Workflow
海外生柴需求
icon
Search documents
MPOB报告利多,棕油领涨油脂
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]