Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of the medium- to long-term consumption goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and highlights the need for specific consumption policies to be implemented by 2026 [1] Group 1: Consumption Industry Outlook - The global consumption recovery is slow, with high tariffs pushing up prices and high interest rates suppressing credit demand, leading to weakened consumer confidence in Europe and the US [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed a focus on domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption, including plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [1] - The report expresses a more optimistic view on service consumption compared to goods consumption, noting recent policies that enhance the focus on service consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Retail Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rate was +1.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [2] - The reduction in national subsidies is reflected in the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, which saw declines of -14.6% and -19.4% year-on-year in October and November, respectively [2] - Retail sales in the furniture category showed a year-on-year increase of +9.6% in October, while daily necessities experienced a growth of +7.4%, indicating a weakening trend [2] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - The gold and jewelry category saw significant growth of +37.6% and +8.5% year-on-year in October and November, influenced by new tax policies affecting gold jewelry [3] - The clothing, footwear, and textile categories maintained stable growth rates of +6.3% and +3.5% year-on-year, supported by seasonal changes [3] - The cosmetics sector also showed improvement, with year-on-year growth rates of +9.6% and +6.1% in October and November, aided by promotional activities [3] Group 4: Global Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in Europe and the US remains weak, with the US consumer confidence index at 53.3, close to historical lows, and the EU consumer confidence index at -13.6, indicating a relatively low level of optimism [4] - Overall retail performance in the US has been subdued, with a year-on-year increase of +3.9% in September, reflecting a decline from August [4] - Online sales during the holiday shopping week showed modest growth, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday experiencing increases of +9.3% and +7.1% year-on-year, respectively, amidst intense competition [4]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 服务消费提振核心 CPI 2025 年 11 月通胀点评 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 全球资本开支仍是出口主线：11 月进出口 | 2025-12-10 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 12 月鹰 ...

数据显示，今年1-8月，全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿元；限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公 用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%，支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 然而2025年国补已经进入"收官"阶段，据济南日报等媒体报道，最后一笔资金当前全国使用率已超80%，山东、河南等消费大省余额不足 20%，部分地区 将提前 1-2个月停补，2025年12月31日24 时全国统一关闸，2026年无同规模补贴政策。 银河证券预测"国补作为提振消费的手段之一将延续，但针对之前最受益的家电，补贴力度会明显下降，或不及2025年的力度一半。" 虽然第四批690亿元国补资金已全面下达，但近期网络上"国补是否已经停止"的热议，已经折射出国补使用率收官的紧急信号。那么，"国补退坡"后可能 带来哪些风险？对比2008-2012年前后那一轮"家电下乡"，当年的家电企业是如何应对需求透支问题的？有哪些经验和教训？如何应对"后国补时代"？ 国补收官：2026年是否延续未定 诚然，3000亿元超长期特别国债资金支持商品以旧换新，对 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 113.1 billion yuan (up 22.3% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit at 11.3 billion yuan (up 80.9% year-on-year) [1] Automotive Business - The automotive segment achieved profitability in Q3, with vehicle deliveries reaching 108,796 units (up 173.4% year-on-year) [1] - Revenue from automotive and AI-related innovative businesses in Q3 was 29 billion yuan (up 199.2% year-on-year), with automotive revenue at 28.3 billion yuan (up 197.9% year-on-year) [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 260,000 yuan (up 9.0% year-on-year), driven by higher ASP from models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [1] - The gross margin for automotive-related businesses reached 25.5% in Q3, and the segment achieved a quarterly operating profit of 700 million yuan for the first time [1] Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment faced challenges due to rising storage costs, with Q3 shipments exceeding 43 million units (up 0.5% year-on-year) [2] - Revenue from the smartphone business was 46 billion yuan (down 3.1% year-on-year), primarily due to a decline in ASP, which was 1,062.8 yuan (down 3.6% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for the smartphone business was 11.1%, a decrease of approximately 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates cost pressures in 2026 for smartphones, tablets, and laptops due to ongoing increases in the global memory market [2] IoT and Consumer Products - Revenue growth for IoT and consumer products slowed, with Q3 revenue at 27.6 billion yuan (up 5.6% year-on-year) [3] - Revenue from certain consumer products increased by 20.4%, while wearable products saw a 22.5% increase; however, revenue from smart home appliances decreased by 15.7% due to reduced shipments from subsidy cuts and increased competition [3] - The company’s smart appliance factory has commenced operations, with a planned peak annual capacity of 7 million units [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 44.1 billion yuan, 52.4 billion yuan, and 65.3 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 43.1 billion yuan, 57.4 billion yuan, and 68.7 billion yuan [3] - Despite pressures on consumer electronics profitability