1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating conditions at historical mid-high levels[1] - Cement shipments are at historical low levels, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[1] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and building materials demand below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices have rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold prices increasing[3] - Domestic industrial products, except for some chemicals and asphalt, show weak performance, indicating slight domestic demand fatigue[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have turned negative year-on-year, with a 30% decrease compared to 2023 and a 4% decrease compared to 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes show divergence, with Beijing up 12% and Shanghai down 19% compared to 2024[4] Exports - High-frequency export data indicates a rebound in the third week of June, but June exports are expected to decline by around 3% year-on-year[5] Liquidity - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with R007 at 1.59% and DR007 at 1.49% as of June 20[4] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 1,082.8 billion yuan in recent weeks[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices face increasing resistance to rise due to the marginal improvement of supply tightness and weakened consumer resilience, despite improved domestic commodity sentiment and tight raw material supply [1]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Although the low inventory of aluminum ingots and bars provides support, the expected demand is pressured by the US tariff increase [3]. - Lead prices may decline further as the demand is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. - Zinc prices have a high risk of decline due to the expected surplus of zinc ore and the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory with weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have limited rebound space as the supply release trend is hard to change and the demand has no significant increase [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to be bearish in the follow - up, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a limited rebound due to high production and inventory pressure [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by cost, and short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended [14]. - Stainless steel market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern due to low industry confidence, weak terminal demand, and reduced cost support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - LME copper closed up 0.61% to $9707/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3350 to 138000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased to 60.4%. The domestic social inventory declined slightly, and the spot premium decreased. The import of domestic copper spot was in a loss, and the scrap - refined spread narrowed [1]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77800 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9580 - 9780 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2475/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20075 yuan/ton. The inventory of SHFE aluminum futures decreased to 4.8 tons, and the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 50.4 tons. The import window for alumina opened [3][13]. - The recommended operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% to 16693 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.08 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, and the cost support of recycled lead may weaken [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.33% to 22257 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 7.93 tons. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc ingot production is expected to increase in June [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated strongly due to concerns about supply. However, the supply release trend is hard to change, and the demand has no significant increase. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main contract operating range of 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The production of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat. The LC2507 contract closed down 1.60%. The production and inventory are high, and the price rebound is limited. The recommended operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 61500 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index decreased by 3.8% to 2939 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Short - selling on rallies with light positions is recommended, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating range of 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [13][14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed down 0.24% to 12690 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased. The market is expected to continue the weak oscillating pattern [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the storage purchase news, the rubber price increased slightly, but the weak demand expectation remains, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production period suppresses the upside of the rubber price. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 14,500 - 15,500, and short - selling on light positions can be considered at the upper limit of the range [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continues to decline under pressure after breaking through the low level. The supply has a growth expectation even at low prices, while the demand remains weak. The price may continue to be under pressure, with the price fluctuation range adjusted to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the way of capacity clearance [3]. Polysilicon - In May, the demand decline is highly certain, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to unchanged supply. The uncertainty of joint production cuts increases, and the polysilicon output is expected to increase. The warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The spot price continues to fall, pulling down the futures price. The main fluctuation range of the futures price is expected to move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and long positions should be closed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is new supply pressure from the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, and short - term inventory is likely to remain flat. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after maintenance. Consider short - term high - selling on the far - month contracts on rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - For glass, the spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the 09 contract observing whether it can be supported at the 1,000 level [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day; the whole - milk basis switched to the 2509 contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 700% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was - 820 yuan/ton on May 20, up 10 yuan or 1.2% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 8.7% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production was 149,200 tons, down 197,200 tons or 56.93% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 209,300 tons, up 11,700 tons or 5.92% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory was 618,693 tons on May 20, up 4,506 tons or 0.73% from the previous value; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE was 70,257 tons, down 4,435 tons or 5.94% [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 1.68% from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) was 890 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 8.54% [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread was - 30 yuan/ton on May 20, down 10 yuan or 50% from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or 12.1% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 201,400 tons, down 17,000 tons or 7.79% from the previous value; the social inventory was 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.5% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 37,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan or 120.59% [4]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract price was 35,625 yuan/ton on May 20, down 1,525 yuan or 4.1% from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan or 18.18% [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, unchanged from the previous value; in April, the polysilicon output was 95,400 tons, down 700 tons or 0.73% from the previous month [4]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 250,000 tons, down 7,000 tons or 2.72% from the previous value; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 hands to 140 hands [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 20, the North China glass quotation was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day; the glass 2505 contract price was 1,129 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan or 10.69% [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,315 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.33% [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on May 16 was 80.27%, down 8.51% from February 9; the weekly soda ash output was 677,700 tons, down 63,000 tons or 8.52% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,808,200 heavy boxes, up 52,200 heavy boxes or 0.77% from February 9; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 171,200 tons, up 1,100 tons or 0.63% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99% compared with the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67% compared with the previous value [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually starting, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $17.14 to $17.52, a 2.22% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.4 to $66.73, a 0.99% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,135 yuan, a 0.41% decrease; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,015 yuan to 5,985 yuan, a 0.50% decrease. The cotton index 328 rose by 0.25%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Overview**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and CF01 - 05 showed different degrees of change, with SR05 - 09 having the largest increase of 17.68%, and SR09 - 01 having the largest decrease of 10.14% [3] - **Import Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,401.5 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.1023, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 9.18; the implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1335, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 30,301 to 30,346, a 0.15% increase; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,172 to 11,269, an 0.87% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million yuan, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]