来源：市场资讯 10月10日，欧美股市集体大跌，纳指、标普500指数创4月以来最大单日跌幅。富时A50期指连续夜盘收 跌4.26%。据媒体报道，特朗普周五威胁将大幅提高关税，以反制他国实施更严格的稀土矿物出口管制 措施，并表示将大幅提高关税，令投资者担心大国之间的贸易关系将会继续恶化。特朗普在其社交媒体 平台Truth Social上表示："作为美国总统，我将被迫采取财政手段反制他们的行动。我们正在测算的政 策选项之一，是对进入美国的产品大幅提高关税。同样处于严肃考虑范围内的反制措施还有许多。"(证 券时报) （来源：科创100ETF基金） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Corn, Eggs [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. In the long - term, some products like soybean meal and bean - palm oil have potential upward trends, while others like Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean decline slows down with price hovering at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual acquisition performance in the Northeast after late September and the verification of the expected improvement in trade relations for imported soybeans [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal 2601 decreased positions by over 50,000 lots and rose 0.43%. Supply is sufficient in Q4, and there may be a gap in Q1 next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The decline of soybean oil and palm oil slows down with a small rebound. Overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September shows differences. In the long - term, they can be considered for buying at low prices under the support of overseas biodiesel policies [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed prices rise with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. Canadian rapeseed continues to decline. The support of domestic supply bottlenecks for rapeseed prices remains, and attention should be paid to the expected trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures opened high and closed low. Spot prices vary in different regions. After the enthusiasm for new grain acquisition fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - Both spot and futures prices of live hogs continue to decline, hitting new lows this year. The supply pressure is large, and the bearish sentiment persists after the futures price breaks through the key resistance level [8] Eggs - Egg futures continue to reduce positions with a weak near - term and strong far - term pattern. The spot price has回调 for two consecutive days. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations amid economic challenges and a decline in GDP [1][2] Economic Indicators - Canada's GDP fell approximately 1.5% in Q2, primarily due to a 27% drop in exports, contrasting with high export levels in Q1 [1] - Employment numbers have decreased over the past two months, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.1% in August [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% year-on-year in August, remaining stable from July, while core inflation indicators have shown signs of weakening [1][2] Monetary Policy - The recent policy statement did not continue the previous mention of "potential further easing," indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts [2] - The Bank of Canada emphasizes a data-driven approach to policy adjustments, focusing on short-term dynamics and economic risks [2][3] - The central bank is closely monitoring the impact of government policies on economic growth and inflation trends [2] Trade and Inflation - Ongoing U.S. tariff policies and changing trade relations are expected to exert pressure on Canadian exports and consumer prices [2] - The recent removal of tariffs on certain U.S. imports is anticipated to alleviate price pressures on related goods [2] Future Outlook - The Bank of Canada warns that slow population growth and a weak labor market may pressure household spending in the coming months [3] - The central bank's primary goal remains to maintain public confidence in price stability while supporting economic stability [3]

Sino-US Trade Relations - Both sides recognize the significance of stable trade relations, acknowledging that frictions are normal but emphasizing the importance of respecting each other's core concerns [1] - China firmly safeguards the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises and will not sacrifice corporate interests to reach an agreement [1] Company Specific (TikTok) - The US and China engaged in in-depth, frank, and constructive exchanges on issues of mutual concern, including TikTok [1] Market Monitoring - A press conference by the Chinese trade delegation was scheduled for GMT 15:00 (Beijing time 23:00) in Madrid, Spain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump criticized Brazil as a poor trade partner, citing high tariffs and unfavorable laws, while Brazilian President Lula refuted these claims, asserting Brazil's strength and independence in trade negotiations [1] Group 1: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - President Trump described Brazil as a "terrible trade partner" due to excessive tariffs imposed on the U.S. [1] - Lula responded by stating that Brazil is not a bad trade partner and emphasized that Brazil will not yield to U.S. government pressure [1] Group 2: Political Statements - Trump's comments reflect a broader critique of Brazil's trade policies and legal framework [1] - Lula's rebuttal highlights Brazil's commitment to maintaining its sovereignty in trade matters [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The August USDA supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the new - season US soybean planting area, which is bullish. The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on 8400, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is the focus. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. The price is expected to rise, with support at 9500 - 9510 and pressure at 10450 - 10490 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, which is bullish. Hold long positions, with support at 8800 - 8828 and pressure at 9900 - 9910 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No.2**: The August USDA report is bullish. Due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal and consider long positions in the 09 contract of bean No.2 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy may lead to less rapeseed purchasing. Adopt a low - buying strategy, with support at 2617 - 2621 and pressure at 2960 - 2963 [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report is bearish for the external market. In the domestic market, although there are signs of tightening imports, the fundamental pressure remains. Suggest reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts [6]. - **Bean No.1**: The USDA report is bullish, but the new domestic soybeans are gradually coming to the market. Consider exiting short positions in the main contract and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [7]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory is low, but the new - season planting area increases. The price is under pressure in the long - term, but the 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term [8]. - **Hogs**: The feed price rebounds, and the de - capacity expectation is strengthened. Hold long positions in the 11 - contract [9]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at a low level, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. Be cautious about short - selling, and radical investors can consider buying the 10 - contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No.1 11 - contract may fluctuate, consider light - short positions; Bean No.2 09 - contract may be bullish, consider light - long positions; Peanut 10 - contract may rebound, consider light - long short - term positions [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions; Rapeseed oil 09 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Palm 09 - contract may be bullish, hold long positions [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 - contract may rise, hold long positions; Rapeseed meal 09 - contract may rise, buy at low positions [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts; Corn starch 09 - contract may fluctuate, reduce short positions or shift to far - month contracts [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract may rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract may find the bottom, wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, consider positive spread operations; for hogs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, consider positive spread operations at low positions [13][14]. - **Inter - variety**: For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, adopt a bearish operation; for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, adopt a bullish operation; for 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, consider long positions [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and开机率 of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of hog prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, pig - grain ratio, etc. [21][25]. - **Eggs**: It provides the daily and weekly data of egg prices, culled chicken prices, production rate, inventory, etc. [22][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Livestock Farming End (Hogs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of hog and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, chicken prices, etc. [27][35] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes the production, inventory, export, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][53] - **Feed End**: It includes the inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, and soybean meal [56][69] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility and trading volume data of options related to various varieties [74][75] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil continues to break through and rise. The market is worried about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter due to the tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 level. Hold long positions and consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The procurement and arrival of domestic rapeseed have decreased, and the inventory has declined from the high point but is still at a relatively high level. The preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The July ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the production in early August was poor. The increase in Indonesian export taxes in August may increase Malaysia's export share. Hold long positions [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense, and there is a concern about the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter. Hold long positions for the 01 contract of soybean meal, and the 09 contract of bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The potential reduction in rapeseed imports and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, and long positions can be held [3][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure from the South American harvest and the expected increase in US planting area. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and the news of tightening imports. Suggest holding short positions cautiously [6]. - **Bean No. 1**: New soybeans in Hubei and other places are gradually on the market, and the market auction is not good. Try short positions lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The inventory in the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The increase in planting area and the potential impact of drought in some areas. Consider reducing short positions for the 10 contract and shorting on rebounds for the 11 and 01 contracts [7]. - **Pigs**: The feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. Hold long positions [8]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is at the end of the seasonal off - season, and the cost collapse risk is partially released. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 contract at low positions [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be tried lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and wait and see; Peanuts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and reduce short positions; Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions; Rapeseed oil is expected to rise, and hold long positions; Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and hold long positions [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal is expected to rise, and try long positions lightly; Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and go long at low positions [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to fluctuate and sort out, and hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Aquaculture**: Pigs are expected to rebound, and hold long positions; Eggs are expected to find the bottom, and wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For soybean meal 11 - 1, conduct positive spread operations; for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low positions [12][13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some varieties, conduct short - biased or long - biased operations, and for others, wait and see [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy Provide the spot price, price change, and basis and its change of various varieties [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, including arrival premium, futures price, CNF price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the inventory, startup rate, etc. of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, peanuts, etc. [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Provide the import cost data of corn from different countries and months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provide the consumption, inventory, startup rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Aquaculture - Provide the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, including price, inventory, production rate, etc. [20][21][22][23][24] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Chart - **Aquaculture End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Provide charts of the closing price of the main contracts, spot price, etc. of pigs and eggs [26][28][29][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Provide charts of production, inventory, profit, etc. of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [36][46][50] - **Feed End**: Provide charts of inventory, consumption, profit, etc. of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [54][56][58][65] 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options of various varieties [71][73] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Aquaculture, and Oils Provide charts of the warehouse receipt quantity of various varieties [75][77]

1. Urea Core View The domestic urea futures market has shown a weak and volatile trend recently, mainly driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, leading to a poor trading atmosphere in the spot market and pushing down the futures price [7]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: On August 11, the 01 contract closed at 1751, unchanged from August 8; the 05 contract closed at 1790, up 6 or 0.34%; the 09 contract closed at 1722, down 6 or -0.35% [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was -39 on August 11, down 6 or -18.18% from August 8; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 68, up 12 or 21.43%; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was -29, down 6 or -26.09%; the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was -667, down 12 or -1.83% [3]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1403 to 63621 on August 11, a rise of 2.25%; the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 966 to 69896, a decline of -1.36%; the long - short ratio was 0.91, up 0.03 or 3.67%; the unilateral trading volume was 102540, up 22267 or 27.74%; the number of Zhengshang Institute warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3623 [4]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng remained at 900 yuan/ton; the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner increased by 10 to 525 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.94%; the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port remained at 680 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong