海外流动性变局
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多资产周报:海外流动性变局下的市场波动-20251123
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-23 11:51
Economic Indicators - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000, reversing the previous month's decline of 4,000[1] - Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, above the expected 4.3%, complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year change is -1.70%[5] - Retail sales year-on-year change for the month is 2.90%[5] - Monthly export year-on-year change is -1.10%[5] - M2 money supply growth is 8.20%[5] Market Performance - Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.78%, Hang Seng Index down by 5.09%, and S&P 500 decreased by 1.95% during the week of November 15 to November 22[2] - 10-year Chinese bonds rose by 0.26 basis points, while 10-year U.S. bonds fell by 8 basis points[2] - U.S. dollar index increased by 0.88%, and offshore RMB depreciated by 0.08%[2] - Brent crude oil price is seeking support around $60 per barrel, reflecting cautious global demand expectations[12] Commodity and Inventory Trends - Latest crude oil inventory stands at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - Rebar inventory increased to 4.67 million tons, up by 40,000 tons[3] - Copper inventory rose to 109,690 tons, an increase of 14,656 tons[3] - Aluminum inventory increased to 620,000 tons, up by 20,000 tons[3] Investment Behavior - Latest week saw a rise in long positions for the U.S. dollar to 12,456 contracts, up by 2,730 contracts[3] - Short positions for the U.S. dollar increased to 25,601 contracts, up by 2,239 contracts[3] - Gold ETF holdings decreased to 33.45 million ounces, down by 110,000 ounces[3] Risk Factors - Risks include overseas market volatility and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]