from rising memory costs, the automotive segment's profitability is expected to offset some of these challenges, and the company maintains a "recommended" rating following recent valuation adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between the consumption sector and major online promotions like "Double Eleven" is expected to gradually decrease, necessitating a focus on the medium to long-term consumption goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Consumption Sector Performance - In October, the retail sales of consumer goods (社零) grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [1] - The decline in national subsidies is evident, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment dropping by 14.6% year-on-year in October; however, other categories benefiting from subsidies, such as cultural office supplies, furniture, communication equipment, and daily necessities, saw year-on-year growth rates of 13.5%, 9.6%, 23.2%, and 7.4% respectively [1] - The jewelry sector experienced significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 37.6% in October, driven by rising gold prices and consumer interest in gold as a value-preserving investment [2] - The clothing, footwear, and textile sectors saw a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in retail sales in October, showing gradual improvement as colder weather sets in [2] - The cosmetics sector also showed improvement, with retail sales growing by 9.6% year-on-year in October, aided by early promotions for "Double Eleven" [2] - Restaurant retail sales grew by 3.8% year-on-year in October, indicating slow but positive growth despite competition from food delivery services [2] Group 2: Impact of Holidays and Promotions - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 123 million trips compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up by 108.2 billion yuan [3] - The "Double Eleven" pre-sale started earlier in 2025, with major platforms like JD and Tmall launching promotions on October 9 and October 15 respectively; the overall sales during the "Double Eleven" period reached 1.695 trillion yuan, a 14.2% increase from the previous year [3] Group 3: Export Challenges - Consumer goods exports have been declining since April 2025 due to U.S. tariffs, with a year-on-year decline of 15.6% in October, contributing to an overall export decrease of 1.1% for China [4] - The announcement of a potential 100% tariff on all Chinese imports by U.S. President Trump on November 1 has raised concerns among leading consumer companies about the unpredictability of future tariff policies, prompting them to accelerate global capacity planning [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.393 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.49%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.20% to 488 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 12.47% to 451 million yuan. In Q3 2025, revenue was 7.321 billion yuan, down 6.33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 71.22 million yuan, a decline of 38.58% [2][6][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.15%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit for the same period was 365 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.99% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 1.44%, down 0.15 percentage points [14]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 9.44%, with an operating profit of 26.64 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.67% [14]. Market Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from structural opportunities in the industry, including cautious domestic consumption, the rise of e-commerce, and upgrades in refrigerator structures. The air conditioning business is anticipated to gain market share through e-commerce and competitive pricing, while the refrigerator segment aims to enhance average prices and profit elasticity through structural upgrades [14]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 649 million yuan, 716 million yuan, and 801 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 11.08, 10.04, and 8.97 times [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is experiencing a shift in competition dynamics, particularly in the white goods sector, with a notable increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end consumption driven by national subsidies [1][2][4] - Price competition for flow models has eased, returning to levels seen in April, likely due to the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand [1][2][4] - Consumer demand is currently weak, with a notable impact from the expiration of subsidies in various regions, particularly in the southwest and eastern areas of China [2][3] Company Performance Midea Group - Midea's revenue growth is expected to be in the high single digits, around 10%, but profit growth may lag due to the consolidation of assets [1][6] - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, effectively managing inventory to adjust to market conditions [6] Haier - Haier's revenue growth is projected at 7%-8%, with double-digit profit growth anticipated due to channel reforms and reduced expense ratios [1][7] - The Casarte brand continues to perform well under national subsidy policies, contributing positively to profitability [7] Hisense - Hisense is expected to see slight increases in both revenue and profit, although its central air conditioning business faces challenges [1][8] - The company has experienced a rebound in installation card growth since July, indicating a stabilization in price competition [2][4] TCL - TCL's revenue is expected to remain flat