基本面方面，供应端，现有锌价利润刺激矿端投产，增量主要集中在国内。火烧云项目成为影响锌市供 需结构的关键因素，内外原料环境进一步分化，国内冶炼增量潜力大于海外。12月国内部分锌矿山开展 冬季常规检修，锌精矿加工费持续低位，国产矿供应紧张，冶炼厂抢购意愿强烈，部分市场参与者预计 下月国内锌矿加工费将进一步下行。预计2026年一季度TC博弈阶段，不排除出现超预期减产，这或成 为推动锌价上行的催化剂。需求端，1月国内终端企业赶工交付，锌需求有增量预期，沪锌社库连续七 周下降。截至12月31日，上期所库存数据显示，沪锌周度库存续降3170吨至69793吨，创4个月新低，为 锌价提供支撑。但终端消费表现平淡，锌锭出口窗口或偶有开启，进口窗口开启难度较大，且国内地产 疲软制约镀锌、压铸锌消费，目前增长仍依赖外销订单。海外需求在降息预期及基建投资支撑下有望温 和复苏。今日现货市场成交温和上升，持货商高报升水出货，下游按需入场，交投平稳，整体活跃度一 般。 综合来看，锌价反弹仍存压力，短期或仍受宏观面主导，预计沪锌价格核心运行区间在23000 - 24200 元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-566 ...

南华期货（603093）： 宏观上，整体情绪偏暖。基本面上，TC受进口窗口打开影响止跌但是预计会1月保持跌势，不过圣诞假 期致贸易商报价较少，短期国内原料供应依旧偏紧。供应端从长线来看偏宽松，进口窗口有望在LME 持续交仓下打开，且高锌价压制，下游终端消费冷淡。库存方面，出口和减产导致国内库存去库对沪锌 形成支撑。展望未来，国内库存低位支撑价格，但基本面缺乏上行驱动，区间震荡为主。 广州期货： 消息面 1月2日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单97925吨。注销仓单8400吨，减少750吨。锌库存 106325吨，减少1300吨。 1月2日沪锌期货库存录得69793.00吨，较上一交易日减少3170.00吨。 2025年12月精炼锌产量55.21万吨，低于预期，预计2026年1月产量增加至56.94万吨。 机构观点 展望后市，锌价中长期重心预计逐步上移，但受一季度传统淡季制约，短期上方空间有限，预计节后价 格趋于上行后转入区间震荡。 ...

基本面方面，国内精炼锌出口补充海外库存，促使LME升水大幅回落，内外盘面分化程度减轻，沪伦 比回升。进口矿冶炼利润依旧不佳，原料紧缺问题持续，内外锌精矿现货加工费维持低位，凸显供应紧 张局面。然而，需求端表现疲弱，终端淡季及节前消费冷清，现货升水受压，持货商挺价信心略有受 挫。锌价近期涨至高位，下游谨慎观望，消费寥寥，即便元旦假期临近，下游补库动力仍不力，整体交 投乏善可陈。 综合来看，今现锌价格或下跌。 【ccmn.cn摘要】美指反弹与股市下挫双压，隔夜伦锌微跌0.08%；铜锡大跌冲击市场情绪，终端淡季及 节前消费冷清，现货升水受压、补库不力，今现锌或下跌。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌震荡走弱，开盘报3102美元/吨，高点报3146.5美元，低点报3080美 元，尾盘收于3084美元，跌3美元，跌幅0.08%；成交量13418手增加7474手，持仓量228130手增加1079 手。晚间沪锌开盘跳涨后受沪铜大跌拖累，盘面紧随跌势，主力2602合约最新收盘价报23170元/吨，跌 55元，跌幅0.24%。 长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：美指反弹与股市下挫双压，隔夜伦锌微跌0. ...

