1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

根据彭博社的报道，中国在过去一周内成功订购了25船巴西大豆，装船时间定在今年的3月和4月。同时，对美国大豆的采 购则暂时按下了"暂停键"。 尽管中国已完成对美国大豆的采购承诺，但这并不意味着中美之间的贸易关系得到了实质改善。特朗普政府的频繁高压政 策使得美中合作愈发复杂。在这样的敌对环境中，单靠协议难以推动持久的合作关系。 例如，中国在能源采购上的转向同样引人关注。由于特朗普政府不断施压，中国不得不寻找替代选择，迅速将目光投向更 友好和可靠的产油国，如伊朗和俄罗斯。这一举动可被视作对美国试图"武器化"资源的精准回应：我们不惧失去某个市 场，因为我们还有更多选择。 话语权已经悄然发生变化。在履行对美方的承诺后，中国迅速转向巴西，这实际上反映了市场逻辑：既然已经完成承诺， 那么接下来就应追求自身利益的最大化。巴西大豆不仅价格相对便宜，关税也更具优势（仅3%），选择巴西大豆显然是明 智之举。 从商业角度来看，中国为何不继续大规模购买美国大豆？正如分析师所指出，市场是无情的。即使在关税政策调整后，美 国大豆仍然比巴西大豆昂贵，而那几美分的差距对企业利润具有关键影响。经过多轮贸易谈判，买卖双方的关系仍需不断 调整，但对 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift in Trump's approach towards China after tensions with Europe, indicating a need for partnership to address domestic issues and international challenges [1][11][34] - Trump has previously sought to acquire Greenland for its strategic importance but faced resistance from European nations, leading to threats of tariffs on imports from several countries [3][5] - The NATO summit highlighted disagreements over defense spending, with Trump demanding European countries increase military budgets, which they found unsustainable [7][9] Group 2 - Trump has recently softened his stance towards China, allowing the sale of high-end AI chips and equipment to Chinese companies, indicating a strategic pivot [16][19] - The U.S. is looking to stabilize its trade relationship with China, aiming to end the tariff war and seeking Chinese cooperation in various sectors, including rare earth elements [26][28] - The article emphasizes that Trump's actions are driven by self-interest, aiming to secure political gains and economic benefits through cooperation with China [34][39]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is committed to strengthening cooperation with Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark, focusing on Arctic security and investment in applicable equipment for the region [1] Group 1: EU's Commitment and Actions - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's solidarity and ongoing collaboration with Greenland and Denmark [1] - The EU plans to increase investments in Greenland and Arctic-related equipment while deepening security cooperation with regional partners [1] Group 2: Support and Trade Relations - European Council President Costa stated that Greenland and Denmark have the full support of the EU, which aims to defend its interests against any form of coercion [1] - The EU's goal remains to effectively stabilize trade relations with the United States while being open to constructive engagement on shared concerns, including the situation in Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - A Chinese importer has purchased approximately 60,000 tons of Canadian canola seeds, marking the first transaction since October of the previous year, following Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Developments - The deal is expected to be shipped on a Panamax bulk carrier after March, coinciding with the anticipated reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola seeds [1]. - Following the visit, it is reported that the comprehensive tariff on Canadian canola seeds will be reduced to about 15% by March [4]. - The Canadian government anticipates that the value of canola seed exports to China will reach nearly CAD 5 billion (approximately RMB 25.77 billion) in 2024, although this figure is expected to decline to less than half by 2025 due to trade tensions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian market has led to a 2.4% drop in canola meal futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, reaching a new low in over a year, indicating market expectations of increased supply [1]. - The Australian canola seeds have filled the market gap left by Canada, creating uncertainty for Australian exporters as Canadian canola returns [2]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - The Canadian agriculture and food trade alliance (CAFTA) has welcomed the recent developments, viewing them as a significant step towards restoring stability in bilateral trade relations with China [5]. - Industry leaders express optimism that improved market access to China will directly influence Canadian farmers' planting decisions and long-term investments [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council and the Canadian Canola Growers Association view the agreement as a milestone and are hopeful for the complete restoration of canola seed trade [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 油脂：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 蛋白粕：低价吸引买盘，关注前低支撑力度 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡 生猪：存栏充裕，生猪盘面回落 天然橡胶：地缘消息炒作，持续性存疑 合成橡胶：盘面延续震荡格局 棉花：近月偏强，但上方阻力较大 白糖：短期低位震荡 纸浆：期货持续回落，维持震荡判断 双胶纸：需求预期偏差，双胶纸走弱 原木：仓单压力，原木走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-11 MPOB报告偏利空，油脂关注下方技术支 撑有效性 油脂观点：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 70 yuan per ton is attributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with expectations of a potential stabilization or slight increase in the next pricing cycle [1][4][6] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 70 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel [1][4] - Consumers filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will incur an additional cost of 2.5 yuan due to this price adjustment [1][4] - The price range for 92 gasoline post-adjustment is between 7.25 to 7.45 yuan per liter, while diesel prices range from 6.86 to 7.06 yuan per liter [5] Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced mixed trends, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating around 70 dollars per barrel, reaching 70.13 dollars on July 30 before dropping below that level again [2][3] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 70,000 barrels per day in July, reaching a new high for 2018 at 32.64 million barrels per day [2] - Russia's oil production also rose to 4.7429 million tons per day in July, exceeding commitments made in previous OPEC meetings [2] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the next round of fuel price adjustments, scheduled for August 20, may result in either a stabilization or a slight increase in prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and production increases from oil-producing countries [6] - The interplay of geopolitical crises, production levels, and a strengthening dollar is expected to create a volatile environment for oil prices, with a low likelihood of a one-sided market trend [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

毛宁当天还指出，如果日方拒不撤回，甚至一错再错，中方将不得不采取严厉坚决的反制措施，由此产 生的一切后果由日方承担。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 此外，据日本广播协会（NHK）19日报道，中方已向日方正式通报将暂停进口日本水产品。 中国外交部发言人毛宁同日主持例行记者会时回应，近期由于日本首相高市早苗倒行逆施，在台湾等重 大问题上的错误言论引起中国民众的强烈公愤。当前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口，也不会有市 场。 当地时间19日，日本共同社援引多名日本政府消息人士的话报道称，根据中方的意向，有关恢复日本牛 肉对华出口的政府间磋商已中止。 共同社称，中国自2001年起暂停进口日本产牛肉，两国政府在2019年签署动物卫生检疫协定，但后来停 滞，未能推进。今年7月，日方表示中方关于日本牛肉的动物卫生检疫协定已正式生效，这一协定生效 是日本牛肉重启出口的重大前提。为实现实际重启出口，双方将围绕食品卫生和检疫方面继续展开谈 判。 ...