下半年国补资金力度减弱有一定影响，各省份出现控制补贴额度支出速度的现象，主要体现为每日补贴 限流、减少享受补贴的品类、暂停等各种方式。AVC周度数据，25W36(9.1-9.7)、W37(9.8-9.14)空调线 上零售额同比33.9%、-34.8%，线下零售额同比-37.1%、-26.9%；相比2023年同期，空调线上零售额 +34.3%、+61.2%，线下零售额-36.3%、+27.9%。 空调出口继续调整 产业在线数据，8月空调出口出货量528.7万台，同比-4.2%，降幅较前期有所收窄，优于之前排产预期 (-14.7%)，仍然受到美国关税影响，以及2024年高同比基数。产业在线数据，9/10/11月家用空调出口排 产较去年同期出口实绩分别-16.6%/-7.8%/-9.1%，继续反映了美国订单转移到海外，出口同比基数偏高 的预期。新兴市场国家以及欧洲地区空调渗透率低，由于全球多年出现高温，空调出口多年来高增长， 特别是2024年，目前有一定的渠道库存在去化中。但渗透率提升的趋势，以及全球气候变暖的趋势未 变。 618期间最激烈的价格战结束，价格回升 线下市场零售均价4-7月持续下行，8月均价回升至41 ...

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points, continuing a slowdown since June [1] - The decline in national subsidy consumption categories is impacting retail sales growth, with various provinces controlling subsidy spending through measures like limiting daily subsidies and reducing eligible categories [1][2] - The overall expectation is for retail sales growth to continue to slow in the coming months, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [1] Group 2: Consumer Categories Analysis - The growth rates for various consumer categories in August were as follows: communication equipment +7.3%, furniture +18.6%, cultural and office supplies +14.2%, home appliances +14.3%, and daily necessities +7.7%, with future high base pressures anticipated [2] - The automotive sector showed weak demand, with traditional fuel vehicle prices declining, resulting in a year-on-year retail sales growth of only 0.8% for automobiles in August [2] - The food and beverage sector saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in tobacco and alcohol retail sales, while restaurant sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in dining consumption [2] Group 3: Export Performance - In August, China's export scale reached $321.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% but a month-on-month decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] - The export growth to the United States continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% in August, which negatively impacted overall export growth by 5.1 percentage points [4]

Overall Situation - The market is expected to remain strong for the next four months, with a potential surge in demand for vehicle registrations by year-end due to the upcoming tax changes on new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the following year [1] - If national subsidies decrease, the industry may see an overall decline of 5% to 7%, while continued subsidies could support growth [1] - The slowdown in NEV replacement rates this year is attributed to insufficient discounts from NEV manufacturers and accelerated price reductions in fuel vehicles, leading to a lack of price competitiveness [1] - The transition to electrification is irreversible, with plug-in hybrid vehicles likely to continue replacing fuel vehicles in the coming years [1] - The growth potential for fuel vehicles is now limited, leading many dealerships to consider closing or switching to NEV brands due to financial losses [1] - Currently, about one-third of BBA dealerships are operating at a loss, while two-thirds are profitable, but profits have significantly decreased [1] Brand-Specific Situations - Galaxy A Network is in an upward phase, with half of its sales coming from the Galaxy A7, which has stable monthly sales exceeding 15,000 units, potentially reaching 20,000 [2] - BYD is facing performance pressure and is unlikely to reverse this trend within the year, with a current direct sales gross margin of around 3% [2] - Customer feedback indicates that BYD's low-end intelligent driving features are not well-received, suggesting a need for improvements in battery technology instead [3] - The new P7 from Xiaopeng has received over 10,000 orders in the first hour, but actual delivery numbers are expected to drop significantly thereafter due to its niche positioning [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Green Power (601330) has shown a significant increase in stock price, rising by 7.56% to HKD 4.84, with a trading volume of HKD 15.83 million, following the release of its mid-year performance for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.684 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 377 million, marking a substantial growth of 24.49% [1] - The weighted Return on Equity (ROE) was 4.56%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points [1] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The company achieved revenue growth despite a decline in construction income, with construction revenue for the first half of 2024 at CNY 23 million and no construction revenue in the first half of 2025 [1] - Key contributors to revenue growth included an increase in sludge expansion, higher garbage volume, increased steam supply, and enhanced sales from leachate biogas purification [1] - Operating revenue for the same period increased by CNY 46 million, a year-on-year rise of 2.83% [1] Group 3: Dividend and Cash Flow - The current dividend yield for the company is 6.87% for Hong Kong shares and 4.29% for A-shares [1] - Free cash flow continued to strengthen in the first half of 2025, indicating potential for increased dividends [1] Group 4: Business Expansion - The company has been actively expanding its non-electricity businesses, particularly in heating, to mitigate the