数据显示，11月26日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22400.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（22355.00元/吨） 升水45.0元/吨。 11月25日，上期所锌期货仓单73819吨，环比上个交易日增加922吨。 （11月26日）全国锌价格一览表 分析观点： | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22450元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22450元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22190元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | 火炬 0#锌 | 22650元/吨 | 市场价 | 浙江省/金华市 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | 飞龙 0#锌 | 22500元/吨 | 市场价 | 浙江省/台州市 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | 红鹭 0#锌 | 22500元/吨 | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]

据国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）报告，今年8月全球锌矿产量为109.76万吨，环比增加2.2%，同比增加 13.1%；1—8月累计产量为830.5万吨，同比增长6.5%。10月该机构预计今年全球锌矿产量将同比增长 4.6%，至1251万吨。从全球角度看，锌矿供应总体是偏宽松的。 国内10月锌精矿产量为33.08万吨，较9月回升约1.6万吨，同比增长12.3%；1—10月累计产量为305.8万 吨，同比降幅为2.4%。从短期来看，我国锌矿供应有明显收紧倾向，加工费快速下移。相关数据显 示，截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至2600元/金属吨，较8月的高点下降了1300元/金属吨。内外锌矿比 价持续低位运行，冶炼厂积极抢购国产矿。 10月下旬后，锌价重心逐步上移。受供给端出现积极变化影响，冶炼厂抢购国产矿情绪浓厚，锌矿供应 边际收紧，海外锌价坚挺也提供了一定支撑。 国内方面，据行业统计机构数据，10月我国精炼锌产量为61.72万吨，同比增长约21%；1—10月累计产 量为568.6万吨，同比增长10%。进入11月，锌矿供应紧张格局凸显，在利润压力下部分冶炼厂可能缩 减产量。不过副产品硫酸价格处于高位，冶炼厂大多通过技术 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, zinc prices may be under pressure due to factors such as weak consumption and the Fed's hawkish remarks dampening rate - cut expectations. Previous short positions can be held. [3] - In the medium - to - long term, the mine end remains tight, processing fees are likely to fall rather than rise, refinery operations may decline, and combined with export expectations, there is strong support below the zinc price. After a correction, long positions can be considered. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Zinc prices showed an oscillatory decline. The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.66% to 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract fell by 1.30% to 22,425 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 1.70% to 3,014.5 US dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 TC Continues to Fall, Focus on Ingot - End Operation 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of November 14, the inventory of imported zinc ore at Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports decreased by 43,000 tons to 305,700 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance range for the purchase US - dollar processing fee of imported zinc concentrate before the end of the first quarter of 2026 at 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. [30] - As of November 13, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,398 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. [37] - Both domestic and imported TC for zinc concentrate continued to decline. [38] 3.2.2 Refined Zinc - Due to the oscillatory decline of zinc prices and the fall of TC, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 13, the production profit was - 1,338 yuan/ton. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in November will slightly decline to around 610,000 tons. [47] - The import profit window for refined zinc remained closed. As of November 14, the import profit was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons. [51] 3.3 Environmental Restrictions Lifted, Galvanizing Operation Rate Rebounds - The galvanizing operation rate increased by 2.46 percentage points to 57.59%. The operation of enterprises affected by environmental restrictions has basically recovered. In terms of demand, the demand in the north is relatively flat, while that in the south is relatively strong, and export orders are relatively stable due to tariff negotiations. [57] - The raw material inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased due to high - level oscillatory zinc prices and large - scale enterprises' demand for long - term order goods. The finished product inventory also increased. [60][61] 3.4 Poor Demand, Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Operation Rate Declines - The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.64% to 23,165 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.63% to 23,715 yuan/ton. [70] - The die - casting zinc alloy operation rate decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 50.3%. Some enterprises reduced production due to poor demand. [73] - The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased as enterprises reduced spot purchases and consumed long - term orders at the beginning of the month. The finished product inventory increased as production and shipment slowed down. [76][77] 3.5 Slower Shipment, Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory Continues to Accumulate - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.92% to 21,500 yuan/ton. [83] - The operation rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 56.31%. Some northern enterprises were affected by environmental protection. In the terminal market, the tire factory's purchase of rubber - grade zinc oxide is relatively stable, but there is caution about the future tire export market. [86] - The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises increased as some enterprises received raw material shipments. The finished product inventory slightly increased due to high - zinc - price - induced downstream wait - and - see sentiment and slower shipment. [89] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Continues to Improve 3.6.1 Inventory Status - As of November 13, the SMM zinc ingot inventory in three locations was 148,800 tons, showing a slight decline. The inventory in the bonded area was 3,800 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [96] - As of November 14, the SHFE inventory was 100,900 tons, showing an increase. As of November 13, the LME inventory was 39,000 tons, continuing to rise. [99] 3.6.2 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From March to September 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance of zinc showed fluctuations, with some months having a surplus and others a deficit. For example, in September 2025, the supply - demand balance was - 0.20 million tons. [105]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on zinc, dated November 14, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown