智通财经APP获悉，周五，芯片股盘中暴跌，AMD(AMD.US)一度跌超7%。截至发稿，AMD跌幅缩窄 至5.7%，英伟达(NVDA.US)跌超1.5%，美光科技(MU.US)跌超3.7%，台积电(TSM.US)跌超3.4%，博通 (AVGO.US)跌超2.4%，英特尔(INTC.US)跌0.8%。消息面上，特朗普威胁将对从中国进口的商品实 施"大规模关税上调"，理由是中国计划对稀土出口实施新的管制措施。 ...

Well, joining me now is Wharton School Professor of Finance and Wisdom Tree Chief Economist Jeremy Seagull. Jeremy, it's great to have you on the show. Welcome.>> Good to see you, Morgan. >> So, where do we go from here with stocks. >> Well, as I've been saying a long for a long time, make the trend your friend.It's the trend is on. Um, you know, but Mike Santo is right. It's been a it's been a long time since we've had any reaction.But at this point, I don't see anything immediately that is uh derailing uh ...

新关税将于10月14日起生效，部分税率将在明年1月1日起进一步上调。 此前，美国商务部自今年3月起已对木材及其衍生品（包括橱柜与家具）展开调查。 当地时间9月29日，美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口软木原木及木材征收10%关税，并对进口橱柜、浴室 柜及软包木制品加征25%关税。 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间9月29日，美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口软木原木及木材征收10%关税，并对进 口橱柜、浴室柜及软包木制品加征25%关税。新关税将于10月14日起生效，部分税率将在明年1月1日起 进一步上调。此前，美国商务部自今年3月起已对木材及其衍生品(包括橱柜与家具)展开调查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering a new semiconductor policy that requires domestic semiconductor production to match imports, with potential tariffs of up to 100% for non-compliance, highlighting ongoing trade tensions and the importance of domestic manufacturing [1][3][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Policy - The proposed policy mandates that semiconductor companies maintain a 1:1 ratio of domestically produced chips to imported chips, with significant tariffs for those who fail to comply [3]. - Discussions between U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and semiconductor executives indicate a focus on reducing reliance on foreign chip production due to economic security concerns [3][4]. - Companies like Apple and Dell may face challenges in tracking chip sources and balancing production between the U.S. and overseas, while firms like TSMC and Micron Technology could benefit from increased domestic production [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - A new round of tariffs announced by Trump is set to take effect on October 1, with average tariff rates rising from approximately 2.5% at the beginning of the year to around 21% [5]. - The OECD predicts that the overall effective tariff rate on U.S. imports has increased from 15.4% in mid-May to 19.5% by the end of August, marking the highest level since 1933 [6]. - The impact of tariffs on economic activity is expected to grow, with potential further increases in tariffs posing risks to economic growth and stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks on the current monetary policy stance, indicating that despite recent interest rate cuts, the Fed's position remains "moderately restrictive" and suggests potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [5][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell emphasized the challenges the Fed faces in achieving its dual mandate, noting that excessive rate cuts could lead to inflation rates near 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, while maintaining restrictive policies for too long could unnecessarily weaken the labor market [5][6]. - He reiterated that the slowdown in job growth this summer justified the recent policy shift, as new job creation has not kept pace with the number of job seekers [5]. Future Rate Decisions - Powell avoided giving strong hints about the upcoming Fed meeting on October 28-29 but did not dismiss market expectations for another rate cut [6]. - The Fed will review growth, employment, and inflation data to assess whether current policies are appropriately positioned [6]. Tariff Impact and Inflation - Powell noted that tariff increases could lead to one-time price hikes that may take time to manifest throughout the supply chain, emphasizing the Fed's responsibility to manage these inflationary pressures [7]. - A slight majority of Fed officials predict at least two more rate cuts this year, indicating growing concerns about labor market cracks amid a complex economic environment [7]. Political Pressures - Powell faces intense criticism from President Trump and senior officials regarding the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts, with Trump attempting to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged financial misstatements [8][9]. - Powell indirectly countered criticisms by highlighting the Fed's actions during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, asserting that the U.S. economy has performed comparably well to other major developed economies despite these shocks [9].

