Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

新西兰6月出口 66.3亿纽元，前值由76.8亿纽元修正为75亿纽元。 ...

韩国7月出口20天同比 -2.2%，前值 8.3%。 ...

马来西亚6月出口同比下降3.5%，机构预期增长5.5%。 ...

日本6月出口同比 -0.5%，预期 0.5%，前值 -1.7%。 ...

Group 1 - Canada's May exports reached 60.81 billion Canadian dollars, showing an increase from the previously revised figure of 60.44 billion Canadian dollars to 60.12 billion Canadian dollars [1]

澳大利亚5月出口 -2.7%，前值 -2.4%。 ...

新西兰5月出口 76.8亿纽元，前值由78.4亿纽元修正为77亿纽元。 ...

Supply and Demand - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating conditions at historical mid-high levels[1] - Cement shipments are at historical low levels, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[1] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and building materials demand below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices have rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold prices increasing[3] - Domestic industrial products, except for some chemicals and asphalt, show weak performance, indicating slight domestic demand fatigue[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have turned negative year-on-year, with a 30% decrease compared to 2023 and a 4% decrease compared to 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes show divergence, with Beijing up 12% and Shanghai down 19% compared to 2024[4] Exports - High-frequency export data indicates a rebound in the third week of June, but June exports are expected to decline by around 3% year-on-year[5] Liquidity - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with R007 at 1.59% and DR007 at 1.49% as of June 20[4] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 1,082.8 billion yuan in recent weeks[4]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 5月出口表现怎么样？我们理解是"整体韧性+小幅放缓"。4.8%的单月同比仍不算低；但略低于一季 度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，环比也低于历史同期的季节性水平。这一数据和国内集装箱吞吐量数据也比较匹 配，5月5-25日集装箱吞吐量同比5.0%，略低于4月同比的7.3%。 第 二 ， 出 口 有 所 放 缓 的 主 要 原 因 是 什 么 ？ 很 显 然 ， 主 要 来 自 于 对 美 出 口 的 拖 累 。 5 月 对 美 出 口 同 比 为-34.5%，较前值的-21.0%进一步降幅扩大。关税和贸易环境不确定性的影响初步呈现。 第 三 ， 微 观 上 不 是 存 在 " 抢 出 口 " 的 特 征 么 ？ 在 前 期 报 告 中 我 们 做 出 过 解 释 ， 从 中 国 对 美 集 装 箱 发 船 （TRVSDCVN）来看，5月上中旬存在一定"抢出口"特征，但下旬再度转弱。我们理解可能是在关税缓和 后，海外进口商存在短期的库存加快回补；但由于预期尚不明朗，这一脉冲较快释放完毕。 第四， 为什么对美航运运价仍在上行？和TRV数据不太匹 ...