热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯禽蛋产业链分析师李阳 【导语】受饲料成本高企而蛋价持续低迷影响，2025年蛋鸡养殖持续亏损，倒逼行业调整方向：养殖户 提前淘汰老鸡、补栏趋于谨慎，产业开启"去产能"进程。展望2026年1月，新开产蛋鸡减少与节前集中 淘汰叠加，预计在产蛋鸡存栏将继续微降；同时春节备货需求逐步释放，市场供需关系趋于收紧。预计 1月鸡蛋价格在"供应小幅下降、需求季节性增强"的格局下，将呈现逐步回暖走势，月均价有望回到"3 元线"之上。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 从鸡蛋价格来看，2025年12月蛋价处于偏低水平。由于供应依然充足，前期蛋价上涨幅度有限，且因市 场需求缺乏利多提振，蛋价小幅上涨之后，贸易商采购心态偏谨慎，市场走货放缓，鸡蛋价格震荡走 低，月均价逼近"3元大关"。在蛋鸡养殖过程中，饲料成本占比较高。玉米方面，基层农户售粮进度不 及预期，市场货源供应有限，饲用玉米维持刚需支撑，玉米价格涨幅明显，部分深加工企业成本压力提 升。豆粕方面，由于市场传闻进口大豆通关再度收紧，供应端预期转紧导致现货价格走高。2025年12月 玉米及豆粕价格偏强运 ...

期货日报记者在采访中了解到，玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨的主要原因是政策预期改善带来的估值修复，宏观与产业层面多重信号共振，市场风险偏好回 升。 宏观层面，本周召开的2026年央行工作会议释放利多信号，明确提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 中信建投（601066）期货能化高级分析师胡鹏认为，这一表述为宏观预期改善筑牢基础，会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度、保持流动性充裕，不仅 能为经济稳定增长营造良好的货币金融环境，也能带动大宗商品市场看多情绪回暖。 产业层面，"反内卷"政策持续推进。2025年12月，陕西省发展改革委发布差别电价政策，对铁合金、烧碱等7个限制类产能的电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘 汰类产能加价幅度更高，落后产能有望加速出清。与此同时，玻璃、纯碱产业结构调整持续深化，2025年沙河地区加快玻璃企业"煤改气"进程，湖北计划 在2026年8月底之前完成玻璃企业清洁能源改造，等等。上述举措进一步为期货价格反弹提供助力。 此外，成本端与产销端的变化也为玻璃、纯碱价格上涨提供了有力支撑。 玻璃方面，据国投期货高级分析师周小燕介绍，近期沙河及湖北地区产销态势转好，行业有 ...

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月07日 | | 尿素 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | な女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ななな | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | なな女 | 短纤 | な女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | な☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【聚酯) 【烯烃-聚烯烃 ...

新一轮的涨价潮，是要来了吗？ 2025年12月15日起，在无官方通知的情况下，麦当劳对多款餐品的价格进行上调，涨幅在0.5-1元， 包括多款汉堡、小食及套餐。 然后是茅台。 2025年12月24日，第三方平台"今日酒价"数据显示，茅台酒全系列产品批发价全线上涨，其中25年 飞天茅台原箱单日涨40元至1600元/瓶，生肖蛇原箱单日暴涨230元至2000元/瓶，非标产品涨幅显 著。 再然后是中芯国际。 中芯国际已经对部分产能实施了涨价，涨幅约为 10% 。据 《科创板日报》报道，中芯国际已向下游 客户发布涨价通知，且此次涨价主要集中于8英寸BCD工艺平台，涨价幅度在10%左右。 再然后是航运方面。 全球主要集装箱航运公司已陆续发布新年首轮运价调整通知。地中海航运（ MSC ）、达飞轮船（ CMA CGM ）、马士基（ Maersk ）及赫伯罗特（ Hapag-Lloyd ）等巨头纷纷行动。 计划自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起，对欧洲、地中海、非洲、拉美等多条关键航线征收旺季附加费（ PSS ）或上调均一运费率。 再再然后，手机其实也有涨价。 这段时间，我不知道大家有没有关注，好多行业，好多东西，要开始涨价了。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-12-26） 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3310，基差183；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存294.19万吨，环比减少，同比增加；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线走平；偏多 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，促进国内消费。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].

