每经记者｜胡健 每经实习记者｜张蕊 每经编辑｜毕陆名 6月，《中共中央国务院关于全面加强生态环境保护坚决打好污染防治攻坚战的意见》对外正式发布。7 月25日，工信部印发《坚决打好工业和通信业污染防治攻坚战三年行动计划》（以下简称《计划》）， 旨在促进工业和通信业高质量发展。 《计划》提出，到2020年，规模以上企业单位工业增加值能耗比2015年下降18%，绿色制造和高技术产 业占比大幅提高，京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、汾渭平原、长江经济带沿线11省市等重点区域、流 域重化工业比重明显下降，产业布局更加优化，结构更加合理。《计划》特别提出，2018年将再压减钢 铁产能3000万吨左右。 严防"地条钢"死灰复燃 近年来，一些行业发展一直受困于产能严重过剩的顽疾。 事实上，以BAT为代表的互联网巨头早就在发力智能制造，整个智能制造领域看似发展得如火如荼，但 实际上，"面向技术研发测试、标准实验验证和创新应用验证的公共测试床，供应链协同的专业化服务 平台等智能制造支撑平台建设还比较滞后，智能制造支撑能力比较弱"。中国工程院战略咨询中心高级 工程师杨晓迎在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时说，由于缺少支撑企业创新的孵化器 ...

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-17） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差137；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存415.75万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线走平；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 利多： 需求尚可，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游需求步入季节性淡季，预期悲观 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-12） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差165；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存425.7万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, new grain harvest brings supply pressure, focus on North China's weather impact; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season drivers; long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing logic. Consider low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract [5]. - Pig: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair; mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized. Suggest waiting and seeing for near - month contracts and being cautious about far - month contracts [11][12]. - Egg: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported; mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range; long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [17][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Important Information**: On October 31, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2001 yuan/ton, and were stable in North China at 2169 yuan/ton; port prices in Jinzhou rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton, and were stable in Shekou at 2285 yuan/ton; the number of futures warehouse receipts was 63966; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong widened to + 380 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, new grain supply pressure exists, spot is weakly stable, pay attention to North China's weather. Mid - term, trade in a wide range. Long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing and focus on policies [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a mid - long - term range trading strategy. Focus on low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract after callback, with the first support at 2100, the second at 2050 - 2080; the first pressure at 2150, the second at 2160 - 2170. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2120 - 2130 [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On October 31, the national average pig price was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. In September, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%. As of October 30, the average slaughter weight was 124.66 kg, up 0.06 kg from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin [11]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair. Mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage. Long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - month contracts, wait and see after closing short positions. For far - month contracts, pay attention to sow inventory changes. For the 2601 contract, the pressure at 12500 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2603 contract, the pressure at 11800 - 12000 is verified, and support is at 11000 - 11200; for the 2605 contract, the pressure at 12200 - 12300 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12000 [13]. Egg - **Important Information**: On October 31, the average egg price in the main production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, stable; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. On October 30, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, stable; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days. On October 31, the average price of old hens was 4.18 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. In September, the number of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. The estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% [17]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported. Mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range. Long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. Wait and see. If inventory levels continue to rise, consider shorting the 2512 contract with pressure at 3180 - 3200. Mid - long - term, determine the trading direction based on culling behavior [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - **螺纹** - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - **热卷** - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Co., Ltd. (000877) emphasizes its commitment to capacity management and reduction in line with national policies, aiming to enhance its core competitiveness while aligning with industry supply-side structural reforms [1] Group 1 - The company strictly adheres to national capacity management policies and is determined to promote capacity reduction [1] - Tianshan Co. is advancing its capacity management work in an orderly manner, taking into account production line conditions, layout, and market demand [1] - The company leverages its advantage of having a wide layout of production lines to optimize its capacity structure primarily through internal capacity utilization [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's Q3 report reveals struggles within the industry cycle, with a revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year and a shift from profit to loss, indicating significant operational challenges amid low milk prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.074 billion yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders turned negative, recording a loss of 10.6145 million yuan, with Q3 net profit dropping 77.60% year-on-year to 11.2418 million yuan [1][2]. - Despite a 1.91% increase in dairy product sales to 226,800 tons, revenue declined, suggesting a potential impact from industry price wars [2]. Cost and Operational Challenges - The company faces cost pressures due to optimizing herd structure, with plans to reduce the number of cattle from 64,800 to 51,900 by September 2025, resulting in short-term costs that erode profits [1][3]. - Bad debt provisions related to student milk and nurturing project milk businesses have further impacted profits, highlighting collection risks [2]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is experiencing systemic shocks, with average fresh milk prices in major producing provinces dropping 3.2% year-on-year, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]. - Tianrun Dairy's gross margin has decreased from 16.76% in 2024 to 16.17% in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges [2]. Competitive Landscape - As a regional dairy company, Tianrun's product structure increases sensitivity to market cycles, with 54% of revenue from ambient dairy products and about 40% from chilled dairy products, both facing intense competition [2]. - The strategy of reducing herd size and focusing on high-yield cows aims to mitigate sensitivity to low milk prices, representing a common approach during industry capacity reduction phases [3]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges include slow recovery in liquid milk demand, high costs during new capacity ramp-up, and unresolved bad debt risks [3]. - The ability to convert capacity upgrades and cost control into competitive advantages will be crucial for Tianrun Dairy to navigate the upcoming industry cycle turning point [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The retail sales growth is slowing down, with both commodity retail and catering revenues performing poorly. Appliance sales are particularly weak due to the cooling real estate market, while only a few categories like sports and entertainment products have seen growth exceeding 10% [1][3][4]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The sector is undergoing a capacity reduction, with a focus on large-scale, low-cost producers like Muyuan and Wens, as well as significant improvements in New Hope [2][34][35]. - **E-commerce and Internet Sector**: Major players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are currently at low levels, with expectations for cloud business growth to accelerate to around 30% in Q3 [22][23]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Retail Sales Performance**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was only 3%, a decline from August. This trend indicates a significant drop in consumer spending since the second half of the year [3][4][8]. - **Weakness in Commodity Retail**: The commodity retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of only 3.3% in September, the lowest for 2025, primarily dragging down overall retail sales [4][5]. - **Challenges in Consumer Market**: The slowing growth of disposable income, which fell to 4.5% in Q3, is a major challenge for the consumer market. Measures to increase income and reduce burdens are necessary to improve consumer confidence [8][9][10]. - **Beverage Industry Performance**: Notable companies like Nongfu Spring are expected to see over 25% growth in Q3, while the Dongfang Shuying brand is projected to grow over 50% [11]. - **Snack Industry Dynamics**: The snack sector, particularly Wei Long's spicy strips, has rebounded, with konjac products maintaining a growth rate of 40-50% [12]. - **Jewelry Sector Trends**: Brands like Chow Tai Fook have benefited from rising gold prices, achieving better-than-expected sales, while established brands have a competitive edge due to their brand strength and design capabilities [13]. - **Cloud and E-commerce Business Outlook**: The cloud business is expected to grow by around 30%, while traditional e-commerce is stabilizing with a projected 10% growth in customer management revenue [23][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Measures for Consumer Confidence**: Key policy measures include reducing burdens related to healthcare and pensions to increase disposable income and improve public service supply [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Alibaba and JD are recommended for their strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, despite current low valuations [22][26][27]. - **Pork Farming Capacity Reduction Logic**: The logic behind capacity reduction in the pork farming sector is strengthening, with a focus on large producers to stabilize prices [34]. - **Hai Da Group's IPO Plans**: Hai Da Group plans to IPO its overseas assets, which is expected to support long-term growth despite potential short-term dilution concerns [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various sectors, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.