Core Viewpoint - The Chinese waste incineration industry is experiencing a shift from a "garbage siege" to "oversupply," with many incineration plants facing insufficient waste supply due to overcapacity and changes in waste generation patterns [3][4][5]. Industry Changes - In the first half of 2025, a survey revealed that two-thirds of waste incineration plants are struggling with insufficient waste supply [3]. - The proportion of waste incineration in urban waste management has dramatically increased from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill disposal has decreased from 85.2% to 7.5% [3]. - The average capacity utilization rate of domestic waste incineration projects is around 60%, indicating a significant portion of capacity is underutilized [4][7]. Reasons for Supply-Demand Imbalance - The overcapacity is attributed to two main factors: overly optimistic projections of future waste generation and the impact of waste classification, which has reduced the amount of combustible waste available for incineration [3][9]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a mismatch between supply and demand [8][9]. Future Trends - Waste incineration plants are being urged to diversify their operations, such as providing steam and hot water or collaborating on sludge treatment, to adapt to the changing market [4][15]. - The industry is also looking to expand into international markets, with over 80 overseas waste incineration projects involving Chinese companies [4][8]. Financial Challenges - The revenue model for waste incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies and waste disposal fees, with electricity sales accounting for about two-thirds of their income [14][15]. - Recent policy changes have led to a reduction in government subsidies, increasing the financial pressure on these plants and prompting them to seek higher waste disposal fees from local governments [15][17]. Market Dynamics - The shift in waste generation patterns, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to a notable decrease in waste supply, with some plants reporting utilization rates as low as 24% [8][9]. - The industry is facing increased operational costs due to the need to excavate previously landfilled waste to meet incineration capacity [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "insufficient garbage supply" in China's waste incineration power generation industry, highlighting the transition from "garbage siege" to "garbage scarcity" and the challenges faced by incineration plants due to overcapacity and reduced waste generation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the past two decades, China has transformed its waste management approach, with the proportion of urban household waste treated by incineration rising from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill treatment dropped from 85.2% to 7.5% [2]. - The number of waste incineration plants has increased from 67 to 1010, with an average capacity utilization rate of around 60% in recent years [3][4]. - The daily incineration capacity of waste has surged from 23.8 million tons in 2016 to 115.5 million tons in 2024, yet the industry average load factor remains below 60%, with 40% of capacity idle [9]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Garbage Supply - The insufficient garbage supply is attributed to two main factors: overestimation of future waste generation during planning and the impact of waste classification, which has diverted organic waste away from incineration [3][10]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a supply-demand imbalance, with many plants operating at low capacity [10][11]. - The promotion of waste classification has resulted in a significant portion of waste being processed differently, reducing the amount available for incineration [11]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Challenges - The financial viability of incineration plants is increasingly challenged by the reduction of government subsidies and the need to diversify operations, such as providing steam and heat to nearby industries [4][20]. - The revenue structure of incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies, which have been declining, leading to increased pressure on local governments to cover rising waste disposal fees [19][21]. - The average waste disposal fee has risen significantly, with some regions charging up to 150 yuan per ton, increasing the financial burden on local governments [23][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Adaptations - The industry is expected to adapt by exploring new business models and expanding services beyond waste incineration, such as heat supply and sludge treatment [4][25]. - The article suggests that the industry must focus on improving economic efficiency and diversifying revenue sources to cope with the challenges of insufficient waste supply and subsidy reductions [25].

Core Insights - Global sales of new energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid) reached 1.6 million units in May 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase and setting a new monthly record [1] - China's market sales surpassed 1 million units for the first time, accounting for 63.75% of global sales, highlighting its role as a key growth engine [1] - Cumulative sales in China from January to May 2025 reached 4.56 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase, with expectations to exceed 10 million units for the year [1] Factors Driving Growth in China - Continued support from local governments through charging infrastructure subsidies and relaxed restrictions despite the gradual phase-out of national subsidies [2] - Significant improvements in domestic battery technology, with energy density reaching 300Wh/kg and charging times reduced to 15 minutes [2] - Increased market penetration in lower-tier cities, with rural market penetration rising from 8% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [2] - BYD leads the market with a 32% share, while Tesla's share has decreased to 18% [2] Brand Landscape and Competition - BYD's global sales reached 2.1 million units in the first half of 2025, surpassing Tesla to become the global leader [3] - New entrants like Zeekr and Xpeng are gaining market share through high-end strategies, with their shares rising to 8%-12% [3] - Traditional automakers like Geely and Changan have seen their new energy vehicle sales increase by over 50% year-on-year [2][3] - The market is experiencing consolidation, with smaller brands facing significant declines in sales, leading to a predicted 80% market share concentration among the top 10 brands by 2025 [3] Impact of Subsidy Phase-Out - The gradual reduction of subsidies is expected to increase the cost per vehicle by 30,000 to 50,000 yuan, putting pressure on low-cost models [4] - Companies are accelerating cost-reduction technologies, such as CATL's CTP 3.0 battery system, which lowers costs by 15% [4] - Consumer focus on cost-performance has risen to 70%, with the share of high-end models dropping from 25% to 18% [4] - Non-subsidy-driven personal consumption accounted for 85% of the market from January to May 2025, indicating stronger internal growth dynamics [4] Future Market Outlook - BNEF predicts global new energy vehicle sales will reach 9 million units in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth rate of 22%-25% [6] - Technological competition is expected to intensify, focusing on 800V high-voltage platforms, solid-state batteries, and L4 autonomous driving technology [6] - Chinese brands are accelerating their expansion into Europe and Southeast Asia, with exports expected to exceed 2 million units in 2025, accounting for 20% of total sales [6] - The number of charging stations increased by 1.2 million in the first half of 2025, improving the vehicle-to-charger ratio from 3.5:1 to 2.8:1 [6] - The 2025 new energy vehicle market will experience both breakthrough growth and structural adjustments, driven by China's leadership, rapid technological innovation, and brand reshaping [6]