为什么人民币汇率升值加速？20260227 摘要 2025 年中国形成"贸易顺差+结售汇顺差"的双顺差格局，全年出口同 比增长 5.5%，贸易顺差突破 1 万亿美元创历史新高，结售汇顺差在 1 月和 12 月均达到约 1,000 亿美元量级，为人民币汇率走强提供外汇供 给基础。 美元信用体系受地缘博弈、金融制裁及美国财政扩张等因素扰动，国际 公信力趋势性下降，市场对美国债务可持续性及美元中长期信用产生疑 虑，促使部分主权资金减少美元资产持有。 市场预期已形成"关税冲击更易发生、但情绪更快修复"的框架，降低 了关税对人民币汇率情绪冲击的持续放大效应。2026 年美国最高法院 裁定特朗普政府加征关税违法，虽后续重新征税，但整体关税水平较裁 定前仍下降约 10%。 特朗普访华预期强化中美关系短期稳定，官方明确双方保持沟通，并预 期在重要国际场合继续会面，使得市场风险偏好改善，对人民币汇率形 成支撑。 2025 年末以来 A 股表现偏强，2026 年初至今外资总体呈持续流入，海 外对中国资产配置需求增强，对人民币形成顺周期支撑。 Q&A 2025 年 4 月以来人民币汇率与美元指数相关性明显弱化、呈现相对独立的偏 强 ...

背后或有以下原因：首先，2025年11月以来中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境改善，是这段时间人民币走强的一个重要背景。 人民币汇率三连涨。 2月26日，亚洲时段，在岸及离岸人民币兑美元双双升破6.84关口，离岸人民币更是升穿6.83，再度刷新2023年4月以来新高。 截至北京时间15点（下同），在岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.832，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8271。 今日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9228，调升93个基点，这已经是中间价连续第三日调升。 春节过后，美元指数出现明显下跌，人民币走强，美元兑离岸人民币从6.88826开盘之后，一路下跌，目前已经跌至最低6.8271，三个交易日人民兑美元上涨 超过600个基点。 自2025年12月底升破7.0这一整数关口后，2026年开年人民币汇率延续升值趋势，人民币兑美元一直处于7之下，今年离岸价最高为6.9957。2月以来，人民币 兑美元汇率中间价累计升值超过300个基点，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率今年升值幅度都超过2%。 对于近期人民币汇率的变化，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，节后人民币兑美元较快升值，延续了2025年12月以来的偏强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key to the settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December lies in the real return of trade cash flow rather than sentiment. The surge in exports directly boosts the bottom - line of foreign exchange settlement, with the supply side clearly dominant. Enterprises' behavior is more in line with business logic than exchange - rate speculation. Forward hedging is active without squeezing spot foreign exchange settlement, indicating that the market is mainly focused on stable hedging. The US dollar against the RMB is expected to decline slowly, and in the short - term, it may test the 6.90–6.95 range, with limited room for the US dollar to rebound [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Supply - Demand Relationship Analysis Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - In December 2025, the surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange significantly expanded to 1000.67 billion US dollars (bank settlement of 3179.60 billion US dollars and sale of 2178.93 billion US dollars), indicating a strong end - of - year supply of foreign exchange settlement. This is closely related to high - level export and cross - border payment activities, and the large trade surplus provides strong support for the RMB [9]. - The significant increase in the customer - side foreign exchange settlement momentum is the core of the surplus structure change. The surplus of bank customer - related settlement and sale of foreign exchange jumped to about 999.34 billion US dollars, reflecting the concentrated release of the real demand of domestic enterprises and institutions for foreign exchange settlement [10]. Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Willingness - In December, in the context of a stronger RMB and active trading in the spot market, enterprises' spot trading behavior became more rational. The average spot value of the US dollar against the RMB decreased by about 1.17% compared with November. The spot inquiry trading volume decreased to 345.59 billion US dollars, while the settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01% and the purchase rate of paid foreign exchange dropped to 55.41% [13]. - In December, both forward signing and performance increased, reflecting the enhanced demand for cross - period risk management and real - demand matching. Forward foreign exchange sales signing increased to 169.66 billion US dollars, and forward foreign exchange settlement signing rose to 524.32 billion US dollars. The performance on the execution side also strengthened, indicating that enterprises' foreign exchange layout focuses on cash - flow matching and exchange - rate risk management [14]. Analysis of Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange Structure Bank's Own Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In the macro - data analysis of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange, the bank's internal settlement and sale of foreign exchange activities, mainly including dividend payments, profit repatriation, and capital injection, have a small scale and are seasonal, with limited impact on the overall trend [18]. Bank Customer - Related Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December, the surplus of domestic bank customer - related cross - border payments and receipts in the current account significantly expanded. The current - account surplus increased from 552.38 billion US dollars to 1024.65 billion US dollars. The goods - trade surplus increased from 726.66 billion US dollars to 1259.22 billion US dollars, while the service - trade deficit expanded to - 85.34 billion US dollars, and the deficits in income and current transfer items deepened [22]. - In December, the capital and financial account turned from deficit to surplus, with net inflows from securities and other investments as important driving factors. The securities investment account turned from a deficit of 345.99 billion US dollars to a surplus of 108.15 billion US dollars, the direct - investment deficit slightly narrowed, and other investment accounts turned from deficit to surplus [22]. Deconstruction of December's Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange Securities Investment - In December, the trading volumes of north - bound and south - bound funds both decreased, indicating a wait - and - see attitude in cross - border equity asset allocation, with limited impact on foreign exchange supply and demand. The trading volumes of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased to 43563.02 billion yuan and 15900.50 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slowdown in trading rhythm [28]. Goods Trade - Amid the differentiation in domestic and foreign economic climates, China's manufacturing momentum marginally recovered, supporting export expectations and foreign exchange settlement willingness. In December, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.10, back above the boom - bust line, while the US PMI dropped to 51.80 and the eurozone's to 48.80 [34]. - In December, imports and exports rebounded more than expected, and the annual trade surplus reached a record high of 1.2 trillion US dollars. High - tech product exports increased by 13.2% year - on - year, with industrial robots, lithium batteries, and wind - power equipment showing high growth. However, the intensity of foreign exchange settlement is restricted by enterprises' "demand - based foreign exchange" strategy and the relative attractiveness of US dollar interest rates [35].

