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谷歌本周审厂?液冷放量元年在即—2026年行业逻辑梳理及出海展望
傅里叶的猫· 2025-12-15 13:16
Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling industry is expected to experience rapid demand growth starting in 2026, while supply will lag behind, creating a highly favorable market environment for early movers in the sector [17]. Demand Side - As the power consumption of AI computing cards and cabinets increases, traditional air cooling solutions become inadequate, necessitating the adoption of liquid cooling solutions for effective heat dissipation. Specifically, cabinets with power consumption exceeding 35-40KW cannot utilize air cooling [4]. - North America faces severe electricity shortages, and liquid cooling can significantly reduce Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE), thereby saving energy costs and alleviating delays in data center projects caused by power shortages. Liquid cooling solutions can achieve a PUE of less than 1.2 [4]. - Many data centers in North America are located near economic centers or residential areas, and liquid cooling can significantly reduce noise levels compared to air cooling, accelerating project implementation and reducing financial costs [6]. Supply Side - The supply landscape for liquid cooling in North America is currently dominated by American and Taiwanese manufacturers, with limited participation from mainland Chinese firms. The primary technology used is cold plate liquid cooling, which accounts for over 98% of the market [11]. - The verification process for liquid cooling products is lengthy and complex, creating high barriers to entry for new suppliers. This process can take anywhere from six months to two years, making it challenging for many manufacturers to enter the market [11]. Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA is projected to ship 100,000 cabinets of the GB series (primarily GB300) by 2026, with a liquid cooling value per cabinet estimated at $90,000 to $100,000, leading to a total liquid cooling value of approximately $10 billion [7]. - Google is expected to ship 2.2 to 2.3 million TPU V7 and above chips by 2026, translating to a need for around 35,000 cabinets with liquid cooling solutions, with a total liquid cooling value estimated at $2.6 billion [9]. - Meta anticipates shipping 1 million MTIA V2 chips, requiring about 14,000 cabinets, with a projected liquid cooling value of approximately $1.05 billion [10]. - Amazon's AWS Trainium3 is expected to ship 1.2 million chips, corresponding to around 16,000 cabinets, with an estimated liquid cooling value of $1.25 billion [10]. Market Opportunities for Mainland Chinese Manufacturers - North American CSP technology companies are increasingly looking to mainland Chinese liquid cooling manufacturers to ensure supply chain security, as existing production capacities in North America and Taiwan may not meet the surging demand by 2026 [13]. - Mainland Chinese manufacturers can offer liquid cooling products at a lower cost compared to their foreign counterparts, potentially enhancing project profitability for data centers [13]. - Some leading mainland Chinese manufacturers possess competitive technological advantages in liquid cooling products, which can improve the efficiency of downstream data center products [13]. Future Outlook - The liquid cooling industry is expected to see a significant increase in demand starting in 2026, with early adopters benefiting from the first wave of industry growth. The process of engaging with overseas manufacturers, obtaining samples, and securing initial orders will be crucial for companies looking to capitalize on this trend [17].