长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：美伊核谈前夕，市场观望情绪浓且油价下滑，隔夜 伦锌续跌0.61%，收报3367美元/吨； 宏观层面，美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比周四称，预计今年晚些时候将降息数次，属较为"乐 观"的美联储决策者，但他也强调美联储需"谨慎"行动，以防经济和通胀过热。此外，日内瓦湖畔的第 三轮美伊间接谈判备受全球金融市场关注。调解方阿曼外交大臣会谈后释放积极信号，称双方取得"重 大进展"，并计划下周在维也纳展开技术讨论。此表态虽让市场紧张情绪有所缓解，但也使油价供应收 紧的担忧放缓，油价震荡下跌。 【ccmn.cn摘要】美伊核谈前夕市场观望情绪浓且油价下滑，隔夜伦锌续跌0.61%；国内锌矿加工费偏 低，供需错配致累库延续、现货升水下调，今现锌或下跌。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌偏弱震荡，开盘报3388美元/吨，高点报3398.5美元，低点报3338美 元，尾盘收于3367美元，跌20美元，跌幅0.61%；成交量9909手增加204手，持仓量230101手增加616 手。晚间沪锌宽幅震荡，尾盘冲高乏力转跌，主力2604合约最新收盘价报24570元/吨，跌10元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of strong U.S. employment data and declining London zinc inventories on zinc prices, with London zinc rising by 0.59% to close at $3,418 per ton [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations of 70,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, indicating a robust labor market [1] - Domestic market conditions are weak as the Chinese New Year approaches, with both trader quotes and downstream purchasing intentions declining, leading to subdued spot transactions and stable premiums [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai zinc market is expected to experience limited changes, with social inventories continuing to accumulate and downstream factories beginning to enter holiday mode, resulting in weakened trading momentum [2] - Analysts suggest that with the upcoming Chinese New Year, market participation is likely to decrease, and it may be prudent for downstream buyers to consider stocking up at lower prices [2] - Short-term fluctuations in zinc prices are anticipated, with support levels projected between 23,500 and 24,500 yuan per ton, as market sentiment remains cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in zinc prices this week was due to the cross - variety liquidity shock caused by the weakening of precious metals and the fundamental risks previously highlighted. The demand support in the zinc market in the first quarter is not strong, and there is an overvaluation risk when zinc prices are above 25,000 yuan/ton [3]. - From the perspective of fundamentals and market sentiment, zinc prices may continue to decline weakly before the Spring Festival, but the current price drop may help build momentum for the peak season market after the festival [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, short - term zinc supply continues to be marginally loose. The arrival volume of domestic zinc ore in January was high, and port inventories reached a three - month high. Some domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the planned zinc ingot production in February is expected to decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month [3]. - On the downstream side, the decline in prices has marginally improved the willingness to purchase, but the procurement intensity of leading enterprises has not met market expectations. Downstream enterprises have entered the seasonal shutdown cycle for the Spring Festival, and the weighted operating rate has returned to the historical seasonal level. It is predicted that the peak inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly in late March [3]. - In terms of price, the current profit margin of smelters provides cost support at around 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of the internal - external price ratio, it is expected that the structure of weak domestic and strong external markets will continue in the first quarter. The uncertainty of European natural gas prices has postponed the expectation of overseas smelter复产, and some mines have lowered their production plans in Q4 2025, which provides continuous support for the external market. There is also a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The decline in zinc prices was due to precious metal weakness and fundamental risks. Before the Spring Festival, zinc prices may continue to decline, but it may benefit the post - festival market. The short - term supply is loose, and downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The expected peak inventory during the Spring Festival is about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March. The cost support is around 23,000 yuan/ton, and the internal - external price ratio may maintain a weak domestic and strong external structure [3]. 3.2 Historical Spring Festival Data - The relationship between inventory reduction time and zinc price trends is not significant, and it mainly depends on long - term supply - demand logic. Zinc prices mostly decline during the Spring Festival. Historically, the first quarter is often at a relatively high price level, and the sharp decline in pre - festival zinc prices this year may improve downstream purchasing willingness and increase the probability of rapid post - festival inventory reduction [4]. 3.3 Monthly Balance Sheet - It is estimated that the zinc ingot production in January 2026 will be about 532,000 tons, and there will be a small - scale maintenance in February, with a planned month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the zinc ingot export volume increased significantly in November and December 2025. In 2026, a low import volume is expected. It is predicted that the peak inventory of domestic zinc ingot social inventory during the Spring Festival will reach 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline rapidly from March to April [5]. 