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant monthly foreign exchange settlement surplus of $99.9 billion, marking a historical high, which translates to over 700 billion RMB [6][9] - The surplus indicates that the market is converting more USD into RMB, leading to an influx of liquidity into the domestic financial system, surpassing the central bank's recent liquidity injections [9][10] - The implications of this surplus include potential upward pressure on A-shares due to increased foreign investment, while it may negatively impact long-term bond rates and the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets [10][12] Group 2 - The article highlights the recent significant net selling of broad-based ETFs, indicating a cooling of market sentiment, which is viewed positively as it may help eliminate one-sided expectations [14][17] - It emphasizes the importance of underlying logic and core contradictions in determining asset price trends, suggesting that external noise should not distract from fundamental market dynamics [18][19] Group 3 - Several key stock announcements are discussed, including a reduction in shares by Jiangbolong, which is seen as a negative signal for the storage chip sector, and a mixed outlook for Shenghong Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang in the AI hardware space [22][23][24] - The article also mentions a reduction in holdings by Yuexiu Capital in CITIC Securities and an investigation into Rongbai Technology, which raises concerns about market integrity [25][26] Group 4 - The article notes significant fluctuations in silver prices, with a recent volatility exceeding 15%, and highlights the gold/silver ratio reaching its lowest level since 2012, suggesting potential changes in the relative value of silver [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, reaching a high of 7.06440, indicating a trend of independent movement away from the USD index since September 2023 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has shown an overall appreciation trend against the USD this year, increasing by 3.59% year-to-date, while depreciating against the Euro by 8% and the GBP by 2% [1] - Since mid-September, despite a rebound in the USD, the RMB has continued to appreciate slightly against both the USD and other major currencies, reflecting a complex exchange rate dynamic amid global trade restructuring [1] Group 2: Trade and Foreign Exchange Dynamics - China's trade remains robust, with total imports and exports reaching $5.26 trillion, a growth of 7.7%, and a trade surplus of $727.7 billion, expanding by 43.8% [2] - The significant increase in bank settlement surplus, with September's surplus reaching $51 billion, the largest monthly surplus since December 2020, indicates strong foreign exchange inflows [2][3] Group 3: Influencing Factors on Market Expectations - The decline of the USD index by 8.33% this year has led to a loss of patience among companies holding USD, contributing to the large settlement surplus [3] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts, have influenced the USD's depreciation and the RMB's appreciation [3][4] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair with a focus on immediate rate cuts could further impact market expectations and the USD's value [4] Group 4: Regulatory Influence on RMB Valuation - Regulatory actions, such as the issuance of central bank bills, suggest a preference for a controlled appreciation of the RMB, reducing risks associated with bullish positions on the currency [5] - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed not only to the USD's decline but also to internal factors, although uncertainties remain regarding future export strength and external demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Chinese yuan's strength and the resulting increase in foreign exchange settlement surplus in September 2025, indicating a positive sentiment towards RMB assets and a stable foreign exchange market [1][2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut and Its Effects - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1]. - This rate cut has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policies and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the RMB [1][2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate and Settlement Surplus - On October 30, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reached 7.0955, the strongest level since November 4, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the critical 7.1 mark in October [1][6]. - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly up from $14.6 billion in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [5][6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Settlement Surplus - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the RMB leading to increased settlement demand and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has expanded the trade surplus [2][6][9]. - The total value of China's imports and exports in September was $566.68 billion, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion, supporting the settlement surplus [9]. Group 4: Corporate Behavior and Market Sentiment - There has been a notable increase in corporate willingness to settle in RMB, driven by the stable currency value and the desire to lock in profits amid a weakening dollar [6][11]. - The data indicates that banks' customer settlement in September was $258 billion, a significant increase, while customer sales were $206.2 billion, reflecting active trading behavior [9][10]. Group 5: Divergence in Foreign Payments - In September, there was a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB, contrasting with the settlement surplus, indicating different influences on these metrics [13][14]. - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion RMB in September, contributed to this divergence, as it affected the overall foreign payment balance [14].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, which has contributed to a weaker US dollar and a stronger Chinese yuan [1] - The yuan's midpoint rate has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important 7.1 level in October, leading to increased demand for yuan settlement [1][3] - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in the settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the yuan and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [1][4] - The data indicates that in September, banks' customer settlement increased to $25.8 billion, a rise of $54.8 billion month-on-month, while customer sales rose to $20.6 billion, an increase of $17.5 billion [4] - The overall settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for yuan assets among market participants, driven by the favorable valuation and growth potential of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 3 - In September, China's total import and export value reached $566.