03%至 13087 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102650 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 ...

在OPEC+为夺回市场份额而提高产量、市场担忧供应将超过需求的背景下，原油价格仍迈向年度大幅 下跌。 WTI在年末的清淡交投中变动不大，收于接近每桶58美元。 阿联酋表示将从也门撤军，此前沙特要求阿联酋停止支持这个饱受战争蹂躏国家的武装团体。 美国总统特朗普推动的乌克兰和平计划遭遇新障碍，俄罗斯总统普京表示将改变谈判立场。 尽管存在这些风险，据三位代表称，随着全球石油供应过剩迹象日益明显，OPEC+本周末开会时预计 将维持原定的暂停增产计划。 油价企稳，交易员在从委内瑞拉、俄罗斯到也门的地缘政治紧张局势与全球供应过剩担忧之间权衡。铜 价录得2017年以来最长连涨，市场预计供应链可能将面临更多压力，这推动了12月的涨势。白银回升， 之前创下逾五年来最大单日跌幅，持续存在的供应短缺使其仍迈向约35%的月度涨幅。 原油：油价变动不大 地缘政治风险与供应过剩担忧拉锯 油价变动不大，交易员在从委内瑞拉、俄罗斯到也门的地缘政治紧张局势与全球供应过剩担忧之间权 衡。 WTI 2月期货小幅下跌13美分，结算价报每桶57.95美元。 截至收盘，LME期铜上涨2.75%，报12558.5美元/吨。 LME期铝上涨0.95%，报2 ...

在供应链压力加剧与关税预期的双重推动下，铜价正经历一场自2017年以来最长的连涨行情，不仅刷新了年末市场的交易热度，更奠定了该金属 十余年来最强劲的年度表现。 受此推动，铜价周一一度触及每吨近13000美元的历史高点。随后虽有回落，但在周二再度上涨2.2%至每吨12493美元，有望录得连续第10个交易 日上涨。尽管已处高位，市场做多情绪依然展现出显著韧性，投资者正通过抢先布局以应对未来可能出现的供应紧缩。 对于铜市场而言，美国进口关税的威胁已成为当前主要的驱动因素。看涨人士指出，为了规避潜在的关税壁垒，大量金属正被提前运往美国港 口。这种抢运潮不仅迫使买家支付更高的价格，更加剧了全球其他地区的供应紧张局面。 贸易商正密切关注这一物流动态。Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. 早在11月就曾发出警告，预测2026年世界其他地区将面临铜的"极端短缺"。这种由 于贸易政策预期引发的库存重新分配，正在重塑短期内的全球金属流动格局。 供应问题在2025年主导了整个金属板块的叙事。除了铜矿生产国遭遇的一系列事故外，其他工业金属也未能幸免。铝生产正面临中国供应限制和 能源成本高企的威胁，而锌矿的开采同样受到 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 上周宏观层面相对平静，欧美市场进入圣诞及新年假期，主要市场波澜不惊，但是铜价录得较大涨幅。市场对关税预期带来的物流重置、区 域错配等问题继续定价，并且对局部地区出现现货紧张甚至挤仓等因素表现出了更大的担忧，加之资金在其中的推波助澜，市场情绪显得较 为亢奋，同时也逼迫不少空头被迫平仓，共同将银价、铜价推高到了更高的水平。 核心观点 01 上周金铜强势，白银大幅上涨 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 4.42%，白银 上涨 18.22%；沪金2602合约 上涨 3.71%，沪银2602 合约上涨 1 9.14%。主要工业金 属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+6.71%、+5.95%。 铜价再创历史新高 0 2 上周宏观层面相对平静，欧美市场进入圣诞及新年假期，主要市场波澜不惊，但是铜价录得较大涨幅。市场对关税预期带来的物流重 置、区域错配等问题继续定价，并且对局部地区出现现货紧张甚至挤仓等因素表现出了更大的担忧，加之资金在其中的推波助澜，市场 情绪显得较为亢奋，同时也逼迫不少空头被迫平仓，共同将铜价推高到了更高的水平。 上周，海外 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching 50,725 tons, the highest level since 2013, indicating a sharp change in spot demand in Asia, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea [4][12]. Group 1: Cancellation of Warehouse Receipts - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is primarily driven by two factors: increased actual demand from downstream manufacturing and traders' expectations of rising copper prices, leading them to withdraw from the exchange inventory system [4][6]. - The cancellation ratio for copper has surged to over 35%, significantly higher than the historical average of 12-15%, reflecting a structural shift in global copper trade [14][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Influences - The article identifies five typical market scenarios that influence copper prices, emphasizing the critical role of cancellation ratios in price movements [7][8][9][10][11]. - Current macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical risks, have increased their explanatory power for price fluctuations to 65%, compared to a historical average of 40% [12]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Future Outlook - Future copper supply is expected to face three main constraints: declining resource quality, lagging capital expenditures, and increased geopolitical risk premiums [30]. - The article suggests establishing a multi-dimensional monitoring system focusing on the marginal changes in LME cancellation ratios, inventory turnover rates, and macroeconomic sentiment indicators to better navigate the volatile copper market [31].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts declining, particularly in the chemical sector where rubber fell by 1.58% [1] - Non-metallic building materials experienced a complete decline, with glass down by 1.47% [1] - Shipping futures also saw a decline, with the shipping index (European line) dropping by 1.45% [1] - Most energy products decreased, with fuel oil down by 0.45% [1] - Precious metals showed an upward trend, with silver rising by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures slightly decreased, following the trend of Dalian palm oil futures, with the benchmark February palm oil contract closing down by 3 ringgit, or 0.07%, at 4,156 ringgit per ton [14] - A recent survey indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six-and-a-half-year high due to declining exports and record production [14] - The Malaysian Federal Land Development Authority received orders to evacuate palm oil plantation lands, which may impact operations and national production [14] Group 3: Copper Market Developments - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.74% to 90,760 yuan per ton [15] - The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, surging by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, marking the largest increase by tonnage since 2013 [15] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that the Kamoa-Kakula project aims for copper production targets of 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 and 500,000 to 540,000 tons in 2027 [15] Group 4: Rebar Steel Market Outlook - Rebar prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation, with the RB2601 contract projected to rise to around 3,200 yuan [18] - The rebar market in December is relatively strong, supported by reduced production and inventory depletion, leading to shortages in some regions [18] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, construction activity in southern regions and rising winter storage expectations are expected to support rebar prices [18] Group 5: Logistics and Economic Indicators - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index for November was 50.