Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump criticized Brazil as a poor trade partner, citing high tariffs and unfavorable laws, while Brazilian President Lula refuted these claims, asserting Brazil's strength and independence in trade negotiations [1] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - President Trump described Brazil as a "terrible trade partner" due to excessive tariffs imposed on the U.S. [1] - Lula responded by stating that Brazil is not a bad trade partner and emphasized that Brazil will not yield to U.S. government pressure [1] Group 2: Political Statements - Trump's comments reflect a broader critique of Brazil's trade policies and legal framework [1] - Lula's rebuttal highlights Brazil's commitment to maintaining its sovereignty in trade matters [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - **Bean No.1**: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - **Hogs**: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - **Inter - variety**: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - **Eggs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - **Feed End**: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil continues to break through and rise. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. Hold long positions and consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The procurement and arrival of domestic rapeseed have decreased, and the inventory has declined from the high point but is still at a relatively high level. The preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the production in early August was poor. The increase in Indonesian export taxes in August may increase Malaysia's export share. Hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense, and there is a concern about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. Hold long positions for the 01 contract of soybean meal, and the 09 contract of bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The potential reduction in rapeseed imports and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and long positions can be held [3][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the South American harvest and the expected increase in US planting area. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and the news of tightening imports. Suggest holding short positions cautiously [6]. - **Bean No. 1**: New soybeans in Hubei and other places are gradually on the market, and the market auction is not good. Try short positions lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory in the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The increase in planting area and the potential impact of drought in some areas. Consider reducing short positions for the 10 contract and shorting on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts [7]. - **Pigs**: The feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. Hold long positions [8]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at the end of the seasonal off - season, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 contract at low positions [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be tried lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and wait and see; Peanuts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and reduce short positions; Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions; Rapeseed oil is expected to rise, and hold long positions; Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal is expected to rise, and try long positions lightly; Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and go long at low positions [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate and sort out, and hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Aquaculture**: Pigs are expected to rebound, and hold long positions; Eggs are expected to find the bottom, and wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, conduct positive spread operations; for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low positions [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some varieties, conduct short - biased or long - biased operations, and for others, wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy Provide the spot price, price change, and basis and its change of various varieties [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, including arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the inventory, startup rate, etc. of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, etc. [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the consumption, inventory, startup rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Aquaculture - Provide the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including price, inventory, production rate, etc. [20][21][22][23][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Aquaculture End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Provide charts of the closing price of the main contracts, spot price, etc. of pigs and eggs [26][28][29][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Provide charts of production, inventory, profit, etc. of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [36][46][50] - **Feed End**: Provide charts of inventory, consumption, profit, etc. of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [54][56][58][65] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options of various varieties [71][73] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties [75][77]

1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on China, following his decision to increase tariffs on India to 50%, which could severely impact US-India trade relations [1][4] - India's response to US sanctions has been relatively passive, with Modi's government seeking negotiations rather than confrontation, indicating India's economic vulnerability [4][5] - The US's stance is that India's support for Russia through oil purchases undermines the US-European alliance, leading to economic repercussions for India [7][8] Group 2 - Despite facing sanctions, India has benefited economically from discounted Russian oil, which it refines and exports, helping to control domestic inflation [7] - In contrast, China has not faced similar sanctions despite its significant oil purchases from Russia, highlighting a disparity in US policy towards these two nations [8][10] - China's economic strength and strategic position make it less susceptible to US pressure, as it has developed robust countermeasures against sanctions [10][11] Group 3 - The complex relationships among China, the US, India, and Russia are characterized by intertwined interests, with China advocating for mutual development and trade [13] - India's realization of the potential benefits of repairing relations with China amidst US pressures reflects a shift in its strategic considerations [11][13]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at 0.6573 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.13%, as investors await key economic data including the second quarter CPI and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The preliminary PMI for July in Australia has risen, indicating accelerated economic activity across various sectors, which has improved the macroeconomic outlook [1] - The current annual CPI for June stands at 2.1%, nearing the lower limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) inflation target range of 2%-3%. A further slowdown in inflation could increase pressure on the RBA to ease monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the RBA will cut interest rates in mid-August and again in November, although RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has downplayed the significance of the June unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, suggesting a more hawkish stance than the market expects [1] - The Australian dollar is sensitive to trade relations, particularly with China, and upcoming manufacturing PMI data from China could impact demand for Australian raw materials, thereby influencing the AUD [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD trading range is between 0.6545 and 0.6585, with support levels at 0.6505-0.6455 and resistance around 0.66875. A potential technical correction may occur if the AUD touches the upper Bollinger Band [2]

Core Insights - Enterprise Ireland reported record export performance for Irish companies in 2024, with exports reaching €36.75 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports to Europe grew by 4% to €10.63 billion, surpassing the UK for the first time as the largest export region [1] - Exports to the UK reached €10.52 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, marking the first time exceeding €10 billion [1] - Exports to the US amounted to €6.66 billion, with non-food exports contributing €5.61 billion [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Food and sustainable products exports increased by 5% to €16.25 billion [2] - Non-food exports rose by 8% to €20.5 billion, with industrial and life sciences exports growing by 9% to €11.46 billion [2] - High-tech construction exports surged by 20% to €4.66 billion [2] - Technology and services sector grew by 7% to €9.05 billion, with digital technology exports increasing by 9% to €3.16 billion [2] Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - Companies supported by Enterprise Ireland employed a record 234,454 individuals in 2024 [2] - These companies contributed significantly to the Irish economy, with total spending of €42.65 billion, including €13 billion in wage expenditures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent imposition of a 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomatoes by the United States is expected to adversely affect not only Mexican farmers but also the broader agricultural trade relationship between the two countries, leading to increased prices for American consumers and potential economic contraction [1] Group 1: Impact on Mexican Farmers - The tariff will significantly harm the interests of Mexican tomato growers, leading to a notable decrease in export volumes to the United States [1] - The agricultural trade relationship between Mexico and the U.S. is being undermined, which could have long-term implications for bilateral trade stability [1] Group 2: Effects on U.S. Consumers - American consumers will face two main challenges: rising tomato prices and economic contraction, which may force them to cut back on spending [1] - The increase in prices for essential food items like tomatoes could contribute to further inflation in the U.S. economy [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Supply - Preliminary assessments indicate that U.S. demand for tomatoes is expected to decline by approximately 25% due to the tariff [1] - The overall supply and demand dynamics in the tomato market are projected to decrease simultaneously, affecting both countries [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia has reached an agreement with the United States to reduce tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% [1] - The agreement includes commitments from Indonesia to purchase $15 billion worth of energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft from the U.S. [1] - The Indonesian President Prabowo expressed that the country has reached its bottom line in negotiations and cannot make further concessions [1] Group 2 - The new tariff rate for Indonesia is lower than that of Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, which has surprised the Vietnamese government [2] - Domestic reactions in Indonesia are mixed, with fishing industry workers expressing concerns over the increase from zero to 19%, while the textile industry welcomes the new rate as it is more favorable compared to higher tariffs faced by competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh [2]