3.4 Main Industry News - Antamina's 2026 production guidance was further reduced by 70,000 metal tons. MMG's zinc ore production in Q4 2025 increased by 2% year - on - year. Glencore's 2025 zinc production increased by 7% year - on - year, and its 2026 production guidance is 700,000 - 740,000 tons. Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine announced a public tender for the sale of 50,000 tons of lead - zinc ore [7]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - In December 2025, domestic zinc concentrate production was 287,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.58% and a year - on - year increase of 5.85%. The cumulative production from January to December was 3.657 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The production in January 2026 is expected to be 292,600 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized since late December, with an average of 1,500 yuan/metal ton this week. The import zinc concentrate processing fee index is 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the import profit of zinc ore has dropped to a small loss [10]. 3.6 Zinc Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 462,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 5.3305 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.1%. The main import sources are Peru, Australia, and South Africa. Due to the arrival cycle, the import volume in December decreased, but it is expected to increase significantly in January. As of February 4, 2026, the import profit and loss of zinc concentrate was - 64 yuan/ton, and the zinc ore import window has been closed since January 26 [14]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of January 29, the weekly inventory of seven major ports was 377,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons, reaching a three - month high. The arrival volume of zinc concentrate decreased significantly in December, but it increased again in early January after the import window opened in late December [18]. 3.8 Zinc Smelter Production - In January 2026, SMM's refined zinc production in China increased by 8,500 tons month - on - month to 560,600 tons, slightly lower than the initial expectation. The raw material inventory days of domestic smelters in January increased by 1.4 days to 23.7 days. Although the processing fee has only stopped falling and remains at a low level since December, the significant increase in zinc prices in January has repaired the smelter's profit. It is expected that the domestic zinc ingot production in February will decrease by 52,000 - 57,000 tons month - on - month, and the production level is basically the same as that in January after excluding the difference in the number of days in the month. The actual demand will be the key to maintaining the smelter's profit, which needs to be verified during the post - Spring Festival peak season [24]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Import - In December 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of refined zinc and exported 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The main import countries are Kazakhstan and Iran, and the main export destinations are Taiwan, China, Singapore, and Hong Kong. The domestic zinc ingot spot export window has been closed since mid - December, and the import loss has expanded as of February 5. It is expected that the pattern of tight external and loose internal markets will continue in the first half of 2026, and there is a possibility that the zinc ingot export window may open again [27]. 3.10 Downstream Zinc Processing - The weighted operating rate of domestic zinc downstream primary processing enterprises this week was 39.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.16 percentage points, returning to the historical seasonal level. The average holiday days of downstream enterprises are 22 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year. All enterprises will resume work from late February to early March [29]. - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises on February 5 was 38.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. The average holiday days of 34 galvanizing sample enterprises are 20 days, an increase of 1 day year - on - year, and they will resume production from late February to early March [31]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises on February 5 was 42.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The average holiday days of 20 die - casting zinc alloy sample enterprises are 23.1 days, an increase of 1.1 days year - on - year, and they will resume work around the eighth day of the first lunar month or the Lantern Festival [39]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises on February 5 was 50.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 percentage points. The raw material inventory decreased to the historical low level, and the finished product inventory increased to the historical high level. The industry shows obvious differentiation in holiday arrangements, and the downstream orders also show structural differences [45]. 3.11 Domestic Inventory - As of January 30, the total inventory of refined zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,997 tons. As of February 5, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot social inventory was 133,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,700 tons. It is expected that the domestic market will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period during the Spring Festival, with a peak inventory of about 210,000 tons, and the inventory will start to decline in late March [52]. 