led to a recovery in risk appetite, but the increased policy divergence within the Fed and the hawkish shift of dovish voting members dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Base metals on the outer market collectively declined, dragging down the center of Shanghai zinc to 22,425 yuan/ton, erasing the early-week gains. The correlations between the US dollar, the RMB, and LME zinc were 98% and 89% respectively this week, compared with 10% and 13% last week. The Shanghai-London ratio repaired to 7.40 at a low level, with the exchange ratio at 1.00. The pattern of a stronger outer market and a weaker domestic market persisted, with the import loss remaining above 4,000 yuan per ton. The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports. Near the delivery this week, the market delivery volume increased, while downstream consumption was flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. The domestic social inventory fluctuated narrowly around 160,000 tons. The premium of the Shanghai market over the December contract was 100 yuan/ton, Tianjin reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton over December, and Guangdong reported a discount of 60 yuan/ton over the December contract, narrowing the Shanghai-Guangdong spread. In terms of positions, both long and short positions held by investment companies or credit institutions decreased, with the net short position decreasing by 3,672 lots. The warrant holding report showed a bullish trend, and the concentration of large positions was low [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, the remarks of Fed officials dominated the expectations. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December dropped to 51.6%, with the probabilities of a cut and no cut almost equal, and market sentiment shifted. Since November, there have been successive deliveries at LME zinc warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. As of the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120, alleviating the tight supply situation. In China, the reduction of production at northern mines and the concentrated release of winter stockpiling demand by smelters led to a shortage of domestic ore supply. The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously. The SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and the imported ore TC decreased by 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton. The decline in TC squeezed the smelting profit, but the sulfuric acid price still rose steadily. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month-on-month. With the end of the peak season downstream and frequent environmental protection warnings, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak, and the orders for galvanized and die-cast zinc were relatively light, making it difficult to boost the consumption side. Overall, as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation, the market's assessment of the impact will be more cautious, and LME zinc will maintain a high-level shock. Against the background of the realization of increased exports in China, the supply-demand pattern has improved marginally. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight ore logic on zinc prices, but it is still constrained by the previous high of 22,800 yuan. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [9] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously: Due to the winter reduction and shutdown of mines and the winter stockpiling demand of smelters, the processing fees for zinc ore continued to decline under the tight ore supply pattern. The average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive processing fee for zinc concentrate (after a 2/8 split) was 4,160 yuan/ton. The SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 US dollars/dry ton to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. One ton of zinc produces two tons of acid as a by-product. The mainstream transaction price of 98% sulfuric acid in the East China market was 920 - 1,130 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 98% smelting acid was 780 - 870 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in the price of raw material sulfur supported the stable increase of the sulfuric acid price from the cost side [18] - The overall refined zinc output in November may decline slightly: According to SMM, in October, China's refined zinc output increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to October increased by 10% year-on-year, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in November will decline by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the cumulative output from January to November 2025 will increase by more than 10% year-on-year [18] - The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports: In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.61%. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.27%. The export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons. The processing fees showed signs of stopping rising, increasing the production pressure on smelters. The overall performance of the peak season in consumption was not obvious, and the consumption support was insufficient. The social inventory increased to more than 160,000 tons. With the outer market stronger than the domestic market, the import loss of zinc ingots was more than 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opened. The export volume of zinc ingots by domestic smelters and traders increased to about 10,000 tons, and the import volume was mainly from long-term contracts [19] Demand Side - The operating rate of galvanizing was recorded at 57.59%, a month-on-month increase of 2.46%. The raw material inventory of galvanizing was 13,530 tons, and the finished product inventory was 365,600 tons. There were not many policies related to real estate and infrastructure during the peak season this year, and the improvement in project construction was limited. Orders for towers and photovoltaics showed some improvement. In the fourth quarter, it entered the seasonal off-season, and it was difficult for consumption to improve. Downstream traders purchased on a just-in-time basis, and there was no obvious improvement in enterprise orders. In November, the heating season began in the northern region, and environmental