Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]