remained at 2300 yuan/ton; the estimated fixed - bed production cost remained at 1430 yuan/ton; the estimated water - coal slurry production cost increased by 14 to 1155 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.23% [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased by 30, 20, and 40 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -1.70%, -1.21%, and -2.25%; the prices in Northeast China and Guangdong remained unchanged; the FOB price of small - sized urea in China and the FOB price of large - sized urea in the US Gulf remained unchanged [6]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong and Henan, Guangdong and Henan, and Guangdong and Shanxi changed, and the basis in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while the basis in Guangdong increased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 70 to 5177 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; the prices of 45% S and 45% CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged; the compound fertilizer - urea ratio increased by 0.04 to 1.57, a rise of 2.30% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production increased by 0.20 to 19.21 million tons, a rise of 1.05%; the weekly domestic urea production decreased by 2.63 to 132.85 million tons, a decline of -1.94%; the weekly domestic urea plant - side inventory decreased by 2.97 to 88.76 million tons, a decline of -3.24%; the weekly domestic urea port inventory decreased by 1.00 to 48.30 million tons, a decline of -2.03% [7]. 2. Crude Oil Core View Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend. The main trading logic is the influence of geopolitical risks and marginal supply increments. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is the focus. The market is in a cautious wait - and - see attitude. In the medium - to - long term, the direction of oil prices depends on the negotiation results and inventory changes. There is no strong unilateral trend currently [9]. Summary by Category - **Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 12, Brent crude oil was at 66.84 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 or 0.32%; WTI was at 64.13 dollars/barrel, up 0.17 or 0.27%; SC was at 494.00 yuan/barrel, up 1.50 or 0.30%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil and their month - to - month spreads changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined oil products in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 12 compared with August 11 [9]. 3. PVC and Caustic Soda Core View The caustic soda market is expected to be neutral to weak in the later stage, and the PVC market faces great supply - demand pressure, but attention should be paid to the boost of coking coal prices on PVC [19]. Summary by Category - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 11, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed compared with August 8 [14]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 10 to 390 dollars/ton, a decline of -2.5%; the export profit increased by 22.7 to 142.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 19.0%. The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 87.9 to 30.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 152.5% [15][16]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate and the PVC total operating rate increased, while the profits of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing changed slightly; the operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes, profiles, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, the upstream plant - side inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC increased [19]. 4. Polyolefins Core View The supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventories in the middle and upstream are being depleted. There is no major supply - demand contradiction [23]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 11, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and their spreads, as well as the spot prices of East China PP drawstrings, North China LLDPE film materials, and their basis changed compared with August 8 [23]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of various PE and PP products in East China changed on August 11 compared with the previous period [23]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [23]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Core View In the short term, pure benzene prices are relatively well - supported, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is also restricted. Specific trading strategies are provided for both [26]. Summary by Category - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 11, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, CFR China pure benzene, and their spreads changed compared with August 8 [26]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China, EB futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the cash flows and import profits changed [26]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, ABS and other downstream products changed [26]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene产业链 changed [26]. 6. Methanol Core View The methanol market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal and supply - reduction expectations. Specific trading strategies are provided [30]. Summary by Category - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 8, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread, Taicang basis, and regional spreads changed compared with August 7 [30]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3 to 29.3688%, a decline of -9.50%; the methanol port inventory increased by 12 to 92.5 million tons, a rise of 14.48%; the methanol social inventory increased by 8.6 to 121.9%, a rise of 7.61% [30]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream domestic enterprises and some downstream industries changed on August 8 compared with the previous period [30]. 7. Polyester Industry Chain Core View The supply - demand situations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip are different, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [59]. Summary by Category - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 11, the prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and their cash flows changed compared with August 8 [59]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and their spreads, as well as the PX basis and processing spreads changed [59]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA, PTA futures contracts, and their basis, processing spreads, and operating rates changed [59]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG, MEG futures contracts, and their basis, spreads, and cash flows changed [59]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on China, following his decision to increase tariffs on India to 50%, which could severely impact US-India trade relations [1][4] - India's response to US sanctions has been relatively passive, with Modi's government seeking negotiations rather than confrontation, indicating India's economic vulnerability [4][5] - The US's stance is that India's support for Russia through oil purchases undermines the US-European alliance, leading to economic repercussions for India [7][8] Group 2 - Despite facing sanctions, India has benefited economically from discounted Russian oil, which it refines and exports, helping to control domestic inflation [7] - In contrast, China has not faced similar sanctions despite its significant oil purchases from Russia, highlighting a disparity in US policy towards these two nations [8][10] - China's economic strength and strategic position make it less susceptible to US pressure, as it has developed robust countermeasures against sanctions [10][11] Group 3 - The complex relationships among China, the US, India, and Russia are characterized by intertwined interests, with China advocating for mutual development and trade [13] - India's realization of the potential benefits of repairing relations with China amidst US pressures reflects a shift in its strategic considerations [11][13]