impact of national subsidy reductions [2] - In the first half of 2025, the steam supply business saw rapid growth, with a total supply of 513,800 tons, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 114.98% [2] - Several projects in the heating sector achieved breakthroughs, contributing to a notable increase in profits due to the high margin and quality cash flow associated with this business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese waste incineration industry is experiencing a shift from a "garbage siege" to "oversupply," with many incineration plants facing insufficient waste supply due to overcapacity and changes in waste generation patterns [3][4][5]. Industry Changes - In the first half of 2025, a survey revealed that two-thirds of waste incineration plants are struggling with insufficient waste supply [3]. - The proportion of waste incineration in urban waste management has dramatically increased from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill disposal has decreased from 85.2% to 7.5% [3]. - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic waste incineration projects is around 60%, indicating a significant portion of capacity is underutilized [4][7]. Reasons for Supply-Demand Imbalance - The overcapacity is attributed to two main factors: overly optimistic projections of future waste generation and the impact of waste classification, which has reduced the amount of combustible waste available for incineration [3][9]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand [8][9]. Future Trends - Waste incineration plants are being urged to diversify their operations, such as providing steam and hot water or collaborating on sludge treatment, to adapt to the changing market [4][15]. - The industry is also looking to expand into international markets, with over 80 overseas waste incineration projects involving Chinese companies [4][8]. Financial Challenges - The revenue model for waste incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies and waste disposal fees, with electricity sales accounting for about two-thirds of their income [14][15]. - Recent policy changes have led to a reduction in government subsidies, increasing the financial pressure on these plants and prompting them to seek higher waste disposal fees from local governments [15][17]. Market Dynamics - The shift in waste generation patterns, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to a notable decrease in waste supply, with some plants reporting utilization rates as low as 24% [8][9]. - The industry is facing increased operational costs due to the need to excavate previously landfilled waste to meet incineration capacity [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "insufficient garbage supply" in China's waste incineration power generation industry, highlighting the transition from "garbage siege" to "garbage scarcity" and the challenges faced by incineration plants due to overcapacity and reduced waste generation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the past two decades, China has transformed its waste management approach, with the proportion of urban household waste treated by incineration rising from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill treatment dropped from 85.2% to 7.5% [2]. - The number of waste incineration plants has increased from 67 to 1010, with an average capacity utilization rate of around 60% in recent years [3][4]. - The daily incineration capacity of waste has surged from 23.8 million tons in 2016 to 115.5 million tons in 2024, yet the industry average load factor remains below 60%, with 40% of capacity idle [9]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Garbage Supply - The insufficient garbage supply is attributed to two main factors: overestimation of future waste generation during planning and the impact of waste classification, which has diverted organic waste away from incineration [3][10]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a supply-demand imbalance, with many plants operating at low capacity [10][11]. - The promotion of waste classification has resulted in a significant portion of waste being processed differently, reducing the amount available for incineration [11]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Challenges - The financial viability of incineration plants is increasingly challenged by the reduction of government subsidies and the need to diversify operations, such as providing steam and heat to nearby industries [4][20]. - The revenue structure of incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies, which have been declining, leading to increased pressure on local governments to cover rising waste disposal fees [19][21]. - The average waste disposal fee has risen significantly, with some regions charging up to 150 yuan per ton, increasing the financial burden on local governments [23][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Adaptations - The industry is expected to adapt by exploring new business models and expanding services beyond waste incineration, such as heat supply and sludge treatment [4][25]. - The article suggests that the industry must focus on improving economic efficiency and diversifying revenue sources to cope with the challenges of insufficient waste supply and subsidy reductions [25].