| | 01 | 周度回顾 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1 | | | 02 | 供给端 | | 目 录 | 03 | 需求端 | | | 04 | 库存变化 | | CONTENTS | | | | | 05 | 宏观扰动 | 周度回顾 供应偏紧需求续弱，沪锌维持 震荡偏强走势 中泰期货· 2025年12月29日 中泰期货研究所 王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 Ø 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | 产业数据 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 锌精矿国产TC(元/金属 | 1600 | 1500 | -100.00 | -6.25% | | | | 世 ) | | | | | 国内锌矿阶段性偏紧持续,锌矿加工费加速下跌,对锌价存在一定底部支撑。 | | | | | | | | 在当前锌矿紧缺背景下,国内12月锌精矿加工费跌势持续。 | | | 国内锌精矿产量(月度) | 33.08 | 31.14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with support at 22,900 yuan/ton and resistance at 23,400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and an amplitude of 1.78%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 23,170 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for the next 18 months. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic smelters' production is expected to decrease significantly. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile and other sectors have some policy - supported highlights. Domestic inventories continue to decline, while LME zinc inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,170 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 0.46% from December 19, 2025. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,086.5 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars/ton or 0.42% from December 18, 2025. The Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [10]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 5,746 lots, an increase of 678 lots from December 19, 2025. The open interest was 200,417 lots, an increase of 6,815 lots or 3.52% from December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Price Spreads**: As of December 26, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025 [19]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 23,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 19, 2025. The spot premium was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 24, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 28.26 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.69 US dollars/ton from December 17, 2025 [25][26]. - **Inventories**: As of December 24, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 106,875 tons, an increase of 9,175 tons or 9.39% from December 17, 2025. As of December 19, 2025, SHFE refined zinc inventories were 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons or 5.66% from last week. As of December 25, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 111,400 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons or 6.15% from December 18, 2025 [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [35]. - **Supply - Side**: - **Global Supply Gap**: In October 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76%. Consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76%. The global refined zinc gap was 600 tons, compared to a gap of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a global zinc market supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [40][41]. - **Production Forecast**: In November 2025, zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. However, production is expected to decline [44]. - **Export Window**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [47]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [50][51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place of real - estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.1786 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [56][57]. - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [62][63]. - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [65]. - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The automobile production volume was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [70].

宏观层面，周四圣诞假期致使市场活跃度降低，美元指数下跌、股市集体收涨与油价下跌等多空因素并 存，市场风险偏好氛围飘忽不定。同时，市场对美联储领导层更迭保持谨慎。特朗普计划于2026年初宣 布下任美联储主席提名人选，以接替即将卸任的鲍威尔，期望新主席能推动更多降息。尽管降息利好风 险资产，但过程充满不确定性，资金因此选择谨慎操作，且受假期影响，资金倾向于高位获利了结，锌 价承压下行。 基本面，进口锌精矿加工费持续下跌，国内锌精矿加工费也快速下行、区域价差拉大，多数地区供应紧 张，矿山复产进度迟缓，国内冬储货源短缺。锌矿加工费快速下滑增加了冶炼厂生产压力，凸显当前供 应收缩预期较强。不过，年末市场对后续走向存忧、现货市场年底关账商家增多，贸易商以出货为主， 主力月升水小幅下调，下游采购意愿弱致现货成交差。 综合分析，宏观氛围平淡且美元走弱限制了锌价跌幅，但国内年末效应凸显，下游备货意愿一般，镀锌 消费疲软、合金消费尚有韧性，原料采购谨慎，短期基本面驱动力不足，且海外处于圣诞休市期，预计 锌价将延续区间震荡态势，今日现锌价格或下跌。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 新浪合作大平台 ...

