8月25日晚间，钧达股份（002865）(002865.SZ，股价49.68元，市值145.36亿元)发布2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入36.63亿元， 同比下降42.53%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润(以下简称归母净利润)亏损2.64亿元，去年同期则亏损1.66亿元，亏损额扩大。 作为外贸出口"新三样"之一，光伏产品出海持续增长，钧达股份上半年也是如此，虽然其境内收入下滑较大，但境外销售占比从2024 年的23.85%大幅增长至51.87%，营收规模从8.79亿元增加至19亿元，实现翻倍增长。 今年5月，钧达股份在香港联交所主板挂牌，成为行业内首家"A+H"双平台上市企业，当时募资主要投向海外市场拓展。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，钧达股份在半年报中表示，第一季度产业链价格及企业业绩在一定程度上迎来修复，但第二季度产业 链价格阶段性出现下滑，"内卷式竞争"依然存在。 中原证券研报还预计，今年下半年，TOPCon电池市场份额逐步趋稳，BC电池市场份额继续呈现快速提升趋势。同时，预计去库存和 去产能仍是光伏行业2025年下半年的主基调，保份额还是保利润成为企业的"囚徒困境"。市场进入出清深水区。境外收入翻 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-8-25） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位小幅减少，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期；偏 空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3300，基差179；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存432.51万吨，环比增加，同比减少；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，后市需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路对待 利多： 产量库存维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 利多： 需求尚可，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本 ...

摘要 石化化工行业面临新一轮政策调控，200 万吨以下炼厂产能或被淘汰， 乙烯等项目受限，20 年以上老旧装置面临调整，约束国内产能利用。 石化化工行业自 2022 年下半年进入下行周期，企业安全投入和资本支 出大幅下降，欧洲和韩国亦有关停产能，行业面临深度调整。 中证细分化工龙头指数 PB 分位数处于历史低位，叠加政策利好预期， 龙头企业如万华、华鲁、扬农等未来一年半内或有明显收益。 能源局限制煤矿超产政策趋严，煤价走势取决于政策执行力度，合理煤 价区间预计在 650-750 元之间，影响煤炭企业盈利。 铝铜材出口退税取消加速产业升级，叠加 AI 需求拉动，易拉罐料、印刷 板机及 AI 驱动液冷相关铜加工品种加工费或回升，利好龙头企业。 快递行业反内卷提价显著，广东地区平均提价约 5 毛钱，预计长期维持， 将显著提高通达系快递公司的盈利能力。 美联储鸽派表态提升降息预期，上游供需偏紧的铜、铝、黄金等资源品 价格预计上涨，企业结汇需求增加，市场流动性总体利好各类资产。 股市热度下反内卷板块的机会展望 20250824 Q&A 请介绍一下近期石化化工行业反内卷的政策背景和预期。 石化化工行业的反内卷政策在今年 ...

Group 1: Ukraine-Russia Conflict - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky aimed to prepare for a trilateral meeting with Russian President Putin, with hopes of achieving positive outcomes [1][2] - Zelensky expressed the need for all security guarantees from the US and other major powers to compel Russia towards peace [1][3] - Trump indicated the possibility of sending US troops for peacekeeping in Ukraine if the situation allows [1][2] Group 2: Multilateral Discussions - Sensitive issues, including territorial matters, will be discussed in the upcoming trilateral meeting [2][3] - French President Macron emphasized that the trilateral meeting is the only way to resolve the issues and suggested a potential four-party meeting involving Europe [2] Group 3: Military and Economic Agreements - Ukraine is reportedly committing to purchase $100 billion worth of military equipment from the US, funded by Europe, in exchange for security guarantees post-peace agreement with Russia [4] - An additional $50 billion agreement for drone production cooperation is also expected to be signed between the US and Ukraine [4] Group 4: Communication with Russia - Trump initiated a phone call with Putin to discuss the outcomes of the meetings with Zelensky and European leaders, aiming to facilitate direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [4][5] - Both Trump and Putin expressed support for direct negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representatives [5] Group 5: Glass Market Analysis - Glass futures and spot prices have been declining since late July, with spot prices in North China dropping to 1150 yuan/ton and in Central China to 1110 yuan/ton [8] - The glass market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with production rates remaining high while demand is weak, particularly due to a 16.5% year-on-year decline in construction area from January to July [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the glass market's future price movements will depend on macroeconomic conditions and the recovery of the real estate sector [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Last week, steel and ore prices remained in a high - level oscillatory pattern, and the market was unable to break this situation. The marginal effect of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, and market focus returned to fundamentals. The weekly apparent demand for rebar decreased and was lower than the same period last year, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils rebounded, higher than both the same period last year and the average of the past five years. The increase in iron ore port inventory pressured the market, but overall molten iron production increased, arrivals decreased, and raw material prices were firm, providing strong support at the lower end. In the future, policies remain the key to the market trend. Before the policies are clear, no trending market is expected, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillatory mindset [66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price rose from 770 yuan/wet ton to 772 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 809 yuan/wet ton to 810 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit rose from - 11.36 yuan/wet ton to - 10.49 yuan/wet ton, and Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 6.31 yuan/wet ton to 7.33 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 122.8 tons to 1365.6 tons, while Brazilian shipments to China increased by 104.7 tons to 847.4 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 114.3 tons to 14381.57 tons, arrivals decreased by 50.8 tons to 2571.6 tons, and port clearance volume increased by 10.35 tons to 346.8 tons. Iron ore port trading volume increased by 35.9 tons to 105.6 tons, daily average molten iron production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 65.8% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price dropped from 3340 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton, while Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3450 yuan/ton to 3460 yuan/ton. Blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, and electric furnace operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39%. Rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 151 yuan/ton, and rebar electric furnace profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton. Rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output increased by 0.7 tons to 315.59 tons. Rebar weekly social inventory increased by 26.45 tons to 414.93 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 277.49 tons. Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased by 4.06 tons to 172.26 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 79.98 tons. Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons, hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.64 tons to 314.85 tons, and building material trading volume increased by 11408 tons to 105050 tons [35][37]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and electric furnace operating rate increased [35]. - **Output**: Rebar weekly output decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil weekly output increased slightly [35]. - **Profit**: Steel product profits generally decreased, including rebar blast furnace profit, hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit, and rebar electric furnace profit [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar social and enterprise inventories increased, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly and enterprise inventory increased [37]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness of traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in major cities shows a mixed trend (up环比, down同比), the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, and exports are blocked. Domestic policies may play a role. It has a positive basis, inventory in major cities is decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line