protection inspections increased, restricting the construction progress. Overall, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak. There may be a rush to complete projects before the Spring Festival, and the demand will be slightly postponed. The operating rate in the fourth quarter improved month-on-month but was weaker than the same period last year [20] - The operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was recorded at 50.30%, a month-on-month decline of 0.65%. The raw material inventory of die-cast zinc was 11,840 tons, and the finished product inventory was 11,290 tons. The overall downstream demand was relatively light. The demand for traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals was weak, and the overall demand for real estate hardware orders was also relatively light. The increase in aluminum and copper prices pushed up the production cost of alloys, and the net profit of enterprises shrank from the beginning of the year to less than 100 yuan/ton. Under this influence, there was also a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream [20] - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was recorded at 56.31%, a month-on-month decline of 1.32%. The raw material inventory of zinc oxide was 2,365 tons, and the finished product inventory was 6,075 tons. In the rubber-grade zinc oxide sector, the orders from large tire factories were relatively stable, but the demand from some small and medium-sized enterprises was weak. In the ceramic-grade zinc oxide market, the demand in the coarse ceramic market was still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises reported that the demand in the high-end ceramic-grade zinc oxide sector had also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed-grade and electronic-grade zinc oxide was relatively normal [21] Spot Market - Domestic inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons to 157,900 tons: As of November 13, the total inventory of SMM's seven major zinc ingot markets was 157,900 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from November 6 and a decrease of 1,700 tons from November 10, indicating a decrease in domestic inventory. Affected by the continuous opening of the export window and the reduction of arrivals at warehouses due to smelter production cuts, the inventory in the Shanghai area decreased significantly during the week. In the Guangdong area, downstream consumption was relatively flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. At the same time, near the delivery, the market delivery volume increased, driving a slight increase in inventory. Overall, the inventory in the original three major markets decreased by 2,000 tons, and the inventory in the seven major markets decreased by 1,700 tons [22] - LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 2,050 tons: Since November, there have been successive deliveries at warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The zinc price is supported by the temporary tightening of the ore end and exports but is restricted by weak consumption. In the short term, it will fluctuate within the upper - middle track of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Data**: For different delivery months of SHFE zinc (2511, 2512, 2601), prices decreased slightly. The main contract 2512 closed at 22,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan with a 0.18% decline. The trading volume decreased while the open interest increased by 528 lots to 113,005 lots [7]. - **LME Inventory**: As of November 11, LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, an increase of 1,475 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash - 3M spread dropped to 117.04B, and the supply shortage eased [7]. - **Domestic Zinc Mine**: Northern domestic mines have seasonal production cuts, and some mines control production actively after completing their annual plans. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has weakened month - on - month, squeezing smelting profits, but the sulfuric acid price is still rising [7]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: The peak consumption season is ending, and environmental protection warnings are frequent, so consumption is hard to boost. The export window is open, increasing zinc exports, and domestic social inventory has dropped below 160,000 tons [7]. 2. Industry News - **Zinc Transaction Prices**: On November 12, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,690 - 22,755 yuan/ton, and different brands had different transaction price ranges and premium/discount situations in different markets such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8] 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [11][13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current problems on the zinc supply side exceed those on the demand side. In November, domestic apparent demand declined compared to October, in line with seasonality, and cumulative consumption year-on-year remained stable. On the supply side, with high production from domestic smelters, there is a shortage of ore. Due to limited overseas ore increments next year and the winter storage and low internal - external price ratio, ore traders are holding back supplies and pushing up prices. Both internal and external processing fees have declined more than expected, forcing domestic smelters to cut production. November production is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month, but there may be a decline in December [3]. - The issue of short - squeeze with low LME inventories has not been completely resolved. This week, LME inventories remained the same as last week. With the export window on the futures market not open, domestic exports are limited [3]. - Given the expected production cuts by domestic smelters, the non - resumption of overseas smelters, and the non - accumulation of global inventories, institutions and foreign investors increased long positions and reduced short positions last week, leading to a relatively strong rebound in zinc prices [3]. - Macroscopically, overseas, on November 10, the US Senate obtained enough votes to end the government shutdown, and the government is expected to reopen within 1 - 2 weeks, injecting liquidity into the market and providing short - term support for non - ferrous metal prices. In