compared to last year, with profit also stabilizing due to high base effects from the previous year [1][9] Hailong Cold Chain - Hailong Cold Chain's revenue is expected to match the first half of 2025, with strong growth in refrigeration and exports [1][10] Market Dynamics Mini LED Technology - The penetration rate of Mini LED technology has slightly decreased, influenced by subsidy reductions and cost adjustments in electronic modules [1][11] - Despite this, product iterations are expected to support higher selling prices [11] Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is witnessing significant growth, particularly in cleaning devices like robotic vacuums, with companies like Stone Technology reporting an 80% revenue growth and a 50% profit increase [1][14] - The kitchen small appliance market remains stable, with companies like Bear Electric projecting a 13% revenue increase, while New Bao is expected to face negative growth [1][15][16] Export Market - The export market is experiencing volatility, particularly in Europe and Latin America, with the latter entering its peak air conditioning sales season [3][5] - Chinese companies are shifting production to countries like Egypt and Thailand to mitigate tariff pressures [3][5] Future Outlook - The small appliance industry is expected to continue evolving, focusing on cost control and innovation to drive growth [1][17] - New product categories, such as washing robots, are anticipated to become significant growth drivers [17]

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning retail market in China is experiencing a significant slowdown due to the impact of reduced national subsidies and high year-on-year comparison bases starting from September 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Sales and Production - From September to November, the domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline compared to the same period last year, with decreases of -6.3%, -23.4%, and -17.6% respectively, indicating a cautious industry outlook [1][2]. - In August, domestic air conditioning shipments reached 7.737 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, driven by sustained high temperatures across the country [2]. - The reduction in national subsidy funding has led to various measures across provinces to control subsidy spending, including daily limits on subsidies and the suspension of certain categories [2]. Group 2: Export Trends - In August, air conditioning exports totaled 5.287 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, although this was an improvement compared to previous production forecasts [3]. - For September to November, the expected production for household air conditioning exports shows declines of -16.6%, -7.8%, and -9.1% respectively, attributed to the transfer of U.S. orders overseas and high year-on-year comparison bases [3]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The retail average price of air conditioners in the offline market has shown a recovery, rising to 4,301 yuan per unit in September after a decline from April to July [4]. - Online retail prices have also improved, with the average price reaching 2,859 yuan per unit in September, following a downward trend earlier in the year [4]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Service Upgrades - Xiaomi has announced an upgrade to a 10-year free warranty for its air conditioners, reflecting a shift in the industry from price competition to a focus on quality and service [5]. - The extension of service periods is expected to enhance consumer confidence in product quality and increase competitive pressure on manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current market is active, with traditional home appliance leaders lacking growth potential, while technology-related companies are performing better [6][7]. - Recommendations include companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, as well as innovative firms like Ousheng Electric and Rongtai Health [6][7].

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August, China's retail sales grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points, continuing a slowdown since June [1] - The decline in national subsidy consumption categories is impacting retail sales growth, with various provinces controlling subsidy spending through measures like limiting daily subsidies and reducing eligible categories [1][2] - The overall expectation is for retail sales growth to continue to slow in the coming months, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [1] Group 2: Consumer Categories Analysis - The growth rates for various consumer categories in August were as follows: communication equipment +7.3%, furniture +18.6%, cultural and office supplies +14.2%, home appliances +14.3%, and daily necessities +7.7%, with future high base pressures anticipated [2] - The automotive sector showed weak demand, with traditional fuel vehicle prices declining, resulting in a year-on-year retail sales growth of only 0.8% for automobiles in August [2] - The food and beverage sector saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in tobacco and alcohol retail sales, while restaurant sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in dining consumption [2] Group 3: Export Performance - In August, China's export scale reached $321.81 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4% but a month-on-month decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] - The export growth to the United States continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% in August, which negatively impacted overall export growth by 5.1 percentage points [4]