with the line going up, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The market is also expected to be in high - level oscillation due to supply - demand weakening, export issues, and capacity - reduction plans [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and trader purchasing willingness is weak [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3320, and the basis is 132, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is negative [2]. - **Main Position**: The main rebar position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are the continuous downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand [2][3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, with a neutral assessment [6]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3460, and the basis is 21, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 277.49 million tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is going up, with a neutral assessment [6]. - **Main Position**: The main hot - rolled coil position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors are acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; negative factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [6][7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement in various industries aims for quality improvement and high-quality development rather than merely reducing capacity [1][14]. Group 1: Economic and Employment Impact - "Anti-involution" has a short-term impact on the economy and employment, but with appropriate employment policies and new effective supply, the short-term pressure can be managed [19]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate in China has dropped to 74.0%, indicating significant overcapacity issues [4][5]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Analysis - Key industries facing overcapacity include steel, coal, automotive, battery, photovoltaic, cement, and petrochemicals, with utilization rates in these sectors ranking among the lowest [6]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a reduction in price war pressures, with profit margins stabilizing, indicating a shift from price competition to value competition [15]. - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, but recent policies are pushing for the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in prices for silicon materials and wafers [16]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" policy emphasizes legal and market-driven approaches, contrasting with the previous round of capacity reduction that was primarily administratively driven [12]. - The new policies include measures such as the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the establishment of fair competition review systems to prevent price dumping [12]. - The focus of the current "anti-involution" is on both traditional and emerging industries, aiming to alleviate price wars and promote innovation and green transformation [8][10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that industrial capacity utilization in China has decreased from a peak of 85.2% in 2007 to the current 74.0%, highlighting the need for structural reforms to address overcapacity [5]. - The anticipated impact of a 5% capacity reduction in key sectors like steel and coal is projected to decrease GDP growth by approximately 0.22 percentage points, indicating a manageable but notable effect on the economy [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, the demand shows no improvement, the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real estate industry is still in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract increasing, it is expected that the real estate market will remain weak, future demand will cool down, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. Therefore, a high - level oscillation approach should be adopted [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play. With a positive basis, inventory showing positive signs, a neutral market trend, and a net short position of the main contract decreasing, it is expected that market supply and demand will weaken, exports will be blocked, and the domestic plan to cut production capacity will impact the market. A high - level oscillation approach should also be adopted [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is at a low level and slightly decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3320, and the basis is 131, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 314.93 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [2]. - **Main Contract Position**: The main contract of rebar has a net short position, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may come into play, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3450, and the basis is 18, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 277.49 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Contract Position**: The main contract of hot - rolled coils has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production - capacity reduction expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China has achieved remarkable success but is now facing challenges such as price declines and reduced profitability, prompting the need for internal adjustments to overcome industry "involution" [2]. Summary by Sections Involution and Competition - "Involution" has become a significant issue across various industries, necessitating a re-evaluation of competitive philosophies and the establishment of new competition rules [3]. - The distinction between healthy and unhealthy competition is crucial, with the latter often leading to value destruction. The recognition of "involution" as a form of harmful competition has gained consensus [4]. Industry Self-Regulation - Industry self-regulation is essential, with associations playing a key role in promoting self-discipline among members. This includes industry planning, policy formulation, technological innovation, and combating unfair competition [6]. - The importance of leading enterprises in setting examples for self-regulation is emphasized, fostering a collaborative ecosystem among businesses [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions are vital for enhancing industry concentration and overcoming involution. Historical examples from the U.S. steel industry illustrate the benefits of consolidation [8]. - The advantages of mergers include strengthening enterprises, improving company quality, facilitating innovation, and increasing industry concentration [9]. Capacity Management - The photovoltaic industry faces a significant supply-demand imbalance, necessitating both production cuts and capacity reductions to stabilize prices and maintain profitability [10]. - Historical practices in the cement industry demonstrate that production limits can effectively balance supply and demand without adversely affecting overall sales [11]. Pricing Strategy - A shift from a volume-based to a price-based profit model is necessary, emphasizing the importance of maintaining pricing power rather than solely focusing on sales volume [12][13]. - Effective pricing strategies can significantly impact profitability, and companies should avoid relying on sales personnel for pricing decisions [14]. Innovation and Value Creation - To transition from a competitive "red ocean" to an innovative "blue ocean," companies must focus on differentiation, market segmentation, high-end product development, and brand building [15][16][17][18]. - The emphasis on innovation is crucial for enhancing product quality and achieving competitive advantages in the market [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]