Core Viewpoint - The correlation between the consumption sector and major online promotions like "Double Eleven" is expected to gradually decrease, necessitating a focus on the medium to long-term consumption goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Consumption Sector Performance - In October, the retail sales of consumer goods (社零) grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [1] - The decline in national subsidies is evident, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment dropping by 14.6% year-on-year in October; however, other categories benefiting from subsidies, such as cultural office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and daily necessities, saw year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 9.6%, 23.2%, and 7.4% respectively [1] - The jewelry sector experienced significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 37.6% in October, driven by rising gold prices and consumer interest in gold as a value-preserving investment [2] - The clothing, footwear, and textile sectors saw a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in retail sales in October, showing gradual improvement as colder weather sets in [2] - The cosmetics sector also showed improvement, with retail sales growing by 9.6% year-on-year in October, aided by early promotions for "Double Eleven" [2] - Restaurant retail sales grew by 3.8% year-on-year in October, indicating slow but positive growth despite competition from food delivery services [2] Group 2: Impact of Holidays and Promotions - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 123 million trips compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up by 108.2 billion yuan [3] - The "Double Eleven" pre-sale started earlier in 2025, with major platforms like JD and Tmall launching promotions on October 9 and October 15 respectively; the overall sales during the "Double Eleven" period reached 1.695 trillion yuan, a 14.2% increase from the previous year [3] Group 3: Export Challenges - Consumer goods exports have been declining since April 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6% in October, contributing to an overall export decrease of 1.1% for China [4] - The announcement of a potential 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by U.S. President Trump on November 1 has raised concerns among leading consumer companies about the unpredictability of future tariff policies, prompting them to accelerate global capacity planning [4]