在投资领域，因子被视作"破局"的关键钥匙，而指数基金则成为"重构"资产的重要载体。面对日益丰富 的投资工具与复杂的市场环境，如何借助指数工具实现资产的科学配置与动态调整，成为众多投资者关 注的核心议题。 2025年12月20日，在2025年雪球嘉年华主会场上，富国基金量化投资部总经理王保合带来《如何用指数 基金实现投资配置》的主题分享，结合市场数据与行业趋势，深入解析指数基金的投资价值与配置策 略，为不同风险偏好的投资者提供了专业参考。 指数基金市场发展迅猛，投资价值凸显 其二，房地产市场的触底企稳。全国房地产价格已经趋于稳定，其对经济增速的影响已基本消除，这为 整体经济的平稳运行与盈利修复创造了有利条件。 其三，出口市场的稳健表现。中美贸易博弈背景下，海外市场的供需关系成为影响中国出口的核心因 素。目前美国需求呈现复苏态势，欧洲也于2024年3月调整预算政策，海外市场需求的增加将为中国出 口提供有力支撑。同时，中国在关键领域的产业优势，也为出口稳定性提供了保障，无需过度担忧贸易 政策带来的短期波动。 值得注意的是，当前A股市场估值呈现结构化特征，并非全面高估。与纳斯达克30倍左右的估值水平相 比，沪深300 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: December 19, 2025 - **Researcher**: Zhang Xiaojun - **Contact**: 0371 - 65617380 - **Qualification**: F0242716 (Futures Practitioner), Z0011864 (Futures Trading Consultant) Report Key Points Corn - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Corn prices face both support and pressure, and are seeking to verify support levels [4] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the northeast and north China rose slightly; north - south port prices were stable with a slight increase; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 627 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed; in November 2025, corn imports reached a yearly high, with cumulative imports from January - November down 86.08% year - on - year, and cumulative imports from October - November up 67.27% year - on - year; the bid - invitation sales of imported corn by CGSCC had a 100% transaction rate [4][5] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, prices oscillate due to seasonal selling pressure and support from farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream inventory building; medium - term, seasonal selling pressure remains before the Spring Festival, and policy grain auctions may provide supply next year; long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution and planting costs, with policy orientation being key [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, suggest waiting or short - term trading. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2200 - 2220; for the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190. Consider low - buying opportunities if support holds [6] Pig - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Winter Solstice stocking, the supply pressure of pigs is emerging [9] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price fell; the number of sows in October 2025 was below 40 million; the number of piglets from January - September increased, with a decrease in October; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the fat - lean price difference was stable; and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the end of Winter Solstice stocking has led to a price decline. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase until March next year, with relief starting from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September next year, and may ease after that if sow inventory continues to decline [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic; the 2603 contract returns to range - trading; far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. If sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities after September next year. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [11] Egg - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The egg market has a weak current situation but strong expectations, with near - month contracts being weak and far - month contracts being strong [16] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg spot prices were stable with a slight increase; inventory increased significantly; the price of old hens decreased; the number of laying hens in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and is expected to decline further in December [16] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are in a low - range, and focus on downstream consumption and inventory. Medium - term, egg supply pressure remains, and the upward momentum of spot prices is limited. Long - term, the increasing scale of egg production may limit price increases, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in near - month contracts after inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on whether low prices can drive culling and capacity reduction. Currently, supply pressure exists before the second quarter next year, and whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on first - quarter culling [18]

2025年12月，大连产权交易所的一则挂牌公告，再次将华润啤酒的"隐痛"摆上了台面。 雪花啤酒齐齐哈尔富区工厂的土地使用权及房屋建筑物，正在进行第三次转让。价格从9月的635万元一路下调至508万元，降幅超过120万元，却依然无人 问津。这并非个案，就在同一个月，已停产长达六年的华润雪花长春工厂终于完成了注销，而在此之前，其资产经历了四次挂牌、降价40%仍流拍的尴尬 局面。 败走"龙兴之地"：一场持续八年的资产清算 对于华润啤酒而言，东北不仅是市场，更是"龙兴之地"。但如今，这里成了急需甩掉的沉重包袱。 大连产权交易所的挂牌信息，揭开了华润啤酒在东北资产处置困境的冰山一角。截至2025年末，华润啤酒在东北挂牌转让的工厂多达8家，涵盖黑龙江依 兰、齐齐哈尔，辽宁铁岭、葫芦岛及吉林长春等地。这些工厂的命运无非就是关停、闲置、挂牌、流拍、降价、再流拍。 以齐齐哈尔富区工厂为例，几百万的转让价对于一家上市公司而言九牛一毛，但迟迟无法成交的背后，是这些资产尴尬的现实处境：地处三四线城市或县 城，地理位置偏僻，本地工业需求萎缩，且啤酒生产设备专用性强，改造难度极大。 令人唏嘘的是长春工厂。这家成立于2001年的工厂，前身 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3270，基差196；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存338.7万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-12-17） 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...