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion providing crucial support for the settlement surplus [6] - The divergence between foreign exchange receipts and payments indicates a shift, with a recorded deficit of 22 billion yuan in September, influenced by seasonal factors and increased foreign investment [7][8] - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion yuan in September, has contributed to the deficit in foreign exchange payments, despite a growing surplus in trade [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policy and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Capital Flows - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important threshold of 7.1 [1] - In September 2025, the monthly settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] - The increase in settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for RMB assets among market participants, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Settlement Data - In September 2025, banks settled 188.09 billion RMB and sold 151.83 billion RMB, with a cumulative settlement of 13.27 trillion RMB and sales of 12.83 trillion RMB from January to September [2] - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, providing significant support for the settlement surplus [5] - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to both the stability of the RMB and the acceleration of export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [3][5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets have increased, reflecting a positive outlook on RMB assets, with net inflows of $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1] - The rise in settlement surplus indicates that market participants are optimistic about the RMB's future performance, suggesting a balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [6] - The increase in domestic outward investment has led to a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB in September, indicating active cross-border capital flows [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in China's foreign exchange settlement and sales data for September, which reached a surplus of 51.1 billion USD, the highest since January 2021, indicating a growing confidence in RMB assets and a potential bullish trend in the A-share market [3][12][16]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Data - In September, the foreign exchange settlement surplus reached 51.1 billion USD, contributing to a total surplus of 63.2 billion USD from January to September [3][4]. - The increase in surplus suggests that more foreign exchange is flowing back into China, indicating a favorable market sentiment towards RMB assets [7][12]. Group 2: Reasons for Surplus - The surplus can be attributed to two main factors: foreign capital flowing into the Chinese market and domestic entities converting their foreign currency into RMB due to expectations of RMB appreciation [8][10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September have led to expectations of a weaker USD, prompting investors to prefer holding RMB [9][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The strong performance of the A-share market has encouraged investors to seek higher returns in domestic equities rather than holding USD in fixed deposits [10][12]. - Historical trends show that when the domestic stock and real estate markets perform well, there is a tendency for increased RMB holdings, leading to improved settlement and sales data [11][12]. Group 4: Capital Inflow - In the first three quarters of the year, China's cross-border capital showed a net inflow of 119.7 billion USD, indicating strong international interest in the Chinese market [13][14]. - The current liquidity situation in the A-share market has improved, attracting both domestic and foreign capital, which is expected to lead to a prolonged bullish market trend [15][16].

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in the foreign exchange settlement surplus in September, reaching $51.1 billion, the highest since January 2021 [3][4]. - The total surplus for the first nine months of the year is $63.2 billion, indicating that September alone contributed a substantial portion to this figure [3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Settlement Data - The September foreign exchange settlement data shows a surplus, indicating that the inflow of foreign currency into banks exceeded the outflow [7]. - The increase in surplus can be attributed to two main factors: foreign capital flowing into the Chinese market and domestic entities converting foreign currency into RMB due to expectations of RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The decline in the willingness to hold USD is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which suggest a long-term weakening of the dollar [9]. - In contrast, the RMB is expected to appreciate over the next year, prompting investors to prefer holding RMB over USD [10]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has led investors to seek higher returns in domestic equities rather than keeping funds in USD-denominated accounts [10]. Group 3: Implications for Capital Markets - Historical patterns indicate that when domestic markets perform well or when there is an expectation of RMB appreciation, there is a tendency for increased holding of RMB, leading to favorable settlement data [12]. - The September surplus of $51.1 billion signals growing confidence in RMB assets from both domestic and foreign investors [12][14]. - The overall net inflow of cross-border capital for the first three quarters of the year reached $119.7 billion, further demonstrating the attractiveness of the Chinese market to international funds [13][14]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The influx of capital into the A-share market suggests a potential long-term bullish trend for the market [15][16]. - The article implies that the current liquidity situation in the A-share market has improved, making it more appealing to both domestic and foreign investors [15].