2025年上半年，E20环境平台固废产业研究中心主任潘功调研了20余家垃圾焚烧厂，发现其中三分之二的企业面临垃圾供给不足的问题。 今年四月份，他参观的一个垃圾焚烧厂在建成四年间负荷率仅为60%左右，主要原因是当初设计规划超前以及周边新厂分流。目前该垃圾焚烧厂已准备焚烧 部分政府协调的一般工业固废，同时也开始积极探索为周边工业企业供热。 但另一方面，垃圾焚烧厂"产能过剩"的情况也开始出现。E20研究院监测数据显示，近两年，国内垃圾焚烧发电项目的平均产能利用率为60%左右。"垃圾不 够烧"是如何发生的？ 一名垃圾焚烧厂负责人表示，过去多年，中国已实现城市和县区垃圾焚烧厂全覆盖，从"垃圾围城"到"产能过剩"，原因主要有两点：一是垃圾焚烧处理能力 在设计规划时为未来留有大量冗余，但后续垃圾产生量暂时没有达到预期，而垃圾的产生跟经济活动的活跃度有关；二是垃圾分类后，厨余垃圾被分走，影 响了垃圾产生的数量。 上述焚烧厂负责人告诉经济观察报："全国垃圾焚烧厂从最初的一百多座增加到如今的一千多座，增速很快。疫情后，'垃圾不够烧'的现象尤为明显。就未 来趋势看，在垃圾供给减少、国补退坡等因素影响下，焚烧厂必须向多元化经营转型， ...

Core Insights - Global sales of new energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid) reached 1.6 million units in May 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase and setting a new monthly record [1] - China's market sales surpassed 1 million units for the first time, accounting for 63.75% of global sales, highlighting its role as a key growth engine [1] - Cumulative sales in China from January to May 2025 reached 4.56 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase, with expectations to exceed 10 million units for the year [1] Factors Driving Growth in China - Continued support from local governments through charging infrastructure subsidies and relaxed restrictions despite the gradual phase-out of national subsidies [2] - Significant improvements in domestic battery technology, with energy density reaching 300Wh/kg and charging times reduced to 15 minutes [2] - Increased market penetration in lower-tier cities, with rural market penetration rising from 8% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [2] - BYD leads the market with a 32% share, while Tesla's share has decreased to 18% [2] Brand Landscape and Competition - BYD's global sales reached 2.1 million units in the first half of 2025, surpassing Tesla to become the global leader [3] - New entrants like Zeekr and Xpeng are gaining market share through high-end strategies, with their shares rising to 8%-12% [3] - Traditional automakers like Geely and Changan have seen their new energy vehicle sales increase by over 50% year-on-year [2][3] - The market is experiencing consolidation, with smaller brands facing significant declines in sales, leading to a predicted 80% market share concentration among the top 10 brands by 2025 [3] Impact of Subsidy Phase-Out - The gradual reduction of subsidies is expected to increase the cost per vehicle by 30,000 to 50,000 yuan, putting pressure on low-cost models [4] - Companies are accelerating cost-reduction technologies, such as CATL's CTP 3.0 battery system, which lowers costs by 15% [4] - Consumer focus on cost-performance has risen to 70%, with the share of high-end models dropping from 25% to 18% [4] - Non-subsidy-driven personal consumption accounted for 85% of the market from January to May 2025, indicating stronger internal growth dynamics [4] Future Market Outlook - BNEF predicts global new energy vehicle sales will reach 9 million units in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth rate of 22%-25% [6] - Technological competition is expected to intensify, focusing on 800V high-voltage platforms, solid-state batteries, and L4 autonomous driving technology [6] - Chinese brands are accelerating their expansion into Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports expected to exceed 2 million units in 2025, accounting for 20% of total sales [6] - The number of charging stations increased by 1.2 million in the first half of 2025, improving the vehicle-to-charger ratio from 3.5:1 to 2.8:1 [6] - The 2025 new energy vehicle market will experience both breakthrough growth and structural adjustments, driven by China's leadership, rapid technological innovation, and brand reshaping [6]