3.12 LME Inventory - LME inventory has been increasing in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung warehouses since late October. It reached a recent peak of 112,300 tons on January 19 and then continued to decline slightly. As of February 5, the LME inventory was 107,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,950 tons. The LME cancellation warrant ratio rose to a three - month high, with 13,275 tons of cancelled warrants. The global visible inventory this week was 234,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,200 tons, showing a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [55]. 3.13 Structure & Arbitrage - Since late January, the domestic spot price has been at a slight discount to the Shanghai zinc main contract. On Thursday this week, the average price in Shanghai was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main 2603 contract, a narrowing of 25 yuan/ton compared with last week. The Contango structure of Shanghai zinc has significantly converged. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4 - 7 inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [59]. - The outer market has returned to the Contango structure since mid - December. As of February 5, the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of 20.75 US dollars/ton, and the discount range is narrowing. In the case of continuous inventory reduction overseas, the LME market shows an abnormal convex structure, and a positive arbitrage strategy can be considered [62]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the market concentration has increased slightly recently, and there is one position with a 30 - 39% warrant holding [63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a decline in the US stock market, the weakening US dollar provides price support for zinc, with a slight increase in London zinc prices by 0.14% [1][2] - The domestic TC (treatment charge) remains low, and the supply tightness in the mining sector persists, which supports zinc prices [1][2] - The market sentiment is cautious due to the potential delay of non-farm payroll data caused by the US government shutdown, leading to a lack of macroeconomic guidance [2] Group 2 - The zinc concentrate market is expected to tighten initially and then loosen by 2025, as overseas mines recover and new mines come online, leading to a rise in TC and a shift in industry profits towards the smelting sector [2] - Domestic northern mines are undergoing seasonal maintenance, which has closed the import window due to the low Shanghai-London zinc price ratio, prompting smelters to rely on domestic ore [2] - Despite a strong demand for raw materials from smelters, the upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to increased holidays and reduced operating rates, putting pressure on zinc prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The weakening of the US dollar and the Middle - East crisis have led to a rise in zinc prices, but high prices have dampened downstream procurement enthusiasm, causing the spot premium to decline [4] - The fundamentals are relatively strong. Although it is gradually entering the consumption off - season, there is no inventory accumulation trend in social inventories [4] - Domestic zinc ore supply remains weak, but winter reserve inventory of domestic smelters is basically completed due to imported ore supplements [4] - Imported ore continues to decline. Before the new - year Benchmark is signed, it is difficult for the imported ore TC to rise [4] - Comprehensive smelting is still facing losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is unlikely to appear [4] - Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, zinc price valuation is still low, and the callback space of zinc prices is limited even if short - term sentiment weakens [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$30.81 per ton [1] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton [1] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,300 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 500 yuan/ton to 25,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 24,920 yuan/ton and closes at 25,605 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume for the whole trading day is 284,497 lots, and the holding volume is 118,199 lots [2] - The highest intraday price reaches 25,645 yuan/ton, and the lowest reaches 24,820 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven SMM regions is 116,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period [3] - As of January 28, 2026, the LME zinc inventory is 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that zinc prices are expected to remain strong due to low processing fees for zinc concentrate and limited production, despite some pressure from recent adjustments in trading rules [1][2] - Overnight, London zinc prices increased by 0.51%, closing at $3,376 per ton, with a trading volume of 14,032 lots, reflecting a rise in market activity [1] - The Shanghai zinc market also showed strength, with the main contract closing at 25,320 yuan per ton, up 0.42%, indicating a positive trend in domestic prices [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, which has led to a slight rebound in the US dollar, although this has had a limited impact on zinc prices [1] - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain low, causing smelting profits to fall below cost levels, which has constrained production and tightened supply, thereby supporting zinc prices [2] - Demand for zinc is expected