China, the situation of weak reality and strong expectations continues. October PMI and import - export data were weak, but there were differences in performance among industries and enterprises of different scales [3]. - Looking at the subsequent fundamentals, the increase in Xinjiang, China, is the biggest variable. Even if there are problems with zinc ingot production, there is a possibility of selling ore externally. Additionally, the internal - external price difference continues to widen, and it is only a matter of time before zinc ingot exports balance the internal and external markets. Therefore, it is believed that zinc prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, but in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is appropriate [3]. - In terms of structure, the low LME inventories are unlikely to end in the short term, and overseas smelters may not resume production until next year. The best time to enter an internal - external reverse arbitrage has not yet arrived [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Balance Sheet - Based on the latest resumption and new production arrangements of smelters, the monthly production from October to December has been slightly adjusted downward [4]. - Considering seasonal patterns in the first quarter of 2026, in terms of exports, it is expected to return to a net - import state as the export window closes. However, given the possible reduction of long - term zinc ingot import contracts next year, a low import volume is estimated [4]. - From the perspective of the domestic monthly balance, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of 2026 will continue to increase [4]. 3.2 Main News - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in the third quarter of 2025 was 244,200 tons, 8% higher than the same period in 2025. The total self - owned zinc production in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Glencore's self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 950,000 - 975,000 tons [6]. - Penoles' zinc concentrate production in the third quarter of 2025 was 63,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Its zinc production was 45,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9% [6]. - The Phase I mining project of Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started with an investment of 830 million yuan. After reaching full production and stabilizing, it is expected to increase annual operating income by over 400 million yuan [6]. - On October 30, the LME announced plans to formulate permanent rules, including restricting members with large positions in near - term contracts and expanding the scope of position restrictions for more immediate delivery positions like "tom - next". The consultation will be open until November 21 [6]. 3.3 Zinc Concentrate Production - In September 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. The cumulative production from January to September was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.96% [7]. - Since late September, the domestic zinc concentrate TC quotation has declined rapidly. This week, the average was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/metal ton [7]. - This week, the import zinc concentrate processing fee index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17 US dollars/dry ton. Recently, import ore traders have significantly pressured prices, and some zinc - rich ore was traded at 80 - 90 US dollars/dry ton [7]. 3.4 Zinc Concentrate Import - According to customs data, in September 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative import volume from January to September was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.50% [9]. - The main import sources were Australia (25.2%), Peru (14%), Oman (11.1%), etc. Imports from Oman and Australia increased significantly, while those from Peru, Mexico, and Russia decreased to varying degrees [9]. - As of November 6, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 1,596 yuan/ton, narrowing by 127 yuan/ton compared to last week [10]. - As of November 7, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons. Although the import window for zinc concentrate is closed, due to the high demand of domestic smelters, the quantity of imported ore arriving at ports has not decreased significantly, and port inventories have remained at a high level [12][13]. 3.5 Zinc Smelter Production - In October 2025, SMM refined zinc production increased by 17,100 tons month - on - month to 617,200 tons, 5,500 tons lower than expected [18]. - In November, some northern smelters had a faster decline in raw material inventory due to fierce competition for domestic ore and may cut production more than expected. However, with the continued launch of new production capacity and the resumption of smelters that underwent maintenance in October, overall refined zinc production in November is expected to be roughly flat month - on - month [18]. - Recently, smelter profits have significantly declined, but the sulfuric acid price has clearly rebounded since late October. With the support of sulfuric acid and by - product revenues, smelters still have a certain profit margin [18]. - In October, the raw material inventory days of domestic smelters decreased by 4 days to 22.1 days. With relatively low pressure on smelters to maintain production at the end of this year, if the TC continues to decline in December, the possibility of production cuts in December will increase [19]. 3.6 Refined Zinc Import and Export - In September 2025, China imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. The main import countries were Kazakhstan (78%) and Iran (8%), and the main export countries were Indonesia (55%) and Vietnam (20%) [23]. - As of last Friday, the Shanghai - London ratio slightly rebounded to 7.42222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the spot price of zinc oscillated upward, with the benchmark spot price reaching 22,650 yuan/ton on November 7, a 1.66% increase from October 30. In the futures market, the main zinc contract also trended upward, closing at 22,720 yuan/ton with a weekly gain of 1.63%. The current open interest of the main - month contract is around 112,500 lots [8]. - **Macro - environment**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur led to a series of agreements on tariffs and export controls, showing signs of trade friction mitigation. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in December is uncertain, pending inflation and employment data after the US government reopens. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal brings new development opportunities to the new energy and new materials sectors [8]. - **Supply**: Limited domestic zinc concentrate increments have caused a decline in spot processing fees. There is an increasing expectation of production cuts and shutdowns in November. Some northern mines have actively controlled production after completing their annual plans, leading to a temporary tightness in zinc ore supply and concerns about a contraction in refined zinc output [8]. - **Demand**: Seasonal weakness in demand persists. With the arrival of the construction off - season in the north, the operating rates of downstream industries such as galvanizing and zinc die - casting may further decline, and the pattern of spot discounts is difficult to reverse. Specifically, the estimated operating rate of zinc oxide manufacturers remains stable at about 51%, a Tianjin zinc oxide plant affected by environmental protection controls is expected to resume production next week; the estimated operating rate of the zinc alloy industry next week is 54%, with downstream raw material purchases only meeting rigid demand and new orders at the beginning of next month falling short of expectations; the operating rate of galvanized sheets is expected to continue to recover to about 63% [8]. - **Inventory**: Overall inventory is at a low level. As of November 6, LME zinc delivery inventory was reported at 34,100 tons, and SHFE inventory was 69,300 tons, showing a differentiated inventory level [8]. - **Summary**: The macro - sentiment is cautiously recovering. Overseas zinc ingots remain in short supply, and the export window will remain open in November. The cost support from processing fees and weak downstream demand create a tug - of - war for zinc prices, resulting in a wide - range oscillating trend [8]. - **Strategy**: Conduct range trading for the zn2601 contract, with a reference operating range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, or buy out - of - the - money call options [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Hot News**: US ADP data showed that private - sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 22,000 and the largest increase since July 2025. However, the September data was revised downward to a decrease of 32,000. This strong data alleviated market concerns about the weak labor market. This week, both the smelting and downstream sectors were affected. Tight raw materials and falling processing fees put pressure on many smelting enterprises, which have started production cuts. Northern downstream enterprises' operations and shipments were affected by environmental protection controls, leading to tightened raw material purchases. The spot market continued with a pattern of small - volume rigid - demand transactions. Traders actively bought export - eligible zinc ingot sources, driving up the premiums of some zinc ingot brands in Shanghai and Tianjin. Overseas, LME zinc inventory hit a new low again. Under the dominance of long - position funds, domestic and international zinc prices trended strongly this week. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of zinc ingot exports and overseas warehousing [7]. - **Influence Factor Prediction**: The supply expectation is fluctuating (neutral), downstream demand is weak (bearish), inventory is differentiated (neutral), export expectation is good (bullish), market sentiment has no impact (neutral), cost - profit has no impact (bullish), and the macro - environment has no impact (neutral). Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure The zinc industry chain includes zinc ore, scrap zinc, refined zinc (including fire - refined zinc and electrolytic zinc), and downstream products such as zinc die - casting alloys, zinc - based alloys, galvanized products, zinc oxide, etc. Downstream applications cover various fields such as toys, hardware, construction, and automotive [11]. 3.3. Term Market The report presents multiple charts related to futures and spot prices, including active - contract futures closing prices, settlement prices, LME 3 - month zinc futures closing prices, refined zinc prices, and London zinc ingot spot prices, with data sources from WIND and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [15][19][25][33]. 3.4. Inventory The report shows charts of inventory data, including SHFE inventory, LME inventory, zinc finished - product inventory, zinc spot inventory, zinc ore port inventory, and zinc ore raw - material inventory days, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [35][40][46]. 3.5. Supply The supply - side content includes charts of global and domestic zinc ore production, zinc ore imports, zinc ore prices, zinc concentrate processing fees, refined zinc prices, refined zinc operating rates, global and Chinese refined zinc production, and refined zinc imports and exports, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [50][53][56][59][65][70]. 3.6. Demand - **Downstream Product Data**: The report provides production and operating - rate data for downstream products such as galvanized sheets, zinc alloys, and zinc oxide from June 2024 to February 2025, as well as charts of consumption structure, zinc ingot apparent and actual consumption, galvanized sheet production and operating rates, zinc alloy production and operating rates, zinc oxide operating rates and prices, and terminal - demand data for real estate, home appliances, and the automotive industry, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [74][75][80][84][90][94][99]. - **2025 Supply - Demand Balance**: The report presents the supply - demand balance data for 2025, including production, imports, exports, net imports, total supply, apparent consumption, ending inventory, inventory changes, total demand, and supply - demand balance for each month [113]. 3.7. Others - **Price and Ratio**: The report includes charts of the Shanghai - London price ratio, zinc ingot main - contract basis, sulfuric acid prices, and zinc alloy prices, with data sources from Steel Union Data and the Hualian Futures Research Institute [104][108].