Core Insights - The flu season in China is expected to peak in late December and early January, leading to increased competition among flu medications [1][3] - Prices for flu medications, particularly for the popular drug Sufo, have started to drop as companies aim to capture market share [1][2] - The market for flu medications in China has surpassed 10 billion yuan, with Oseltamivir holding over 80% market share [4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Sufo, a drug from Roche, was initially priced at 498 yuan per box but has seen a significant reduction to 222.36 yuan after being included in the national medical insurance directory [3] - The supply of Sufo is currently stable, with prices ranging from 239 to 258 yuan in retail pharmacies [2] - The entry of multiple domestic flu medications is intensifying competition, with several new products expected to launch in 2025 [6][7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Traditional flu medications like Oseltamivir are facing price pressures due to increased competition and collective procurement policies, with prices dropping significantly [4][5] - The market is seeing a surge in domestic flu drugs, with several companies like Qingfeng Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical launching new products [6][8] - Oseltamivir's market share is projected to decline to 54.8% as more competitors enter the market, with over 70 companies producing the drug [5] Group 3: Regulatory and Development Updates - New flu medications are actively seeking inclusion in the medical insurance directory to enhance accessibility for patients [8] - Recent approvals for new flu drugs indicate a growing focus on pediatric formulations, with companies like Zhongsheng actively pursuing clinical trials for younger populations [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The flu season in China is expected to peak in mid to late December and early January, leading to increased competition among flu medication manufacturers as prices drop to capture market share [5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Some flu medications have seen price reductions on e-commerce platforms, with the price of 20mg of Isodax dropping from 320 yuan to 196 yuan since November 3 [6]. - The market for flu medications is becoming increasingly competitive, with several new domestic flu drugs set to launch in 2025, challenging the previously dominant "miracle drug" status of Sufuda [8][23]. - Sufuda, a product of Roche, was initially priced at 498 yuan per box before being included in the national medical insurance directory, which reduced its price to 222.36 yuan [14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Sufuda is currently in ample supply, with prices in physical pharmacies ranging from 239 yuan to 258 yuan per box, and no immediate price adjustments are anticipated [10]. - The demand for Sufuda remains high, with reports indicating that it sells out quickly during peak seasons [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Oseltamivir, a traditional flu antiviral, holds over 80% market share in China's flu medication market, with prices significantly reduced due to increased competition and centralized procurement [16][19]. - The lowest bid price for Oseltamivir capsules has dropped to less than 1 yuan per capsule, marking an 85% decrease from previous prices [21]. - New domestic flu drugs, such as Isodax and Anruwei, are entering the market, aiming to capture a share of the growing demand for flu treatments [24][30]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The National Medical Products Administration has accepted new drug applications for several flu medications, indicating a proactive approach by domestic companies to expand their product offerings [28]. - Companies are also working to include their products in the medical insurance directory to enhance accessibility for patients [30][31].