证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 09 30 年 月 日 宏观点评 9 月 PMI 季节性回升的背后 事件：2025 年 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8%（前值 49.4%）；非制造业 PMI 为 50.0%（前值 50.3%）。 核心观点：9 月制造业 PMI 季节性回升，多数分项也小幅反弹，但仍在收缩 区间，应是与 9 月出口韧性仍强，阅兵结束前期检修的企业复产、"反内卷" 的影响减轻等；服务业 有关 PMI 逆季节性回落，可能指向 9 月消费压力仍 分析师 杨涛 大。继续提示：当前经济回落有加速迹象，政策"适时加力"的必要性和可 能性提升，国内紧盯：消费、地产等基本面走势；"国庆、10 月四中"两个 关键窗口；央行近期可能的重启购买国债、Q4 大概率降息；财政 Q4 大概 率提前下发明年专项债和化债额度。海外紧盯：中美经贸谈判进展，尤其是 10 月底韩国 APEC 峰会。 1、9 月制造业 PMI 回升、仍处于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 回落。9 月制 造业 PMI 为 49.8%，较前值回升 0.4 个百分点，符合季节性（2015-2024 年 9 月 PMI 环比变 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan indicates that the postponement of tariff increases by Trump to August 1 may delay the impact of these new tariffs on prices until 2026, rather than being felt fully before Christmas [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Consumers - The delay in tariff implementation means that consumers may not experience price increases during the holiday shopping season, which could alleviate some pressure on American consumers in the second half of the year [1] - Retailers typically stock up in advance for Christmas, and the entire supply chain process means that even if tariffs are implemented now, the actual price increases may be felt later [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The postponement of tariffs could help the White House avoid negative news during the year-end shopping season, but it does not prevent the eventual transmission of these tariffs to American households [1] - Donovan warns that this delay represents a significant tax burden on American consumers, and by the end of the year, inflation-adjusted real wages are expected to decline rather than increase, which will reveal the true economic issues [1]