Market Overview - A-share market trading activity has decreased, with a slight decline in transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that incremental capital has not yet formed a consistent expectation in the short term, leading to a wide fluctuation in the market [1][4] - The overall A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with notable sector rotation. Benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and "anti-involution" policies, sectors such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals have seen substantial gains, while previously high-performing sectors like computers and communications have shown weakness [1] Economic Indicators - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year in USD terms, below the expected 5.9% and previous value of 7.2%. Imports grew by 1.3%, also below expectations [1] - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a drop of 33.1% in August, negatively impacting total exports by 5.1 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN exceeded previous values [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In August, China's CPI growth remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease to -0.4%. The PPI growth shifted from a decline to flat, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - Prices of pork and eggs have shown lower-than-seasonal increases, while some food prices continue to decline, affecting non-food items [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate - High-frequency data for August indicates a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate of petroleum asphalt and cement shipments. The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 300 billion yuan for the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, which will support infrastructure growth [3] - In the real estate sector, first-tier city housing prices have declined more than those in second and third-tier cities, with sales of commercial housing in 30 cities in August still needing improvement [3] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in August is expected to moderate. The previous year's "old-for-new" subsidy funds have been gradually distributed, but this year faces a high base environment and increased consumer sensitivity to price changes [3] Global Economic Context - Recent expectations for overseas interest rate cuts have risen, with the US adding only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 75,000 and previous 79,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [4] - Following the employment data release, the dollar index and US bond yields fell, while gold, US stocks, and copper prices surged. Market sentiment has shifted towards recession, with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year [4]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's exports in June amounted to 6.63 billion NZD, with the previous value revised from 7.68 billion NZD to 7.5 billion NZD [1] Group 1 - June exports reached 6.63 billion NZD [1] - The prior export value was adjusted from 7.68 billion NZD to 7.5 billion NZD [1]

Core Insights - South Korea's exports in July experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, a significant drop from the previous value of 8.3% [1] Group 1 - The export performance indicates a potential slowdown in South Korea's trade activities [1] - The decline in exports may reflect broader economic challenges faced by the country [1] - The previous year's strong export growth of 8.3% sets a high comparative benchmark, making the current decline more pronounced [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's exports in June experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, contrasting with institutional expectations of a 5.5% growth [1] Group 1 - The actual export performance fell short of expectations, indicating potential challenges in the Malaysian export sector [1] - The decline in exports may reflect broader economic conditions affecting trade dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's June exports decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, falling short of the expected increase of 0.5%, and improving slightly from the previous value of -1.7% [1] Summary by Category - **Export Performance** - June exports showed a decline of 0.5% compared to the same month last year [1] - The actual performance was below market expectations, which anticipated a growth of 0.5% [1] - The previous month's export figure was a decline of 1.7%, indicating a slight improvement in the current month [1]

Group 1 - Canada's May exports reached 60.81 billion Canadian dollars, showing an increase from the previously revised figure of 60.44 billion Canadian dollars to 60.12 billion Canadian dollars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's exports decreased by 2.7% in May, compared to a previous decline of 2.4% [1] Group 1 - The export decline indicates a potential slowdown in trade activity for Australia [1] - The change in export figures may impact the overall economic outlook for the country [1]

Core Insights - New Zealand's exports in May reached 7.68 billion NZD, a decrease from the previously revised figure of 7.7 billion NZD from an initial 7.84 billion NZD [1] Summary by Category - **Export Performance** - The export value for May was 7.68 billion NZD, indicating a decline compared to the revised previous value of 7.7 billion NZD [1] - The initial figure for the previous month was reported at 7.84 billion NZD, which was subsequently adjusted downwards [1]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating conditions at historical mid-high levels[1] - Cement shipments are at historical low levels, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[1] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and building materials demand below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices have rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold prices increasing[3] - Domestic industrial products, except for some chemicals and asphalt, show weak performance, indicating slight domestic demand fatigue[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have turned negative year-on-year, with a 30% decrease compared to 2023 and a 4% decrease compared to 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes show divergence, with Beijing up 12% and Shanghai down 19% compared to 2024[4] Exports - High-frequency export data indicates a rebound in the third week of June, but June exports are expected to decline by around 3% year-on-year[5] Liquidity - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with R007 at 1.59% and DR007 at 1.49% as of June 20[4] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 1,082.8 billion yuan in recent weeks[4]