Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Chinese yuan's strength and the resulting increase in foreign exchange settlement surplus in September 2025, indicating a positive sentiment towards RMB assets and a stable foreign exchange market [1][2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Its Effects - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1]. - This rate cut has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policies and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the RMB [1][2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate and Settlement Surplus - On October 30, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached 7.0955, the strongest level since November 4, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the critical 7.1 mark in October [1][6]. - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly up from $14.6 billion in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [5][6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Settlement Surplus - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the RMB leading to increased settlement demand and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has expanded the trade surplus [2][6][9]. - The total value of China's imports and exports in September was $566.68 billion, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion, supporting the settlement surplus [9]. Group 4: Corporate Behavior and Market Sentiment - There has been a notable increase in corporate willingness to settle in RMB, driven by the stable currency value and the desire to lock in profits amid a weakening dollar [6][11]. - The data indicates that banks' customer settlement in September was $258 billion, a significant increase, while customer sales were $206.2 billion, reflecting active trading behavior [9][10]. Group 5: Divergence in Foreign Payments - In September, there was a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB, contrasting with the settlement surplus, indicating different influences on these metrics [13][14]. - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion RMB in September, contributed to this divergence, as it affected the overall foreign payment balance [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policy and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Capital Flows - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important threshold of 7.1 [1] - In September 2025, the monthly settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] - The increase in settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for RMB assets among market participants, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Settlement Data - In September 2025, banks settled 188.09 billion RMB and sold 151.83 billion RMB, with a cumulative settlement of 13.27 trillion RMB and sales of 12.83 trillion RMB from January to September [2] - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, providing significant support for the settlement surplus [5] - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to both the stability of the RMB and the acceleration of export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [3][5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets have increased, reflecting a positive outlook on RMB assets, with net inflows of $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1] - The rise in settlement surplus indicates that market participants are optimistic about the RMB's future performance, suggesting a balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [6] - The increase in domestic outward investment has led to a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB in September, indicating active cross-border capital flows [7][8]