Group 1 - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed weak performance, with the main contract closing at 23,090 CNY/ton, up 15 CNY, a 0.07% increase from the previous settlement price of 23,075 CNY/ton [1] - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 main contract was 133,845 lots, a decrease of 579 lots, while the open interest increased by 2,495 lots to 93,107 lots [1] - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,084.5 USD, an increase of 6.5 USD [1] Group 2 - Domestic spot zinc prices experienced a slight decline, with the average price for 0 zinc reported at 23,100 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY, and 1 zinc at 23,020 CNY/ton, also down 40 CNY [1][2] - The current domestic social inventory of zinc has decreased to 76,000 tons, marking a four-month low, which provides some support for zinc prices [3] - The demand side remains weak, particularly in the galvanizing industry, where operational levels are declining due to environmental restrictions and poor end-user demand, leading to a subdued market for zinc [3]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation and interest rate cut expectations are in a tug-of-war, leading to a stable overnight performance in zinc prices, with tight supply and declining processing fees impacting the market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight London zinc showed weak fluctuations, closing at $3078 per ton, with a trading volume of 7997 lots, a decrease of 497 lots, and an open interest increase of 449 lots to 227,461 lots [1]. - The Shanghai zinc market also experienced weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 23,025 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan, a decline of 0.22% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic and international ore supply is tightening, with processing fees reduced by 1250 yuan per metal ton since early September, indicating a reality of supply tightness [2]. - The actual output of smelters in November did not meet expectations due to raw material supply constraints and low processing fees affecting profits, with further production declines expected in December [2]. - Domestic social inventory continues to decrease, providing support for zinc prices, but demand remains lackluster, particularly in the galvanizing sector where operating rates are average [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Environmental policies in northern regions are restricting the operation of heavy trucks below the National VI standard, leading to extended raw material and finished product turnover cycles, which is expected to keep operating levels stable [2]. - In the die-casting zinc alloy sector, poor end-user demand has resulted in inventory buildup, with high zinc prices suppressing consumption and downstream buyers only maintaining essential purchases [2].

长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：国际油价跌幅扩大与全球股市低迷共振施压，隔夜 伦锌三连跌1.94%，收报3035美元/吨； 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布的数据显示，11月美国非农就业增长强于预期，但失业率上升至 4.6%，且新增岗位主要集中在医疗保健等非周期性行业。行业分析师认为，报告数据内部分化，暗示 经济周期性动能依然有限，市场预计美联储短期内对进一步降息将持谨慎态度。隔夜美国股市全线下挫 打压市场风险偏好，锌价承压下调。 基本面方面，国内11月锌精矿产量为31.14万吨，较10月减少1.94万吨。北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产阶 段，国产矿供应持续收紧。同时，内外比价不佳导致锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减。11月后，冶炼厂 有原料备货需求，对国产矿抢购情绪高涨，推动锌矿加工费快速下调。截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至 1600元/金属吨，进口矿加工费也有所回落，降至50.56美元/干吨。考虑到国产矿处于季节性淡季，预计 明年一季度前矿端整体供应将偏紧。截至11月底，冶炼厂原料库存降至37.7万金属吨，库存可用天数为 20.8天，较前几个月明显下滑。此外，国内锌锭库存持续下降，上期所数据显示 ...

2025年12月15日上海期货交易所期锌库存50703吨，较上一交易日库存减少579吨。其中上海地区库存0 吨，持平；广东地区库存28524吨，减少378吨；江苏地区74吨，增加74吨；浙江地区0吨，持平；天津 地区22105吨，减少275吨。 分析观点： 期货市场上看，12月16日收盘，沪锌期货主力合约报23030.00元/吨，跌幅1.62%，最高触及23345.00元/ 吨，最低下探22935.00元/吨，日内成交量达138540手。 【市场资讯】 12月15日，LME锌库存录得6.45万吨，较上一日增加2550吨，增加幅度为4.12%；最近一周，LME锌库 存累计增加6725.00吨，增加幅度为11.65%；最近一个月，LME锌库存累计增加2.55万吨，增加幅度为 65.43%。 周一(12月15日)，上海0#锌主流成交价集中在23445~23650元/吨，对2601合约升水200-210元/吨。 (12月16日)全国锌价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:0#锌锭;牌号:Zn99.995; | ...