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继峰股份(603997):点评:格拉默盈利环比持续改善,扣非利润同环比较好增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-17 13:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 110 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 912.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.9% [2][5] - With the support of Grammer, the company is leveraging its production and R&D efficiency, along with high self-manufacturing rates, to rapidly penetrate major global automakers, resulting in a rich order backlog and promising profitability for its passenger car seat projects [2][11] - The overseas integration effects are gradually becoming evident, and improvements in overseas profitability are expected to bring significant profit elasticity in the future [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase driven by growth in downstream sales and the ramp-up of new domestic seat businesses [11] - Grammer's Q2 2025 revenue is projected at 470 million euros (approximately 3.35 billion yuan), with a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.3% [11] - The operating profit before interest and taxes for Grammer is expected to be 10 million euros (approximately 80 million yuan), with a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.6% [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 610 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25.9X, 15.3X, and 11.7X [11] - The company is also expanding into air conditioning vents and vehicle refrigerators, which have already secured multiple contracts, continuously opening up long-term growth opportunities [11]
继峰股份(603997):Q1海外整合效果显现,业绩拐点向上明确
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown signs of a performance turnaround in Q1 2025, with significant improvements in net profit and operational efficiency following overseas integration efforts [7] - The company reported a revenue of 50.37 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, but achieved a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 448% compared to the previous year [5][6] - The divestiture of TMD and restructuring in Europe have impacted the company's performance in 2024, leading to a net loss, but the first quarter of 2025 indicates a recovery trend [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company achieved total revenue of 222.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but reported a net loss of 5.67 billion yuan [5] - For 2025, the estimated total revenue is projected to be 24.58 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 626 million yuan, indicating a recovery from previous losses [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15% for the next few years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.9% in 2025 [6][9]