Group 1 - OECD raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.2%, citing unexpected resilience in the global economy, particularly in emerging markets [1][2] - The US growth forecast for 2025 was also increased from 1.6% to 1.8%, although the OECD warned that the full impact of tariff increases has yet to be realized, and significant risks remain for the economic outlook [1][2] - Despite the upward revision for 2025, the OECD maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 2.9%, indicating a slowdown from 3.3% growth expected in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The growth momentum is attributed to several factors, including preemptive shipping strategies by businesses in anticipation of higher tariffs, strong investment in artificial intelligence in the US, and effective fiscal support measures in some countries [2] - The OECD noted that as of the end of August, the overall effective tariff rate in the US had risen to 19.5%, the highest level since 1933, and warned that the full effects of tariff increases are becoming increasingly evident in consumer choices, labor markets, and consumer prices [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with rising unemployment rates and decreasing job vacancies, which may pave the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will be 2.7% this year, slightly above last year's 2.5%, and will reach 3% by 2026, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The organization anticipates that the Federal Reserve has room for three more rate cuts, with the policy rate expected to be lowered to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by next spring [3] - Key risks identified include further tariff increases and the potential resurgence of inflation, along with financial stability risks associated with high and unstable cryptocurrency valuations [3]

Core Insights - Prices of domestic products in Brazil, including chicken, coffee, pork, and beef, have decreased due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] - Despite the increase in tariffs, coffee exports from Brazil to the U.S. have significantly declined, with a year-on-year drop of 46.6% in August [1] Price Changes - Chicken prices fell by 5.7% - Coffee prices decreased by 4.6% - Pork prices dropped by 1.3% - Beef prices saw a reduction of 0.8% - Fish prices, in contrast, increased by 2% [1] Export Statistics - From August 1 to 25, Brazil exported 193,900 bags of coffee to the U.S. [1] - The coffee export decline is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, although U.S. coffee consumption is expected to remain stable [1]

Group 1: Tariff Impact Overview - The latest round of tariffs in the U.S. took effect on August 7, raising the average tariff rate to 18.6%, the highest since 1933, resulting in an estimated annual increase of $2,400 in household spending [1] Group 2: Price Increases by Product Category - **Electronics**: Computer prices rose nearly 5% year-on-year as of June, with short-term price increases projected at 18.2% and long-term at 7.7% [2] - **Clothing and Leather Goods**: Prices are expected to rise nearly 20% even after supply chain adjustments [4] - **Footwear**: Nike announced price increases for certain shoe models, with specific increases varying by style, as they plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers [6] - **Toys**: Prices increased by 3.2% in Q2, with over 75% of toys relying on Chinese production, making it difficult to shift production locations [9] - **Home Appliances and Household Goods**: Major retailers like Walmart and Costco have begun raising prices on appliances and kitchen products, though specific increases are not yet disclosed [11] - **Consumer Goods**: Procter & Gamble plans to raise prices on products like Tide and Pampers by an average of 2.5% to offset approximately $1 billion in tariff costs [13] - **Food and Agricultural Products**: Overall food prices are expected to rise by over 3%, with fresh produce potentially increasing by 7% [15] - **Coffee**: Tariffs on Brazilian coffee are as high as 50%, leading to significant retail price increases [17] - **Alcohol**: Tariffs on imported wines and spirits from the EU will rise from 10% to 15%, affecting retail prices [19] - **Automobiles**: Average vehicle prices are expected to rise by 12% (approximately $6,000), with specific increases for Japanese and Mexican assembled models [24] - **Watches**: Swiss watch exports to the U.S. will face a tariff increase to 39%, leading to expected retail price hikes [23]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the productive and extensive phone conversation between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump, focusing on trade challenges and opportunities in the Canada-U.S. economic and security relationship [1][2] - The conversation marks the first public acknowledgment of communication between the leaders since the U.S. raised tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% on August 1 [1][2] - Both leaders agreed to have another call soon, indicating ongoing trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Following the tariff increase, Carney expressed disappointment but has maintained communication with U.S. negotiation teams [2] - Carney is also working to deepen trade relations with other countries, with plans to visit Mexico in September for a meeting with President AMLO [2]