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有色金属日报-20250912
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 10:50
Investment Ratings - **Copper**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - **Aluminum**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is responding [1] - **Alumina**: ★☆☆, with a bullish drive but less market operability [1] - **Zinc**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but poor market maneuverability [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: ★☆☆, implying a bullish tendency but low trading potential [1] - **Tin**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading viability [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: ★★★, suggesting a distinct upward trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - **Polysilicon**: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced and it's better to wait and see [1] Core Views - Before the Fed cuts interest rates, the market trades on the expectation of liquidity release, and copper is sensitive to economic indicators. In the domestic copper market, it's advisable to take profits on previous long positions and monitor the premium of the 2510 contract's call option with a strike price of 82,000 yuan [2] - The short - term upward trend of non - ferrous metals is evident, but different metals have different fundamentals and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - The domestic and international copper prices continue to rise, with the spot copper reaching 80,755 yuan. The Shanghai flat - water copper still has a premium of 65 yuan. It's recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the call option premium [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum is strong, with the spot discount expanding. The downstream start - up is seasonally rising, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low. The casting aluminum alloy price has increased. Alumina has over - supply, and the spot price is falling [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is rising, driving up LME zinc. The domestic market is weaker, and it's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The inventory of pure nickel increases, while that of nickel iron and stainless steel decreases. It's expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin rises with increased positions. It's necessary to pay attention to the performance at 275,000 yuan. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, and it's advisable to hold a small number of long positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuates at a low level, and the market trading is active. The total inventory is decreasing, and the price is waiting for a clear direction [9] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon closes higher with reduced positions. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, and it's expected to maintain a volatile pattern [10] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closes higher with reduced positions. The spot price is stable, and the battery and component prices are rising. It's expected to fluctuate with significant upward pressure [11]