海外水泥国别研究系列 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | baoyanxin@gtht.com | S0880513070005 | | 申浩(分析师) | 021-23185636 | shenhao2@gtht.com | S0880525040041 | | 花健祎(分析师) | 0755-23976858 | huajianyi@gtht.com | S0880521010001 | | 冯晨阳(分析师) | 021-23183846 | fengchenyang@gtht.com | S0880525040020 | 本报告导读： 水泥出海国别研究之乌干达 [Table_Industry] 水泥制造业 本篇是海外水泥国别研究第八篇，详细阐述了乌干达经济发展概况、水泥供需情况、 竞争格局、盈利能力及趋势。 投资要点： 价格水平高但盈利不易，看好西部水泥乌干达项目。 增长的需求、短缺的熟料、良好的竞争格局、稳定的汇率带来了高 水平的价格（乌干达水泥出厂价 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a stable recovery in demand [1][2] - The year 2025 saw the CPI remain flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a low and moderate recovery in price levels [1][4] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods, with a notable increase in prices for communication tools, baby products, and entertainment durable goods, which rose between 1.4% and 3.0% [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of increase, influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics and ongoing capacity governance in key industries [2][3] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, reflecting positive changes in certain industries due to macroeconomic policies [3][5] - The PPI's year-on-year decline was initially exacerbated by insufficient external demand and structural adjustments, but improved market competition and policy effects led to a narrowing of the decline in the latter half of the year [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The changes in CPI and PPI in December 2025 indicate a stable and improving economic environment, with demand gradually recovering and supply-side structural optimization continuing [3][5] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and the deepening of the unified national market are expected to support a moderate and stable price environment moving forward [3][5] - Looking ahead to 2026, a more proactive macroeconomic policy is anticipated to foster economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with the potential for PPI to enter a recovery phase, although it may take time to turn positive [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The year 2025 saw the CPI remain flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a generally low and mild recovery in price levels [1][4] - The increase in CPI is attributed to rising prices of industrial consumer goods, with a notable increase in prices for communication tools, baby products, and entertainment durable goods, which rose between 1.4% and 3.0% [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of increase, despite a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [2][3] - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures and effective policies in key industries [3][5] - Prices in the coal mining and processing sectors, as well as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production, have shown consistent increases, indicating a positive trend in certain industries [2][3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the changes in CPI and PPI reflect a stable and improving economic environment in China, with demand gradually recovering and supply-side structural optimization continuing [3][5] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies and the deepening of the national unified market construction are expected to support a stable and mild recovery in prices moving forward [3][5] - Looking ahead to 2026, a more proactive macroeconomic policy environment is anticipated to foster economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with CPI expected to rise steadily [5]

CPI Analysis - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest growth since March 2023[2] - Food prices contributed significantly to CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - PPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and cement manufacturing saw price increases of 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively[2] Market Outlook - January CPI is expected to drop to around 0.4% year-on-year due to a high base effect from the previous year[2] - January PPI is projected to rise to approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year estimate of -1.2%[2] - The impact of low oil prices continues to weigh on PPI improvements, while rising prices in non-ferrous metals support certain sectors[2] Risks - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, posing risks to economic recovery[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the industrial producer price index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months as of December 2025, reflecting improvements in market competition and price adjustments in key industries [1][3] - In December 2025, the PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, with notable price increases in coal mining and processing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and cement manufacturing [1] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics across various sectors due to effective macroeconomic policies [3] Group 2 - The ongoing comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition is leading to a significant reduction in price declines in industries such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, while the demand for raw materials is increasing due to the green and intelligent transformation of industries [5] - There is a growing demand for high-quality consumer goods among residents, which is positively impacting the supply-demand situation in sectors like cultural, educational, and sports entertainment products, resulting in better price increases compared to previous years [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, marking the highest increase since August 2023[2] - The cumulative CPI for January to December 2025 was 0.0%, indicating a stagnation in price growth over the year[1] - The main drivers for the December CPI increase included rising vegetable and fruit prices due to adverse weather, consumer promotion policies boosting appliance and vehicle prices, and an increase in international gold prices[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.2% decline in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.6% for the year[1] - The December PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of rising prices[6] - Key factors contributing to the PPI changes included improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific increases of 3.7% and 2.8% in mining and refining respectively[7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 was characterized by weak demand and a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, leading to a continued decline in PPI[10] - Looking ahead to January 2026, the CPI is expected to drop to around 0.2% year-on-year due to a higher base effect from the previous year and seasonal price fluctuations[5] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a continued low inflation environment, with an expected annual CPI of approximately 0.4%[5]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.9% and rural areas by 0.6%, indicating a steady increase in consumer prices driven by food and non-food price changes [1][4][6]. CPI Summary - The CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [5]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [6]. - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables (18.2%) and fresh fruits (4.4%), contributing to the overall CPI increase [6][8]. - Energy prices decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, with gasoline prices dropping by 8.4% [6]. PPI Summary - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking three consecutive months of growth [8]. - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [9]. - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [8][9]. - Input factors like international commodity prices influenced the price trends in domestic industries, with non-ferrous metal prices rising due to global market conditions [8][9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Beiyuan Group's stock price decreased by 1.06% to 3.74 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 10.21 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.07%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 14.856 billion CNY [1] - Beiyuan Group, established on May 6, 2003, and listed on October 20, 2020, is located in the Jin Jie Industrial Park of Shenmu City, Yulin, Shaanxi Province, primarily engaged in the production and sales of polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda [1] - The revenue composition of Beiyuan Group is as follows: 90.88% from basic chemical raw materials manufacturing, 6.10% from cement manufacturing, and 1.56% from other supplementary sources [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Beiyuan Group, a fund under Penghua Fund ranks as a significant stakeholder, specifically the Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme ETF Link A (014942), which entered the top ten in the third quarter with 23.88 million shares, accounting for 0.6% of circulating shares [2] - The Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme ETF Link A (014942) was established on March 8, 2022, with a latest scale of 728.09 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 37.45% and a one-year return of 35.57%, ranking 1223 out of 4195 and 1152 out of 4179 respectively [2] - The fund manager of Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme ETF Link A is Yan Dong, who has a cumulative tenure of 6 years and 289 days, managing total fund assets of 22.118 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 456.3% and the worst being -42.8% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Huashu Co., Ltd. announced the convening of its sixth board meeting to discuss the proposal for the 2026 first extraordinary shareholders' meeting [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Huashu Co., Ltd. is as follows: 80.4% from basic chemical raw materials manufacturing, 10.18% from mining, 4.76% from other sectors, 4.51% from cement manufacturing, and 0.16% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Huashu Co., Ltd. is 8.9 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The company Wan Nian Qing (SZ 000789) held a temporary meeting of the 11th session of the 10th board of directors on December 8, 2025, to review the proposal for the absorption merger of its subsidiary [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was as follows: cement manufacturing accounted for 68.44%, concrete for 22.71%, aggregates for 5.43%, other industries for 2.25%, and trade for 1.17% [1] - As of the report date, Wan Nian Qing's market capitalization was 4.4 billion yuan [1]