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [19] - The business volume index also rose to 50.9%, indicating a balanced recovery across regions, with central and western regions exceeding the national level [19] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, further increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [20] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approaching 90% [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Oils**: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - **Meal Products**: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - **PR and PF**: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - As the traditional peak season nears its end, the industry's terminal demand support is expected to weaken further. Future market price increases will rely more on policies and the macro - level. It is necessary to continue to monitor the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy fronts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel and Related Products 3.1.1 Steel - Core logic: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations persists, cost - side support is loosening, and the futures market is weak. Spot market transactions are generally weak, with low speculative interest. Iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, electric - furnace profits are poor, and steel mills are conducting some maintenance and production conversions. After the National Day holiday, demand recovery is limited. With high supply, the inventory of five major steel products has increased significantly, and the fundamentals are weak [6]. - Outlook: Steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals are lackluster. Considering increased overseas risks, short - term futures prices are expected to face pressure. However, due to potential positive signals from the end - of - October meeting and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in costs under high iron - water production, the downside space is limited [6]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Spot market prices have fallen significantly. Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased significantly. The demand - side iron - water production is still at a high level, and some steel mills plan to replenish inventory after the holiday. Port inventory has increased, and overall inventory pressure is not prominent [6]. - Outlook: There is still support for the rigid demand for iron ore, short - term supply is generally stable, and fundamental pressure is not significant. However, macro - level disturbances and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations limit the upside space, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered this week, approaching the same - period level in previous years. Demand has decreased as finished - product prices are under pressure and electric - furnace profits are poor. Inventory has decreased slightly during the holiday [8]. - Outlook: With insufficient fundamental drivers, scrap - steel prices are expected to follow finished - product prices in the short term [8]. 3.2 Carbon - Related Products 3.2.1 Coke - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. On the spot side, supply is temporarily stable, demand is supported by iron - water production, and overall inventory is at a low level. The price of coke is in a stalemate between rising and falling due to the game between coking plants and steel mills [9]. - Outlook: With rigid demand support, limited supply growth, and a healthy short - term fundamental situation, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the future [9]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. Supply is generally stable, but imports are affected by some factors. Demand is supported by coke production, and inventory is at a low level. Spot prices are oscillating steadily [10]. - Outlook: After coal mines return to pre - holiday production levels, there is limited room for output growth. Import recovery will take time, and with high short - term coke production, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Considering the warm macro - environment, prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.3 Other Products 3.3.1 Glass - Core logic: With the approaching of important domestic meetings, the supply side has limited changes. Demand is in the peak season, but due to large intermediate - level inventory and limited restocking ability, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The upstream is facing pressure to increase inventory and reduce prices [11]. - Outlook: After the National Day holiday, production and sales are poor, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to decline [11]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - Core logic: Supply is still high, and demand is stable with some differences between heavy and light soda ash. The industry is in a bottom - clearing stage, and upstream inventory is expected to increase. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. Prices are expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [13]. 3.3.3 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand peak season is lackluster, and the manganese - silicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and the market is waiting and watching. Cost - side prices have slightly declined, demand is resilient, but supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing [14]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations, the price center may decline after the peak season [14]. 3.3.4 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand in the peak season is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and market confidence is low. Supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing. Demand from steel mills is resilient, but the metal - magnesium market is oversupplied [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, prices may decline after the peak season [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariff expectations, the prices of most black building materials varieties fluctuated weakly during the day. The panic in the market was relatively limited due to the uncertainty of tariff increases and the weaker intensity compared to April. The prices continued to fluctuate weakly at night. In mid - October, the terminal demand of the industry remained poor, and the reduction of hot metal production limited the support for prices. In the fourth quarter, the influence of macro and policy factors increased, and attention should be paid to the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy levels [1] - The current fundamental situation can hardly provide clear upward support for the prices of the sector's varieties. The tariff issue drags down the market sentiment and slightly affects the price performance of the sector. However, there are still expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and positive signals from domestic important meetings [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Analysis - **Iron Element**: Iron ore demand is supported at a high level, supply is expected to be stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has insufficient fundamental drivers and is expected to follow the price of finished products [2] - **Carbon Element**: Coke has rigid demand support from hot metal, and its price is expected to remain stable. Coking coal's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and its price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Alloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported in the short term but have downward pressure after the peak season [2] - **Others**: Glass may have a rebound space if post - holiday production and sales are good; otherwise, the price may be under pressure. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus pattern and is expected to oscillate widely [2][5] 2. Individual Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory is at a moderately high level, the fundamentals are weak, and the overseas risks are increasing. The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited upside space [7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental drivers are insufficient, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [9] - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable [10] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Glass**: If the post - holiday production and sales are good, there is a rebound space; otherwise, the price may decline. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction [11][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [16] 3. Other Data - **Commodity Index**: On October 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index changed by +0.01%, +0.17%, and - 0.64% respectively [100] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On October 13, 2025, the steel industry chain index had a daily decline of - 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of +0.07%, a 1 - month decline of - 0.83%, and a decline of - 5.54% since the beginning of the year [102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].