to weaken as the seasonal slowdown approaches the Chinese New Year, but some traders are still actively purchasing low-priced sources, stabilizing transactions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the zinc market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remaining low, which supports zinc prices [1][2] - Overnight London zinc prices rose by 0.22%, closing at $3359 per ton, with a trading volume of 11,350 lots and an increase in open interest by 3,054 lots [1] - The domestic zinc market is facing weak demand as some downstream enterprises prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to a less optimistic demand outlook [2] Group 2 - The processing fees for domestic mainstream zinc concentrates are reported to be between 1,100 to 1,500 yuan per metal ton, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - The social inventory of refined zinc in major markets increased slightly to 109,900 tons, reflecting limited pressure on zinc prices [2] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are expected to increase volatility in the zinc market, with potential for wider price fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are experiencing a unique upward trend driven by macroeconomic factors, including strong oil prices and a weaker US dollar, despite uncertainties in the international market and domestic demand challenges [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 0.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in the domestic industrial economy and potential support for zinc demand [1]. - The US consumer confidence index fell by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, the lowest since 2014, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which may suppress zinc demand [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the domestic zinc market, both supply and demand remain weak. Zinc concentrate processing fees are at low levels, with domestic fees between 1,100 and 1,500 yuan per metal ton, constraining zinc supply and providing support for prices [3]. - Despite the low processing fees, smelters face production pressure, limiting refined zinc output. However, high zinc prices maintain production willingness among smelters [3]. - Domestic refined zinc social inventory was 109,900 tons as of Monday, a slight increase of 1,300 tons since January 22, indicating limited pressure on zinc prices [3]. International Market Influences - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding uncertainty to zinc prices. Such tensions can lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, potentially suppressing demand for industrial metals like zinc [4]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival in January and the overall stable consumption performance may lead to fluctuations in zinc prices, with current expectations for a short-term rebound, although the upward potential may be limited [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc prices continue to rise, supported by macroeconomic factors and production cost increases, but face pressure from weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai zinc futures opened strong, with the main contract 2603 starting at 25,280 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 25,280 yuan/ton and a low of 24,710 yuan/ton, closing at 24,950 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan, or 0.77% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2603 contract was 255,674 lots, an increase of 47,753 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,681 lots to 118,946 lots [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,335 USD, down 16 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 24,710-24,810 yuan/ton, with an average of 24,760 yuan, up 40 yuan; 1 zinc was between 24,630-24,730 yuan/ton, averaging 24,680 yuan, also up 40 yuan [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 24,500-24,800 yuan/ton, averaging 24,650 yuan, up 60 yuan; 1 zinc was between 24,430-24,730 yuan/ton, averaging 24,580 yuan, also up 60 yuan [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes for 0 zinc are between 24,700-24,810 yuan/ton, and for 1 zinc between 24,630-24,730 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders, the largest growth in six months, driven by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment [2]. - Market expectations for a potential U.S. government shutdown by the end of January have risen to 78%, up from less than 10% the previous week [2]. - Rising natural gas prices in Europe and the U.S. due to cold weather have increased production costs for overseas smelters, supporting higher zinc prices [2]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc processing fees have stabilized weakly, with some smelters reducing production; however, downstream companies are facing pressure from poor orders and high raw material prices, leading to increased inventory expectations [2]. - The current market shows active selling by holders, but the total demand from downstream for replenishment is not keeping pace, resulting in a gradual adjustment of spot premiums [2]. - Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious, with limited increases in overall transaction volumes [2]. Group 5: Price Outlook - Short-term support for zinc prices comes from a weak dollar and rising costs, but weak demand and inventory accumulation expectations are exerting pressure, leading to an anticipated range-bound and slightly strong price trend [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].