Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the report [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends and low operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided in the report - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound in the short term, while iron ore is likely to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal prices are volatile and influenced by policies. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by demand and policy continuity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures continued to rebound. This week, the apparent demand and production of thread both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils dropped significantly, production also decreased notably, and inventory continued to rise [2] - Affected by the parade, hot metal production dropped sharply this week and will gradually resume production later, but profit per ton of steel will limit the resumption space [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down. Overall domestic demand remained weak, while exports were expected to stay at a high level [2] - After continuous adjustments, the futures market gradually stabilized. With the rising expectation of anti-competition, market sentiment quickly improved, and it is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures fluctuated. Global shipments were strong, but those from Australia and those to China were weak. The arrival volume in China rebounded, and port inventory increased slightly this week, with a large decline in Australian ore, but there is no overall pressure to accumulate inventory [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel declined, the profitability rate of steel mills shrank, and hot metal production decreased significantly. There is an expectation of production resumption after the phased production restriction ends, and the demand support from high hot metal production still exists [3] - Macro利好 has been partially realized in the short term, but there is an overseas interest rate cut window in September. It is expected that speculative sentiment will not completely subside, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices rebounded significantly during the day. Whether the first round of price cuts in the coking industry will be fully implemented next Monday remains to be observed [4] - Coking profits are acceptable, daily coking production decreased slightly, overall coke inventory increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4] - The coke futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly during the day. Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines decreased significantly, but the impact time was short [6] - Spot auction transactions weakened slightly, and transaction prices fell following the futures market. Terminal inventory decreased slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory decreased month-on-month, and production-side inventory increased slightly. Coking coal production suspension will gradually resume, with a short impact duration, and it is expected to have little impact on inventory [6] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [6] - The coking coal futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [7] - The weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level. Silicon manganese inventory has not yet accumulated, and both futures and spot demand are good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore price decreased this week. However, after the significant rebound in the futures market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [7] - In the long term, it is judged that manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [8] - Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand is acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply continued to increase significantly, market futures and spot demand are good, and on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [8]